Class AA Boys Individual Event Predictions

100 M	1.  Carlos Reed		Bluefield
	2.  D.J. Stewart	Bluefield
	3.  Donovan Spencer	Weir
	4.  Jonathan Rice	Weir
	5.  Kade Sebastian	Wayne
	6.  Dylan Tonkery	Bridgeport
Reed is the only one who has been under 11 seconds.  His top time is over 0.3 seconds
ahead of the field.  He has 4 runs better than anyone else's best.  Stewart is the
defending champion and has the 2nd best time in the field.  Spencer has the second best
series with five runs between 11.28 and 11.31 and was third last year.  Rice has the 
3rd best top time and was 4th last year and has three runs under 11.40.  Sebastian 
matches Spencer's top time and also has three runs under 11.40.  He was 6th last year
and won it two years ago as a freshman.  Tonkery has the next best top time and the
next best series.  Five have been under 11.30.  Only 7 have been under 11.50.
 
200 M	1.  Zack Marcum		Scott
	2.  Steven McGinnis	Roane
	3.  Donovan Spencer	Weir
	4.  Alex Pavalok	Roane
	5.  Micah Swiger	Oak Glen
	6.  Jonathan Rice	Weir
Marcum has the top time and has five runs under 23 seconds.  McGinnis is the only other
one to have been under 23 seconds, and he's done it three times.  Spencer has the next 
best time and had the second best regional run in the field.  Pavalok has the next best
series.  Swiger's top time is better than Pavalok's, and he beat both Pavalok and McGinnis
at the Regional.  Rice is one of just four in the field to have three runs under 23.40.
8 in the field have been under 23.30.  10 have been under 23.50.

400 M	1.  Troy Fisher		Roane
	2.  Zack Marcum		Scott
	3.  Steven McGinnis	Roane
	4.  Corey Carvelli	Robert C. Byrd
	5.  Alex Pavalok	Roane
	6.  Jeffrey Lewis	James Monroe
Fisher is the defending champion and has the top time in the field.  He has been under
50 seconds twice.  Marcum gave Fisher a run last year and will again this year.  Marcum
has also been under 50 seconds, and he had the fastest Regional time.  McGinnis is the
only other one to have been under 51 seconds.  Carvelli is the only other remaining
competitor with multiple runs under 52 seconds, and he has 4 fo them.  Lewis doesn't 
have the next best time or the next best series, but it's there.  He showed it last
year during the regular season.  6 have been under 52 seconds, and 10 have been under 53.

800 M	1.  Troy Fisher		Roane
	2.  Brettley Harris	Webster
	3.  Austen Zorick	Robert C. Byrd
	4.  Jason Weitzel	PikeView
	5.  Steven Shetler	Berkeley Springs
	6.  Matt Strand		Fairmont Senior
Fisher has the top time in the group and is the only one with a pair of runs under 2:00.
His top three times have come in his last 3 meets.  Harris has the only other sub-2:00
run in the field and beat Fisher head-to-head in April.  Zorick is the only other one
in the field to have been under 2:01.  He'll also be the only one of my placers who
doesn't run either the 400 or the 1600 in the morning session.  Weitzel has a pair of
runs under 2:03, while no one else has been there.  Shetler has the only other run 
under 2:04.  Strand has the next best time.  7 have been under 2:05.  9 have been under
2:06.

1600 M	1.  Brettley Harris	Webster
	2.  Jason Weitzel	PikeView
	3.  Steven Shetler	Berkeley Springs
	4.  Austin Hayes	Webster
	5.  Caleb Pell		Roane
	6.  Jimmy Lacaria	Bridgeport
Harris has the top time in the field by nearly 3 seconds and is the only one to have
gone under 4:30.  Weitzel has three runs under 4:35.  Shelter has three runs under 4:40.
Hayes has the 3rd best time in the group but is still coming off a mid-season injury
and getting back to form.  Pell also has three runs under 4:40.  Lacaria has a pair of
runs under 4:40.  8 have been under 4:40.  9 have been under 4:42.

3200 M	1.  Brettley Harris	Webster
	2.  Jason Weitzel	PikeView
	3.  Jimmy Lacaria	Bridgeport
	4.  Steven Shetler	Berkeley Springs
	5.  Mark Ellis		East Fairmont
	6.  Caleb Pell		Roane
Harris has the top time in the field by nearly 5 seconds.  Weitzel's top time is over
10 seconds ahead of anyone else.  Lacaria is the only one in the field that has a pair
of runs under 10:00.  No one else has been under 10:00.  Shetler has a pair of runs
under 10:05.  Ellis has a pair of runs under 10:10 and has the 4th best top time in the
field.  Pell also has a pair of runs under 10:10.  He's only run it 3 times, and each 
has been under 10:12.  11 have been under 10:10, so there could be a lot of shifting
in this one.  7 have been under 10:10 twice.

