Class AA Boys Individual Event Predictions
 
100 M	1.  D.J. Stewart	Bluefield
	2.  Jonathan Rice	Weir
	3.  Kade Sebastian	Wayne
	4.  Blake Ravenscroft	Keyser
	5.  Carlos Reed		Bluefield
	6.  Jeffrey Lewis	James Monroe
I have the top 3 this year the same as the top 3 last year, but in the reverse order.
I figure any of the first five could win this.  Four of the five have run under 11.25,
and the other is the defending champion.  The first five have been under 11.37.  Lewis
has been 11.48.  12 in total have been 11.57 or better.

200 M	1.  Blake Ravenscroft	Keyser
	2.  Zack Marcum		Scott
	3.  Nathan Bernarde	Grafton
	4.  Cole Slates		Weir
	5.  Alex Pavalok	Roane
	6.  Ethan Thompson	Chapmanville
Ravenscroft has 4 runs under 23 seconds.  Only one other person, Marcum, even has one.
Bernarde was 2nd last year and is coming on late in the season.  Slates won the event
last year.  Pavalok has a pair of runs under 23.40.  Thompson has a pair under 23.50.
11 have been 23.60 or better.

400 M	1.  Troy Fisher		Roane
	2.  Zack Marcum		Scott
	3.  Jayden Allender	Ritchie
	4.  Cole Slates		Weir
	5.  Kurt Arthur-Langdon	Wayne
	6.  Ty Seibel		Lincoln
Fisher's top time is nearly a second better than anyone else's best.  He's the only one
in the field to have been under 50 seconds.  Marcum has a slightly better series than
Allender.  Allender has a better top time by 0.02.  Slates was runner-up last year and 
has a pair of fast runs.  Arthur-Langdon has three runs under 52 seconds and a better top
time than Slates by 0.01.  Those five have all been 51.16 or better.  No one else has
been under 52.  Of the remaining field, Seibel has the best time by almost 0.8 seconds.
10 have been under 53.

 
800 M	1.  Troy Fisher		Roane
	2.  Lucas Young		Frankfort
	3.  Abe Merinar		Bridgeport
	4.  Brettley Harris	Webster
	5.  Austin Hayes	Webster
	6.  Jason Weitzel	PikeView
Fisher has the best series with 4 runs of 2:02 or better.  Young has the most runs 
under 2:01.  Merinar has the only sub-2:00 run in the group and could easily win it.
Harris has three runs under 2:03.  Hayes has a 2:03 and three total runs under 2:05.
Weitzel has a pair of 2:04 runs.  7 in the field have been under 2:05.  9 have been 
under 2:06, and 13 have been under 2:07.  Everyone in this front six will have run
either the 1600 or the 400 in the morning session.  Expending too much could open 
the door.

1600 M	1.  Abe Merinar		Bridgeport
	2.  Lucas Young		Frankfort
	3.  Brettley Harris	Webster
	4.  Jason Weitzel	PikeView
	5.  Johnny Hogue	Ritchie
	6.  Matthew Dearth	Bridgeport
Merinar has the top time on the field by 6 seconds with a 4:19.  Young is the only other
one to have been under 4:30, and he's done it twice.  Harris has a pair of runs under
4:35.  Weitzel has a better top time than Harris, and he did it solo at his Regional.
Hogue has a pair of 4:36 runs but has battled late season injury.  Has the next best
series.  Berkeley Springs' Steven Shetler has a better time than Dearth by 0.02 with
both times coming at their Regional.  9 in the field have been under 4:40.

3200 M	1.  Abe Merinar		Bridgeport
	2.  Johnny Hogue	Ritchie
	3.  Brettley Harris	Webster
	4.  Lucas Young		Frankfort
	5.  Matthew Dearth	Bridgeport
	6.  Jason Weitzel	PikeView
Merinar has the top time in the field by 14 seconds with his 9:30.  Hogue is the only
other one to have been under 9:50, but that was in mid-April, and as noted above, he's
been battling injury late in the season.  The next five guys have top times within 5
seconds of each other.  Harris only has the 5th best time in the group, but I think it
may come down to who can close, and I think he can close.  Young has 3 runs under 10:00.
Dearth placed last year and has the next best time.  Weitzel gets the nod over Philip
Barbour's Scott Nesland on the potential close again.  Nelsand has a better top time
and a better series.

