2016 State Meet Predictions

RunWV Predictions
Class AA Boys

Class AA Boys Individual Event Predictions

100 M 1. Carlos Reed Bluefield
2. Kade Sebastian Wayne
3. Donovan Spencer Weir
4. Latrell Collier Bluefield
5. Jacob O'Dell Nicholas
6. Matt Ryan Summers
Reed has the top time in the group, is the only one with multiple runs under 11 seconds,
and is the defending champion. Sebastian has the only other run under 11 seconds and the
best overall series of times. Spencer has a pair of runs under 11.20 and was the runner-up
last year. Collier had a pair of really strong runs at his Regional. O'Dell has a better
top time and a better series than Collier. Ryan has the next best series. Four in the
field have been under 11.20. 6 have been under 11.25.

200 M 1. Donovan Spencer Weir
2. Kade Sebastian Wayne
3. Cody Southerly Petersburg
4. Jacob O'Dell Nicholas
5. Bryce McGee Philip Barbour
6. Latrell Collier Bluefield
Spencer has the top time in the field by over 0.3 seconds and is the only one with mulitple
runs under 23 seconds, of which he has four. Sebstastian has easily the 2nd best top time
in the group and the 2nd best series. Southerly has the only other run under 23 seconds
and had two very strong runs at his Regional. O'Dell has the next best series of times.
McGee has the 4th best top time. Collier looked very good at his Regional. While only
three have been under 23 seconds, seven have been under 23.15.

400 M 1. Trevor Armes Clay
2. Nicholas Dolan Scott
3. Bryce McGee Philip Barbour
4. Oliver Amick Nicholas
5. Cameron Gibson East Fairmont
6. Triston Hager Herbert Hoover
Armes has the only run under 51 seconds and has three runs under 51.50 and four under 52.
Dolan has the next best top time. McGeeis the only one other than Armes with a pair of
runs under 52 seconds. Amick has the next best top time. Gibson has a better overall
series than Amick. Hager and Gibson have the same top time with Gibson having a slightly
better overall series. 6 have been under 52 seconds, but only two have done it twice.
10 have been under 52.50, and six have done it more than once. Eight have at least three
runs under 53 seconds.

800 M 1. Steven Shetler Berkeley Springs
2. Jackson Reed Nicholas
3. Ian Frailey Bridgeport
4. Daniel Cooper Ritchie
5. Brady Price Berkeley Springs
6. Trevor Armes Clay
Shetler is the only one to have been under 2:00. He has the best time in the field by over
2 seconds. Reed is the only one in the field with two runs under 2:02. Frailey has the
next best top time. Cooper was the top returning placer from a year ago and unlike the
three above, he won't have raced the 1600 in the morning session. He could win it. Price
has a better top time than Cooper, but Cooper has a better series. Armes only has the 8th
best top time in the field, but with his 400 speed, he's also a threat to win the event.
I didn't want to leave him out.

1600 M 1. Austin Hayes Webster
2. Jackson Reed Nicholas
3. Jimmy Lacaria Bridgeport
4. Ian Frailey Bridgeport
5. Steven Shetler Berkeley Springs
6. Matt Chapman Berkeley Springs
Hayes has the top time in the group. Reed has the only other run under 4:30 and the best
series in the field. Lacaria has the next best series. Frailey has a better top time
than Lacaria. Shetler has a better series than Frailey. Chapman has more runs under 4:40
than Frailey. This leaves out Hunter Deem who also has a better series than Frailey and
has three runs under 4:40. This one should be hotly contesed. The top 7 are separated by
just 5.37 seconds. The top 5 are separated by just 2.36 seconds. The top 7 have been under
4:35. 9 have been under 4:40. 5 have been under 4:35 twice. 6 have been under 4:40 three
times.

3200 M 1. Jimmy Lacaria Bridgeport
2. Jackson Reed Nicholas
3. Hunter Deem Ritchie
4. Mark Ellis East Fairmont
5. Mark Duez Bridgeport
6. Leland Henderson Keyser
Lacaria has the top time in the field by nearly 8 seconds and has a pair of runs under
anyone else's best. Reed has a pair of runs under 9:50 and four under 10:00 and has done
most of his work as solo runs. Deem has three runs under under 10:00. Ellis has the only
other run under 10:00. Duez has the next best top time and the next best series. Henderson
has the next best time and the next best series and was 3rd a year ago. Only 7 in the
field have been under 10:20.

