Class A Girls Individual Predictions

Individual Predictions

100 M	1.  Andrea Chidester	Williamstown
	2.  Kelsey Zuspan	Wahama
	3.  Elaysia Hill	Bishop Donahue
	4.  Sydney Rush		Clay-Battelle
	5.  Brooklyn Hammer	Williamstown
	6.  Fanta Kaba		Pendleton
Chidester is coming off a early-season injury but has been coming along nicely.  She and
Zuspan had a nice battle at the Regional meet and I anticipate the same at the State Meet.
Chidester gets the nod in a close one.  Hill, Rush, and Hammer and very similar.  Hill elevated
herself last year at the State Meet, so I'm giving her the spot. 6 have run under 13.20.  No
one else has an FAT run under 13.50.

200 M	1.  Andrea Chidester	Williamstown
	2.  D'Andra Swiger	Doddridge
	3.  Kelsey Zuspan	Wahama
	4.  Lindsay Baker	Wheeling Central
	5.  Elaysia Hill	Bishop Donahue
	6.  Sydney Rush		Clay-Battelle
I know that Swiger beat Chidester at both the LKC Championships and the Regional Meet.  It's
just very difficult for me to pick against the State Meet Record Holder.  She'll have more
recovery time between her events at the State Meet than at those two meets, and I think that
will make the difference.  4 have been under 27 seconds.  7 have been under 27.2 seconds.  
11 have been under 28 seconds.

400 M	1.  Andrea Chidester	Williamstown
	2.  Madelin Gardner	Williamstown
	3.  Mariah Hall		Clay-Battelle
	4.  Fanta Kaba		Pendleton
	5.  Kelsey Kyle		Tucker
	6.  Kathleen Cornell	Williamstown
Chidester is the defending champion and has a time 2 seconds better than anyone else.  She's the
only one to have been under 60 seconds this year.  Hall has a better top time and series than
Gardner, but Gardner is coming on late in the season after an early-season injury.  Kaba is
new to the event and hold has 2 runs under her belt.  While Chloe Conner may only have the
14th best time in the field, I think she bears watching.  Madonna's 4x400 has run under 4:23,
so someone has to be running a pretty good split.  7 have run under 1:04.  9 have run under
1:05.

800 M	1.  Maggie Drazba	St. Marys
	2.  Olivia Miller	Tucker
	3.  Quincy McKown	Charleston Catholic
	4.  Cami Mossor		Williamstown
	5.  Payton Mullens	Charleston Catholic
	6.  Carly Ellison	Williamstown
Drazba has only run the open twice this year, and in neither did she really go after it.  And
she still has the best two times in Class A.  She's an easy favorite.  Miller and McKown have
both run 2:30's, but for each their second best run is no better than 2:34.  Then there are
8 who have top times between 2:33 and 2:37.  Any of them could place.  Only 3 have run under
2:35 more than once.  

1600 M	1.  Maggie Drazba	St. Marys
	2.  Ashley Cassidy	Tucker
	3.  Cami Mossor		Williamstown
	4.  Payton Mullens	Charleston Catholic
	5.  Petyon Keener	Charleston Catholic
	6.  Carley Ellison	Williamstown
Drazba is dominant.  Her 4:54.97 is almost 41 seconds ahead of the field.  Cassidy's strong
3200 time and last year's sub-5:30 lead me to elevate her.  She only has the 8th best time
in the field coming in, but I think there's a lot more there.  5 in the field have been under
5:40 with another just over that mark.  Two others have been under 5:45.  

3200 M	1.  Maggie Drazba	St. Marys
	2.  Ashley Cassidy	Tucker
	3.  Breanna Mazzella	Richwood
	4.  Sara Dalen		Pendleton
	5.  Madison Mullenax	Tucker
	6.  Christa Harshberger	Magnolia
Winners are like the Highlander...there can be only one.  Drazba's All-Time Best mark of
10:19.81 (converted 3000M) is 1:49 ahead of the field.  Or to put it another way, she's the
only one under 10:30...and 11:00...and 11:30...and 12:00.  Cassidy easily has the next best
time and series.  Mazzella is 18 seconds ahead of the rest of the pack.  The rest of the
pack gets interesting.  There next four are 5 within 6 seconds of each other with 2 more
within another 11 seconds.  9 in the field have been under 13:00.

