Class AAA Girls Individual Event Predictions
 
Individual Predictions
 
100 M	1.  Anacia Hines	St. Albans
	2.  Safiyyah Mitchell	Huntington
	3.  Nakysha McGhee	Wheeling Park
	4.  Tyra Massey		Shady Spring
	5.  Emily Ambuul	Hedgesville
	6.  Caylee Painter	Ripley
Pretty tough calls here.  Hines has 3 times better than anyone else's best.  6 in the
field have been under 12.70.  Mitchell has been there 3 times.  McGhee and Massey have
been there twice.  Ambuul is one of just 3 to have been under 12.60.  Painter has turned
in a pair ov very good times late in the season.  11 in the field have been under 12.90.

200 M	1.  Anacia Hines	St. Albans
	2.  Tyra Massey		Shady Spring
	3.  Safiyyah Mitchell	Huntington
	4.  Emily Ambuul	Hedgesville
	5.  Nakysha McGhee	Wheeling Park
	6.  Jahmia Bridges-Butler Morgantown
Hines again has three times better than anyone else's best.  Massey run under 26 twice at
her Regional meet.  Mtchell has the 2nd best time in the field.  Ambuul has put in
three runs under 26.40 in her last two meets.  McGhee is the 4th one in the field to
have been under 26 seconds.  Bridges-Butler has 3 runs under 26.50.  12 in the field
has been under 27 seconds.

400 M	1.  Anna Gordon		Hurricane
	2.  Mary Zulauf		Winfield
	3.  Alyssa Long		Cabell Midland
	4.  Natalie Weithe	Wheeling Park
	5.  Rhonda Rogombe	Washington
	6.  Mollie Ambuul	Hedgesville
Gordon has the top time in the field and is one of just two with three runs under 60
seconds and the only one with 2 runs under 59.  Zulauf is the only other one with three
runs under 60 seconds.  Long has the 2nd best time in the field and beat both Gordon
and Zulauf at the Regional.  Weight has the 3rd best time in the field.  Rogombe is
very dangerous, and she and Ambuul have the only other sub-60 runs in the field.
Only those six have been under 60, but 12 have been under 61.  Rogombe and Ambuul will
have to try to do their damage from the first heat, but they'll be able to push each other.

800 M	1.  Anna Gordon		Hurricane
	2.  Mary Zulauf		Winfield
	3.  Abby Colbert	Jefferson
	4.  Skylar Brooks	Morgantown
	5.  Alyssa Long		Cabell Midland
	6.  Olivia Underwood	Elkins
Gordon is the only one under the field to have been under 2:20.  Zulauf only has the
4th best time, butI think the speed is going to be a factor, and she'll have more rest
than she sypically does.  Colbert has the 2nd best time in the field, and likely won't
be as expended as she has been in the past from the 1600, and she has the most runs under
2:25 in the field.  Brooks has the 3rd best time in the field nad is one of just 3 to
have three runs under 2:26.  Long only has her Regional run that was under 2:30, but 
it was under 2:25 and she has that sub-59 400 speed.  Underwood ran 2:26.87 at the Regional
and will have much more rest at the State Meet.  6 have been under 2:25.  9 have been
under 2:27.  

1600 M	1.  Abby Colbert	Jefferson
	2.  Victoria Cooke	Morgantown
	3.  Olivia Underwood	Elkins
	4.  Emily Louk		Lewis
	5.  TaShala Turner	University
	6.  Jessie Hogbin	Hedgesville
Colbert has only run it 3 times this year, but all three runs were better than anyone
else's best.  Cooke is the only other one with with two under 5:20.  Underwood and Louk
were within the proverbial spitting distance of Colbert at the Regional and have top
times that are better thank Cooke's.  Turner and Hogbin have the next best top times.
4 have been under 5:20.  7 have been under 5:25.  9 have been under 5:30.

3200 M	1.  Abby Colbert	Jefferson
	2.  Jessie Hogbin	Hedgesville
	3.  Emily Fedders	Woodrow Wilson
	4.  TaShala Turner	University
	5.  Victoria Cooke	Morgantown
	6.  Hannah Lipps	Hampshire
As with the 1600, with Peyton Panger not in the mix, Colbert is the clear favorite.
She'd have been the favorite here anyway...but that made it easy.  Hogbin ran extremely
well a the Regional Meet and has the only other run under 11:20.  Fedders always seems
to run well at the State Meet.  Turner has a top time that nearly equals Fedders.  Cooke
only has the # 7 time in the group, but it's a case in which I think there's plenty more
in the tank and even 2nd isn't out of the question.  Lipps actually has the 3rd best
top time in the group, but I fear that the top end speed isn't quite as strong for her
and if it comes down to a final lap kick, she may draw the short straw.  That being said,
getting 2nd isn't out of the question either.  6 have been under 11:30.  8 have been
under 11:40.