110 HH 1. Deavonte Johnson Keyser
2. Shawn Arthur Poca
3. Brian Curry Fairmont Senior
4. Tristenn Cochran Grafton
5. Tariq Bailey Robert C. Byrd
6. Haden Coon Roane
Johnson has the top time in the field by 0.25 seconds and has three runs better than anyone
else's best. Arthur only has 3 FAT runs to his credit, but they're all 15.85 or better, and
he has the 2nd best top time in the group. Curry has the 3rd best top time and is one of
just two with five runs under 16 seconds. Cochran has a pair of runs under 16 seconds.
Bailey has the next best top time and the next best series. Coon is only slightly off
Bailey in top time and series. It's very close. Four in the field have been under 16
seconds, and they have all been under 15.60. 6 have been under 16.20. 9 have been 16.50
or better.

300 IH 1. Deovanta Johnson Keyser
2. Tristenn Cochran Grafton
3. Cordell Nix Lincoln
4. Juvenal Perez Nicholas
5. Chris Cottrell Sissonville
6. Michael Gaskill East Fairmont
Johnson has the only run under 41 seconds and has a pair of runs better than anyone else's
best. Cochran has the next best top time with his strong Regional Run. Nix has a better
series than Cochran, but Cochran won the Regional battle. Perez is one of just two in the
field with a pair of runs under 42 seconds, but barely qualified and will be running in
lane 7 of the first heat. Cottrell has the next best top time, just ahead of Gaskill.
Gaskill has a better overall series than Cottrell, but Cottrell gets him on the top 2
performances in the series. 4 in the field have been under 42 seconds. 7 have been under
43 seconds.

4x100 M 1. Bluefield
2. Robert C. Byrd
3. Keyser
4. Weir
5. Bridgeport
6. Fairmont Senior
Bluefield has the top time in the field and three runs better than anyone else's best.
Robert C. Byrd has the 2nd best top time and is the only other team with more than one
run under 45 seconds. Keyser has the next best top time and series. Weir is one of just
three with a pair of runs under 45 seconds. Bridgeport has the next best top time.
Fairmont Senior has a better series than Bridgeport with three runs under 46 seconds.

4x200 M 1. Bluefield
2. Keyser
3. Fairmont Senior
4. East Fairmont
5. Petersburg
6. Weir
Bluefield has the top time in the field by almost 1.7 seconds. The next four spots are
very tight with Regional times separating them by just 0.19 seconds. Keyser had the best
Regional time, so they get the nod. Fairmont Senior's top time is better than Keyser's
Regional time. Petersburg's Regional time was better than Fairmont Senior's. Weir has
the next best top time. 8 have been under 1:36, and I think another is likely to eclipse
that mark with a personnel change.

4x400 M 1. Nicholas
2. East Fairmont
3. Keyser
4. Bridgeport
5. Lincoln
6. Oak Glen
I have Nicholas and East Fairmont with equivalent potential. I went with Nicholas because
they have been faster so far and because they have the option to add Juvenal Perez to the
lineup. I don't know for sure that he helps, but he runs the 300's under 42, so the
potential is there. I show Keyser with the next best potential. I think Bridgeport has
upward mobility here. Lincoln has been faster than Bridgeport. Oak Glen has the next
best time.

4x800 M 1. Berkeley Springs
2. Oak Glen
3. Bridgeport
4. Ritchie
5. East Fairmont
6. Webster
I think this ends up being a really good race. I have Berkeley Springs with the most
potential. Oak Glen has already ran 8:18. I'm not sure how...but they have, and also
have an 8:21 to go with it. No one else has been under 8:25. Bridgeport will be very
dangerous in this event. Ritchie and East Fairmont had a very close outing at their
Regional Meet. I think all five of these teams have a shot to go under 8:20. Webster
doesn't have the next best time, but I think they have more upside.

Shuttle 1. Keyser
2. Fairmont Senior
3. North Marion
4. Nicholas
5. Robert C. Byrd
6. Independence
Keyser has the top time in the field and has four runs under 61 seconds. Fairmont Senior
is the only other team to have been under 61 seconds. North Marion has the next best time
and a pair of runs under 62. Nicholas has the next best top time and a pair of runs under
62.3 seconds. Robert C. Byrd had the next best Regional run. Independence has a better
top time than Robert C. Byrd and a better series, but most of that was with Austin Weis
who only competed in 1 event at the Regional.