100 HH	1.  Sarah Ferguson	Doddridge
	2.  Hannah Carreon	Clay-Battelle
	3.  Jessica Kerns	Williamstown
	4.  Madelin Gardner	Williamstown
	5.  Haylea Lemasters	Tyler Consolidated
	6.  Bailey Clark	Wheeling Central
Ferguson has the top time and has 5 runs under 15.80.  No one else has more than one.  Carreon
ripped off a 15.52 at the OVAC Championships in a race in which everyone was very, very fast.
Her 2nd best is a 16.18.  Kerns and Garnder a fairly interchangeable. Gardner has the better
top time, but Kerns beat her at both the LKC and Regional, plus Gardner will have already had
to have run both the 400 and 300LH in the morning session, so I gave the spot to Kerns.  6 have
been under 16.50.  8 have been under 17.0

300 LH	1.  D'Andra Swiger	Doddridge
	2.  Sarah Ferguson	Doddridge
	3.  Madelin Gardner	Williamstown
	4.  Olivia Miller	Tucker
	5.  Hannah Carreon	Clay-Battelle
	6.  Haley Hinchman	Richwood
Swiger has the top time in the State this year, regardless of class, with her 44.97.  No one
else has been under 47.  Ferguson's 47.01 is over a second ahead of anyone else.  Those two
are the only ones to have been under 48 seconds.  3 more have been under 49 with 2 more under
50.  In all, 7 have been under 50 seconds and 10 have been under 51 seconds.

4x100 M	1.  Clay-Battelle
	2.  Williamstown
	3.  Wheeling Central
	4.  Charleston Catholic
	5.  Tyler Consolidated
	6.  Madonna
Clay-Battelle has a strong group that should be able to outdistance Williamstown and Wheeling
Central.  They could improve the relay by adding Hannah Carreon and dropping her from one
of her open events.  Those three teams aren't likely to be threatened by the rest of the
field, barring hand-off difficulties.  Clay-Battelle is the only one to have gone under 52 
seconds.  Williamstown and Wheeling Central are in the 52's.  No one else has been under 54.
7 teams in total have been under 55 seconds, and all have been under 56.

4x200 M	1.  Clay-Battelle
	2.  Williamstown
	3.  Wheeling Central
	4.  Tyler Consolidated
	5.  Charleston Catholic
	6.  Madonna
Clay-Battelle again looks to be the favorite.  Their top time is 2.7 seconds ahead of anyone
else.  They could even improve this relay by adding Hannah Carreon to it and dropping her from
one of her open events.  They are the only team to be under 1:52, and they've hit a 1:49.  Only five teams have gone under 1:55.  Only 6 have been under 1:56, and only 7 have been under 1:58.

4x400 M	1.  Clay-Battelle
	2.  Williamstown
	3.  Madonna
	4.  Tucker
	5.  Charleston Catholic
	6.  Magnolia
Clay-Battelle may be able to win this without any moves.  Moving Hannah Carreon onto it
might assure it, but there's also the possibility that Williamstown adds Madelin Gardner to
their unit, which could move them into that territory.  I'm movign them to 2nd in case they
do make that move.  If they don't, then I have the next 4 teams pretty much identical, but 
Madonna and Tucker won't have members who are coming off a tough 800 race.  There's also the 
question of personnel movement.  I think Tucker and Charleston Catholic can only run those 
times with some shifts.  Tucker would have to add Kelsey Kyle (who does have a couple open 
events, so that's very likely).  There's also a chance Tucker could add Olivia Miller, replacing
her in the Shuttles, and that might put them in contention to win.  They'd have to be pretty
comfortable with their shuttle replacement, though.  Charleston Catholic might have to maneuver
people off the 4x100 or 4x200.  Tucker will have to do their work from the first heat, and they
likely won't have much help...unless Richwood makes a move of their own and takes Haley Hinchman 
off the 4x200 to put her on this.  I think they have a group that could conceivably run as 
low as 4:23.  I'd like to see them do it, but I don't know if they will.  I think if Tyler 
Consolidated were to add Haylea Lemasters to their group (dropping either the 300LH or the 
Long Jump), they could contend for a place as well.