100 HH	1.  Anacia Hines	St. Albans
	2.  Malika Houston	George Washington
	3.  Audrey Barber	Hurricane
	4.  Sarah Bever		Parkersburg
	5.  Jahmia Bridges-Butler Morgantown
	6.  Torie Derrow	John Marshall
Earlier this year, Hines ran the State's All-Time Best time with a 14.36.  She has 4
other runs under 14.80.  No one else has been under 14.80.  While she isn't unbeaten,
she's clearly the favorite.  After that, it gets very messy.  The next five have top
times that are between 14.80 and 15.06, but none of them have been under 15.00 twice.
Houston's three best runs have come in her last three meets.  Barber had the 2nd best
Regional run in the group.  Bever has the 2nd best top time in the group.  Bridges-Butler
gets the nod over Derrow having edged her at the Regional.  She also edged (by less than
0.01) Bever at the Regional.  Derrow, after a slow (for her) start to the season is coming
on strong late and is definitely a top 3 threat.

 
300 LH	1.  Safiyyah Mitchell	Huntington
	2.  Mallory Baker	Greenbrier East
	3.  Malika Houston	George Washington
	4.  Sarah Bever		Parkersburg
	5.  Ripley Haney	Cabell Midland
	6.  Cristin Dolan	Wheeling Park
This is really close to a toss8-up.  Less than half a second separates the top 4.  I
went with Mitchell because she has the best series.  Baker has the top time in the 
group.  Houston was very fast at the Gazette Relays.  Bever is one of three with three
runs under 47 and was runner-up last year.  Haney has four runs under 48.  Dolan has
three runs under 48.

4x100 M	1.  Wheeling Park
	2.  Brooke
	3.  Jefferson
	4.  Winfield
	5.  Huntington
	6.  Martinsburg
Things get interesting in the relays as there are always "moves" teams can make to 
improve a relay.  Wheeling Park has run under 50 seconds twice, and no one else has
been under 50.40.  Brooke has then next best time.  Jefferson has been under 51 a
couple times.  Winfield has been udner 51 four times, but Jefferson's top two times
are better than Winfield's best.  Huntington and Martinsburg have been under 51.
A fully loaded Hurricane could place in the top 3, but looking at the lineups, I'm
guessing they don't use it here.  

4x200 M	1.  Wheeling Park
	2.  Hurricane
	3.  Winfield
	4.  Hedgesville
	5.  Spring Mills
	6.  Brooke
Wheeling Park is the only team to have been under 1:45.  Hurricane has the next best
top time in the group.  Winfield only has the 4th best top time and the 6th best 
Regional run, but this is one of those places where I think moves can be made.  
Hedgesville had the fastest Regional time, so a move up is very, very possible.  Spring
Mills was just 0.01 off Hedgesville at the Regional.  Brooke has also has a run under
1:46.5.  No one else has run under 1:48.

4x400 M	1.  Winfield
	2.  Cabell Midland
	3.  Spring Mills
	4.  Brooke
	5.  Greenbrier East
	6.  Hedgesville
So, I look at the potential lineups, and sometimes I see things that aren't there.
Sometimes I expect moves that don't get made.  Sometimes it makes me look smart, and
sometimes it makes me look stupid.  That being said, here goes.  I look at what Winfield
can do and I see a 4:04.  Here's the even tougher part.  They'll have to do it from
the first heat.  I have Cabell Midland at a 4:06.  Spring Mills has already run a 4:07,
the top time in the field by over a second, so I'm probably short-changing them.  Brooke
has already run a 4:08, so they could certainly move up.  Greenbrier East is my other
wildcard.  I look at that lineup, and I think they can run 4:08.  They'll be running
in the first heat as well, and they and Winfield should be able to help each other.  
Hedgesville gets the nod for the last spot.  I have 8 teams that I think can go 4:10
or better.

4x800 M	1.  Winfield
	2.  Morgantown
	3.  Hurricane
	4.  University
	5.  Jefferson
	6.  Parkersburg
Winfield ran 9:48 at the Gazette Relays and has a top time nearly 9 seconds ahead of
anyone else.  They may have to go faster to win.  Morgantown can push 9:50.  I think
a loaded Hurricane hits very close to 9:50.  University is one of just three to have
been under 10:00.  They'll be in the mex as well.  Jefferson went 10:10 without Abby
Colbert.  I think she moves into the lineup and takes them under 10:00.  Parkersburg
gets the nod for the 6th spot, though I do have another team that has the potential
to knock them off.  We could get 7 teams under 10:00.