H Jump 1. Shawn Arthur Poca
2. Franklin Thomas North Marion
3. Austin McGinnis Roane
4. Jacob Nuzum East Fairmont
5. Cody Southerly Petersburg
6. Connor Boothe James Monroe
Arthur has a trio of 6'6 jumps, including one at the Regional. No one else has been higher
than 6'3. Thomas has a 6'3 jump and a pair of 6'2 jumps. McGinnis has a pair of 6'2 jumps
and three 6'0 jumps. Nutuzm has a pair of 6'0 jump and was the runner-up last year.
Southerly has a 5'11 jump and at least four 5'10 jumps. Boothe has a 6'0 jump but only one
other jump of 5'10. Only five in the field have jumped 6'0, but 12 have jumped 5'10.

P Vault 1. Austin Garrett Ritchie
2. Haden Coon Roane
3. Zach Hoskinson Robert C. Byrd
4. Joshua Osborne Bridgeport
5. Ethen Whitlock Keyser
6. Robert Horner Keyser
Garrett has a 15'0 vault and three 14'6 vaults and is the defending champion. Coon is the
only other one with multiple vaults higher than 12'0 and the only other one with a full
series of 12'0 vaults. Hoskinson has a better top vault with a 13'1, but he has only one
other clearance of 12'0. Osborne is the only other one to have a 12'0 vault and has a full
series of 11'6 vaults. Whitlock has three 11'6 vaults. Horner has an 11'6 vault and a
full series of 11'0 vaults. 7 in the field have cleared 11'6.

L Jump 1. Michael Gaskill East Fairmont
2. Aaron Banks Mingo Central
3. Marcus Guy Independence
4. Shawn Arthur Poca
5. Garrett Moore Mingo Central
6. Amonte Turner Keyser
Another year and another big batch of question marks in the long jump. Gaskill has the
best series and is one of just two with four 20'0 jumps. He was also 2nd in the event
last year. Banks has the best top jump in the field. Guy is the other with four 20'0
jumps. Arther has a pair of 20'0 jumps. Moore is the only other one to have hit 20'0.
Turner tied for the 2nd best Regional jump and finished 3rd in the event last year. He
lost much of the early part of the season to injury. Only five in the field have topped
20'0. 10 have gone 19'6, and 15 have gone 19'0. 8 have gone 19'6 at least twice.

Shot 1. Chase Dotson Poca
2. Luke Bonnett Braxton
3. Juwan Jones-Wright Robert C. Byrd
4. Roger Smallwood East Fairmont
5. Jacob Griffith Bridgeport
6. Cameron Currence Braxton
Dotson has the top throw in the field by over 5'. His 5th best throw is nearly 2' ahead
of anyone else's best. Bonnett is the only other one in the field to have thrown 50'0,
which he did at his regional. Jones-Wright has a better series than Bonnett and placed
third last year. Smallwood has a 47' thrown and a 46' throw. Griffith only has the 7th
best top throw, but is also just one of four in the field with three throws of at least
45'. Currence threw 48'0 at the Regional, which is the 4th best top throw, but his 2nd
best throw is just 43'5. 8 have thrown at least 44'0.

Discus 1. Chase Dotson Poca
2. Jordan Gump Lincoln
3. Lucas Bonnett Braxton
4. Christopher Trent Bridgeport
5. Jacob Griffith Bridgeport
6. Cole Weaver Keyser
Discus throwers imploded left and right at the regionals with four of the top 10 not
advancing to the State Meet. Dotson is the only one to have topped 150', which he's done
three times. His top throw is 17'1 ahead of anyone else's best. Gump has the only other
140' throw in the field and is one of just two with five 130' throws. Bonnett has a pair
of throws over 135' and four over 130'. Trent has three throws of at least 132'0 and beat
Gump at the Regional. Griffith has a pair of throws over 125'0. Weaver has a better top
throw than Griffith and also has a pair of throws over 125'0, but Griffith has a better
overall series and beat him at the Regional. 7 in the field have thrown at least 125'.
12 have thrown at least 121'0.

High Point Predictions
1. Jackson Reed Nicholas 26.50
2. Deavonte Johnson Keyser 24
3. Shawn Arthur Poca 22
4. Chase Dotson Poca 20
5. Jimmy Lacaria Bridgeport 18.50