110 HH	1.  Nathan Bernarde	Grafton
	2.  Neil Scherich	Fairmont Senior
	3.  Jayden Allender	Ritchie
	4.  TreShawn McDowell	Liberty Raleigh
	5.  Clayton Satterfield	Ritchie
	6.  Tyler Hagewood	Herbert Hoover
Bernarde is the defending champion and has the only sub-15 run in the group and the
best overall series.  Scherich was runner-up last year and easily has the next best top
time and series.  Allender and McDowell have identical top times.  Allender gets the nod
on a better series, but having already run the 400 and the 300's in the morning session
could cost him.  Satterfield has come on late and has the only other sub-16 run in the
group.  Hagewood has a stronger overall series than Satterfield.  9 have been under 16.50.

 
300 IH	1.  Nathan Bernarde	Grafton
	2.  Jayden Allender	Ritchie
	3.  Ryan Bates		Roane
	4.  Clayton Satterfield	Ritchie
	5.  Zack Marcum		Scott
	6.  Christopher Burnham	Oak Glen
Bernarde has the top time and is the defending champion.  Allender has a better series
and the only other run under 40 seconds.  Bates has the only other run under 41 in the
field.  Satterfield has 4 runs under 42 seconds and just beat Bates at the Regional.
Marcum has a top time within 0.09 of Satterfield.  Burnham has the only other run under
42 in the group.  9 have been under 43.  Allender and Marcum will have run the 400
earlier in the morning, which could cost them.

4x100 M	1.  Weir
	2.  Keyser
	3.  Bluefield
	4.  Oak Glen
	5.  Roane
	6.  Poca
Weir has the top time in the group and 3 runs under 44.6 seconds.  Keyser has 4 runs
under 45 seconds and had the top Regional time.  Bluefield has the horses to win this if
they pass it well.  Oak Glen has a pair of runs under 45 seconds and the 3rd best top
time in the field.  Roane has strong potential.  Poca has a better top time than Roane.

4x200 M	1.  Keyser
	2.  Bluefield
	3.  Weir
	4.  Oak Glen
	5.  Roane
	6.  Fairmont Senior
Keyser is the only team with more than one run under 1:33, and they have 3.  Bluefield
has the only run under 1:32 in the field.  Weir has gone under 1:33.  Oak Glen is the
only other team to have been under 1:34.  Roane only has the 7th best time in the field,
but I look at their lineup and have to believe they can go faster.  Fairmont Senior has
the only other run under 1:35 in the field.

4x400 M	1.  Roane
	2.  Oak Glen
	3.  Robert C. Byrd
	4.  East Fairmont
	5.  Bridgeport
	6.  Keyser
Roane is one of just two teams to run under 3:35.  I think they can go 3:31.  Oak Glen is
the other team to have run under 3:35.  Robert C. Byrd has the next best time by 2 seconds.
East Fairmont has the potential to run under 3:36.  Bridgeport can run 3:36.  Keyser will
be running in the first heat.  They've only run 3:42 on the season, but I look at the lineup
and see 3:36-3:37, which will put them battling Berkeley Springs and that heat and James
Monroe.

4x800 M	1.  Bridgeport
	2.  Oak Glen
	3.  Keyser
	4.  Ritchie
	5.  PikeView
	6.  Berkeley Springs
I think Bridgeport is the only team that can go under 8:20.  Oak Glen has the top time in 
the field.  I'm not highly confident that anyone else can go under 8:30.  I have the next
five all between 8:30 and 8:34.  Keyser and Ritchie get the top nods simply because they've
been there.  Ritchie will likely add Johnny Hogue back into the mix.  If either team doesn't 
make that move, they may both fall out of placing.  Webster is the other team that will be
in this mix.  They will likely move Brettley Harris over from the 4x400.