Shuttle	1.  Hurricane
	2.  Parkersburg
	3.  Winfield
	4.  Wheeling Park
	5.  Ripley
	6.  Jefferson
Hurricane set an all-time state best with a 1:02.07 at the Gazette Relays.  They ran
a 1:03.20 with a slightly different lineup at the Regional.  I'm guessing they run
their regional lineup...and they still win it.  Parkersburg is the only other team
to have run under 1:04.  Winfield has a pair of runs under 1:05.  Wheeling Park is
the only other team to have gone under 1:06.  Ripley is the only other team to have
gone under 1:07.  There are four others who have been under 1:08, but Jefferson gets
the nod with the best time in the group and the best Regional run of the group.

H Jump	1.  Rhomda Rogombe	Washington
	2.  Laurel Miller	Ripley
	3.  Torie Derrow	John Marshall
	4.  Carly Hinkle	Winfield
	5.  Sarah Bever		Parkersburg
	6.  Hannah Cartwright	Winfield
Rogombe tied an All-Time State mark in April with a 5'10 jump, and had a 5'9 Regional
jump to back that up.  Miller has a 5'8 and a 5'7 jump.  Derrow has a pair of 5'6
jumps.  Hinkle has a 5'6, and at least four 5'4 jumps.  Bever has three 5'4 jumps,
but hsan't hit 5'4 since April 18th.  Cartwright is the only other jumper to have
cleared 5'4.  9 in the field have cleared 5'2.

P Vault	1.  Lauren London	Hurricane
	2.  Allie Perry		Winfield
	3.  Haley Snodgrass	Capital
	4.  Morgan Gray		Winfield
	5.  Carmine Guynn	Washington
	6.  Shannon Riley	Winfield
London and Perry have both cleared 11'0, but London cleared it at the Regional and
has a pair of 10'6 vaults to go with it.  Perry has a 10'6 and a 10'0 vault.  Snodgrass
has three 10'6 vaults.  Gray has four 10'0 vaults.  Guynn has three 10'0 vaults, and
Riley has a pair of 10'0 vaults. There are 7 in the field that have cleared 10'0.  

L Jump	1.  Malika Houston	George Washington
	2.  Sydnei Taylor	Spring Mills
	3.  Audrey Barber	Hurricane
	4.  Lauren London	Hurricane
	5.  Annalisa Huckaby	Morgantown
	6.  Maddie McClintic	Greenbrier East
I hate, hate, hate picking the long jump.  There are certain venues in the State that
are "jumper havens" where people just 6-12" further than they do anywhere else.  I went
with Houston because she actually has a pair of 17'0 jumps at Laidley Field.  Taylor
has three jumps over 17'0.  Barber only has the 8th best top jump in the field, but has
very good jumps at Laidley and a runner-up finish last year.  London topped 17'0 at the
Gazette Relays, beating Houston in the process.  Huckaby has three jumps over 16'6.
McClintic won the event last year, and while she only has the 9th best jump, she 
certainly can't be discounted.  13 of the 16 jumpers in the field have hit 16' on
the season.  10 of them have hit 16' at least twice.  9 of them have hit it at least
3 times.  8 have hit it 4 times, and six of them have done it at least five times.
Houston has five jumps of at least 16'8.
 
Shot	1.  Abby Watson		Hurricane
	2.  Ericka Budd		Huntington
	3.  Rosa Morris		Morgantown
	4.  Megan Wilfong	Buckhannon-Upshur
	5.  Whitney McAtee	Parkersburg
	6.  Kylie Miles		Cabell Midland
Watson has the top throw in the field and five throws over 42'.  Budd has a 43' toss
to her credit, but nothing else over 41'.  She does have four throws of at least 40'.
Morris is the only other one to have gone over 40'0, which she's done twice, including
a top throw of 41'8.  Wilfong has four throws better than anyone else's best.  McAtee
has five throws in the 37's.  Miles has the only other throw over 37'0 and the next
best series.

Discus	1.  Abby Watson		Hurricane
	2.  Aislyn Hayman	Point Pleasant
	3.  Megan Wilfong	Buckhannon-Upshur
	4.  Whitney McAtee	Parkersburg
	5.  Ericka Budd		Huntington
	6.  Lillie Jacobs	George Washington
Watson has hit 130' three times with a top throw of 139'0.  Hayman has the next best
series with 5 throws over 124'.  Wilfong has four throws of at least 121'.  McAtee has
the 2nd best throw in the field and is the only one other than Watson to hit 130'.  But
her 2nd best throw is just 120'6.  Budd is the only other thrower to top 120'.  Jacobs
has a 119' throw to her credit.

 
High Point Predictions
1.  Anacia Hines	St. Albans		30
2.  Abby Colbert	Jefferson		26.50
3.  Safiyyah Mitchell	Huntington		24.50
4.  Malika Houston	George Washington	24
5.  Anna Gordon		Hurricane		23.50