110 HH	1.  Jayden Allender	Ritchie
	2.  TreShawn McDowell	Liberty Raleigh
	3.  Clayton Satterfield	Ritchie
	4.  Corey Carvelli	Robert C. Byrd
	5.  Deovanta Johnson	Keyser
	6.  Ryan Bates		Roane
Allender has the top time in the field by 0.45 seconds.  He's the only to have been under
15 seconds.  He has three runs better than anyone else's best.  McDowell has the 2nd
best time in the field.  His sereis falls short of that of Satterfield or Carvelli, but
he did finish just 0.10 behind Allender and well ahead of Satterfield last year.  
Satterfield gets the nod over Carvelli by having the better top time and winning the
matchup on 2 of the 3 best times.  Johnson and Bates are the only other ones to have
been under 15.80.  Johnson gets the nod on a better series.  8 have been under 16.00.

300 IH	1.  Jayden Allender	Ritchie
	2.  Zack Marcum		Scott
	3.  Clayton Satterfield	Ritchie
	4.  Ryan Bates		Roane
	5.  Deovanta Johnson	Keyser
	6.  TreShawn McDowell	Liberty Raleigh
Allender has the top time in the field by over a second.  He has three runs under 40
seconds.  Marcum is the only other one to have been under 40 seconds, which he did at
the Gazette Relays.  Satterfield gets the nod over Bates, having beaten him at both the
LKC and Regional meets.  Those two are the only other ones to have been under 41 seconds,
and each has done it twice.  Johnson gets the edge over McDowell based on a better
overall series, though McDowell has the better top tw times.  6 in the field have been
under 42 seconds.  10 have been under 43.
 
4x100 M	1.  Bluefield
	2.  Keyser
	3.  Bridgeport
	4.  Fairmont Senior
	5.  Ritchie
	6.  Oak Glen
Bluefield gets the nod here.  They have the top time in the field and have the top
two 100 meter dash guys on there (in addition to the 7th ranked one who won't be
running the open at the State Meet).  Keyser gets the nod over Bridgeport.  Bridgeport
beat them by 0.01 at the Regional, but Keyser has 3 runs under 45 seconds.  Those are
the only three to have been under 45 seconds.  Fairmont Senior has a pair of runs
better than anyone else's best.  Ritchie and Oak Glen have the only other times under
46 seconds.

4x200 M	1.  Bluefield
	2.  Keyser
	3.  Bridgeport
	4.  Roane
	5.  Fairmont Senior
	6.  Oak Glen
Bluefield has the top time and three runs under 1:34.  Keyser's top time is withing
0.2 seconds of Bluefield.  Bridgeport has a pair of runs under 1;35.  Roane has a 1:34
with their Regional unit.  The could conceivably move Troy Fisher onto this unit and
possibly win the event, but they would have to take him out of the long jump or 4x400 
to do it.  I'm going on the assumption that they won't make that move.  Those four are 
the only ones to have been under 1:35. Oak Glen gets the nod for 6th on the next best 
series.  7 have been under 1:36 and two more under 1:37.

4x400 M	1.  Roane
	2.  East Fairmont
	3.  Ritchie
	4.  Robert C. Byrd
	5.  Bridgeport
	6.  Keyser
If Roane fully loads, they'll be well ahead of the field.  They can add Steven McGinnis
to the lineup to do this.  They could move Troy Fisher off this and into the 4x200 to
improve that unit and still keep this one as the favorite, albeit a much more shaky favorite.
I don't think they'll pull that trigger, but it's out there.  Fully loaded, they'd have a
shot at the State Meet Record.  East Fairmont has the next best time in the field by 5 
seconds.  Ritchie and Robert C. Byrd I think can go a couple seconds faster than they have.  
I'm giving Ritchie the nod as they have a slightly better time and Robert C. Byrd will have 
to run in the first heat.  Robert C. Byrd could add Corey Carvelli to the lineup and contend 
for 2nd, but to do that they'd have to pull him out of one of his individual events in which 
he is expected to score.  I don't think they'll do it.  Bridgeport gets the nod over Keyser 
for 5th in a close one.  

4x800 M	1.  Webster
	2.  Bridgeport
	3.  Oak Glen
	4.  Ritchie
	5.  Keyser
	6.  Berkeley Springs
I think Webster moves Brettley Harris from the 4x400 to the 4x800.  They can run 8:20
or better.  I don't think anyone else can match that.  Bridgeport might be able to get
close.  Oak Glen gets the nod for 3rd.  Ritchie and Keyser will look to try to move in
front of them.  I have all three teams within 2 seconds of each other.  I have Berkeley 
Springs moving Steven Shetler onto the lineup and into placing position.  