Shuttle	1.  Fairmont Senior
	2.  Keyser
	3.  Petersburg
	4.  Robert C. Byrd
	5.  Ritchie
	6.  Bridgeport
Fairmont Senior has the top time in the field by nearly 3 seconds.  They have a pair of runs
under 60 seconds.  No one else has been under 62.  Keyser has the next best time in the
field and have three runs under 62.50.  Petersburg has a pair of runs under 1:03.  Robert
C. Byrd has three runs under 63.40 and may squeeze in ahead of Petersburg if Petersburg isn't
able to fully load (their top time came with a different lineup).  Ritchie has matched 
Keyser's top time, but that was with Jayden Allender in the lineup.  They could pull him
from the 110HH and fight for 2nd in this event, but I don't think they'll do it.  Bridgeport's
top time is within a tenth of a second of Ritchie best non-Allender time.  Everyone else is
at least 1.2 seconds behind these six.

H Jump	1.  Jayden Allender	Ritchie
	2.  Rasheed Lowe	James Monroe
	3.  Grant Hardman	Roane
	4.  Nathan Bernarde	Grafton
	5.  Duncan McClung	Sissonville
	6.  Ryan Shumate	Independence
Allender has the only 6'4 jumps in the field and he has 4 of them.  Lowe has a pair of 6'2
jumps and three 6'0 jumps.  Hardman matches that resume.  Bernarde has a 6'2 clearance and
three 6'0 jumps.  McClung has a 6'0 jump and his two best jumps have come in his last two 
meets.  Shumate had three 5'10 jumps and placed last year.

P Vault	1.  Bryson Dennison	Braxton
	2.  Austin Garrett	Ritchie
	3.  Caleb Pell		Roane
	4.  Ryan Hickey		Keyser
	5.  Sam Hadjis		Bridgeport
	6.  Zach Hoskinson	Robert C. Byrd
Dennison has a pair of 13'6 vaults and a pair of 13'0 vaults.  The 13'6 vaults have come in
his last two meets.  Garrett has four 13'6 vaults including at his last two meets as well,
but Dennison beat him in both meets.  Pell has the only other 12'0 vaults in the field, and
he has two of them.  Hickey and Hadjis each have a pair of 11'6 vaults.  Hoskinson is the
only other one to clear 11'0.

L Jump	1.  Troy Fisher		Roane
	2.  Bryan Morris	Bluefield
	3.  Micah Swiger	Oak Glen
	4.  Amonte Turner	Keyser
	5.  A.J. Keys		Poca
	6.  Hank Larch		Poca
Fisher has the top jump in the field and is the only one with five 20' jumps.  Morris has
three jumps of at least 20'6.  Swiger won the event last year and has four 20' jumps.  
Turner has the 2nd best top jump in the field and three jumps of 20'.  Keys has three jumps
of 19'11 or better.  Larch has three jumps of 19'8 or better.  9 in the field have hit
20' on the season.

 
Shot	1.  Christian Buckley	Poca
	2.  Chase Dotson	Poca
	3.  Daquan Hilson	Fairmont Senior
	4.  Austin Hill		Nicholas
	5.  Andrew Summers	Fairmont Senior
	6.  Allen Brown		Summers
Buckley's top throw of 57'0 is over 6' further than anyone else's best.  His 5th best
throw is over 4' better than anyone else's best.  Dotson is the only other one to hit
50', and he's done it twice.  Hilson has 4 throws over 46'.  Hill has three throws over
45'.  Summers has been consistent and placed last year.  Brown has a pair of throws over
46', but nothing else over 44'.  10 in the field have thrown 43'11 or better.

Discus	1.  Christian Buckley	Poca
	2.  Marshall Wood	Independence
	3.  Neil Scherich	Fairmont Senior
	4.  Noah Mills		Oak Glen
	5.  Jacob Stump		Liberty Raleigh
	6.  Allen Brown 	Summers
Buckley's top throw is almost 28' further than anyone else's best.  His 5th best throw
is over 24' further than anyone else's best.  Wood has three throws over 135' and five
over 132'.  Scherich has a better top throw at 142' but only a pair of throws over 130'.
Of course, I only saw three meets in which he threw.  Mills and Stump each have three
throws over 130'  Brown has the 4th best top throw at 138'3, but no other throws over
130'.  8 in the field have hit 130'.  10 have hit 129'.

High Point Predictions
1.  Troy Fisher		Roane			32.50
2.  Jayden Allender	Ritchie			30
2.  Nathan Bernarde	Grafton			30
4.  Abe Merinar		Bridgeport		28.50
5.  Christian Buckley	Poca			20
5.  Lucas Young		Frankfort		20