Shuttle	1.  Ritchie
	2.  Keyser
	3.  Robert C. Byrd
	4.  Bridgeport
	5.  Poca
	6.  Fairmont Senior
Ritchie and Keyser are very close across the board.  Ritchie has been .01 faster.
Keyser had the faster Regional time.  I gave the nod to Ritchie just based on having
Allender to close the deal.  Those two teams are over 1.5 seeconds ahead of the rest 
of the field.  Robert C. Byrd is the only other team to have gone under 1:02.  Bridgeport 
has run a 1:02.00.  Poca and Fairmont Senior have a pair of runs under 1:03, although 
Fairmont hasn't done it since mid-April.

H Jump	1.  Jayden Allender	Ritchie
	2.  Jacob Nuzum		East Fairmont
	3.  Michael Gaskill	East Fairmont
	4.  Austin McGinnis	Roane
	5.  Shawn Arthur	Poca
	6.  Cody Southerly	Petersburg
Allender is the only one to have cleared 6'4, and he's done it three times.  He only
jumped in four meets this year.  He's also the defending champion.  Nuzum gets the nod
for 2nd because he cleared 6'0 in each of his last two meets.  Gaskill has a pair of
6'0 jumps, one of which came at the Regional.  McGinnis actually has a 6'2 jump and a
pair of 6'0 jumps, but he hasn't cleared 6'0 since April 11th.  Arthur has a pair of
6'0 jumps, but hasn't cleared it since April 21st.  Southerly cleared 6'0 at his Regional
meet, but only cleared 5'10 one other time.  There are 7 in the field that have cleared
6'0 and two others that have cleared 5'10.

P Vault	1.  Austin Garrett	Ritchie
	2.  Bryson Dennison	Braxton
	3.  Caleb Pell		Roane
	4.  Troy Pallay		Bridgeport
	5.  Ethen Whitlock	Keyser
	6.  Dante Speas		Robert C. Byrd
Garrett has the only clearances higher than 14'0.  He's cleared 15'0 once and 14'6
three times.  Dennison hsa a pair of 14'0 vaults.  No one else has been higher than
12'6.  I went with Pell for 3rd for having more 12'0 clearances and for getting 12'0
in each of his last two meets.  Pallay gets the 4th spot on a 12'3 vault and a pair
of 12'0 vaults, but only an 11'6 at his Regional.  Whitlock got 12'6 at his Regional,
but that's been his only clearance over 11'0.  Speas has a pair of 11'6 vaults, one of
which occurred at the Regional.

L Jump	1.  Hayden Webb		Poca
	2.  Corey Carvelli	Robert C. Byrd
	3.  Troy Fisher		Roane
	4.  Michael Gaskill	East Fairmont
	5.  Amonte Turner	Keyser
	6.  Jonathan Rice	Weir
Have I mentioned how much I hate picking this event...Webb hit 21'0 at Laidley Field
at the Gazette Relays, so he gets the nod.  Carvelli's top jumps all come at some of
the jumper havens, except for one, and that one was worth putting him in 2nd.  Fisher
was the runner-up last year, and thas three jumps over 20'0.  Gaskill hit 21'3.25 at 
his Regional, which was at one of the jumper havens, but still very impressive regardless.
Turner won the event last year.  Rice has only jumped in one meet that I saw and went
20'5.75.  I consider him dangerous.  5 in the field have jumped 21'0.  10 have topped
20'0, but only four have done it more than once.

 
Shot	1.  Christian Buckley	Poca
	2.  Chase Dotson	Poca
	3.  Cole Weaver		Keyser
	4.  Jacob Griffith	Bridgeport
	5.  Juwan Jones-Wright	Robert C. Byrd
	6.  Garrett Ickes	Frankfort
Buckley has the top throw in the field by over 10' with a best of 61'11.  He has three
throws over 60'0.  Dotson is over 4' further than anyone else.  He has three throws 
over 50'.  Weaver is the only other one to hit 47'0 and has a pair of 45' throws to
go with it.  Griffith has a 46' throw and a pair of 45' throws.  Jones-Wright has 
three 44' throws.  Ickes one has a 43' throw and a 42' throw, but at least his top
throws have come in his last two meets.

Discus	1.  Christian Buckley	Poca
	2.  Jacob Stump		Liberty Raleigh
	3.  Noah Mills		Oak Glen
	4.  Garrett Ickes	Frankfort
	5.  Chase Dotson	Poca
	6.  Chance Staley	Oak Glen
Buckley has the top throw in the field by a whopping 35'.  His 186'9 toss at the 
Regional Meet was an All-Time best for the State.  He has five throws over 180'0.
Stump is the only other one to hit 150', and he's done it twice and has five throws
of 145'0.  Mills has a pair of 140'0 and five of 137'0.  Ickes has has three throws
over 135'0 and five over 133'0.  Dotson has a 140'0, but only two others over 133'0.
Staley has four throws of 130'0.

High Point Predictions
1.  Jayden Allender	Ritchie			32.50
2.  Brettley Harris	Webster			30.50
3.  Troy Fisher		Roane			28.50
4.  Zack Marcum		Scott			26
5.  Christian Buckley	Poca			20
5.  Jason Weitzel	PikeView		20