4x800 M	1.  Charleston Catholic
	2.  Williamstown
	3.  St. Marys
	4.  Tyler Consolidated
	5.  Tucker
	6.  Magnolia
I think this will be a battle between Charleston Catholic and Williamstown.  Their top times
are just 0.21 apart and both can load up to get down in the 10:10 range.  The question is 
whether or not they will.  I'm not sure.  Both would likely have to pull from another relay
to make the move here.  If one does, and the other doesn't, that probably seals it.  I gave
St. Marys the edge over Tyler Consolidated on the Drazba factor. I don't know how hard she 
ran at the Regional.  I'm guessing she didn't kill it.  I could be wrong.  Tucker has only
run 10:55, but I think they can run under 10:40 if not down in the low 10:30's.  Magnolia
gets the edge over Trinity for the final spot simply because they got them at the Regional.

Shuttle	1.  Williamstown
	2.  Wheeling Central
	3.  Tucker
	4.  Tyler Consolidated
	5.  Richwood
	6.  Madonna
This one should be very close.  Wheeling Central actually has the top time in the group, but
Williamstown has been more consistent.  They both have gone under 1:08.  Tucker is the only
other one that has gone under 1:09.  No one else has run under 1:11 in the group.  Well,
Doddridge has, but that was with D'Andra Swiger on it.  Tyler Consolidated and Richwood
have been in the 1:11's.

H Jump	1.  D'Andra Swiger	Doddridge
	2.  Megan Steele	Williamstown
	3.  Olivia Miller	Tucker
	4.  James Bailey	Richwood
	5.  Ciara Flowers	Williamstown
	6.  Haley Stephenson	Doddridge
Swiger and Steele have battled all season long.  Early it was Swiger.  Then it was Steele. At
the Regional it was Swiger.  They both have a 5'6 jump to their credit.  They both have several
5'4 jumps.  I gave the pick to Swiger since she won the Regional battle and won it at the State
Meet last year.  Miller and Bailey both have 5'2 clearances, with Miller accomplishing it 
twice.  Flowers and Stephenson are the only other ones to have cleared 6'0.

P Vault	1.  Lincoln Postlewaite	Williamstown
	2.  Halyea Lemasters	Tyler Consolidated
	3.  Chelsey Randolph	Doddridge
	4.  Catherine Casingal	Charleston Catholic
	5.  Erica Amos		Williamstown
	6.  Caroline Bantug	Tyler Consolidated
Postlewaite is the class of the field with a top vault nearly 2' better than anyone else.  Her
5th best vault is a foot better than anyone else's best.  LeMasters has the only other 9'0
clearance in the group, and she's done it twice.  The next 3 have all cleared 8'6, but each 
has done it only once.  Randolph has the most 8'0 clearances of the 3, so she gets the spot.
There are only 8 competitors in the event.

L Jump	1.  D'Andra Swiger	Doddridge
	2.  Sarah Ferguson	Doddridge
	3.  Andrea Chidester	Williamstown
	4.  Kelsey Zuspan	Wahama
	5.  Haylea Lemasters	Tyler Consolidated
	6.  Hannah Carreon	Clay-Battelle
Swiger's top jump of 17'10 1/4 is the top mark in the State this year, regardless of class.
Ferguson is a consistently strong performer with a trio of 16' jumps.  Chidester just beat
Ferguson at the Regional Meet.  Zuspan has three jumps over 16' as well.  LeMasters has a
pair of them, and Carreon has gone that far once.  Those six have all jumped 16'0.  No one
else has hit 15'6.  There are four others, though, that have hit 15'0.

Shot	1.  Tiffany Jones	Union
	2.  Laura Taylor	St. Marys
	3.  Aiyana Kachmarek	Tucker
	4.  Lauren Amos		Williamstown
	5.  Taylor Pavan	Madonna
	6.  Becky Beiter	Bishop Donahue
Jones is the clear favorite with a top throw nearly 3' better than anyone else and a 5th best
throw almost 2' better than anyone else's best.  Taylor is the only other one in the group
with more than one throw over 33'.  However, those came in March and early April.  She's also
the only one with more than 3 throws over 32', so I'm still giving her the spot.  5 in the field
have surpassed 33'.  7 have surpassed 31'.  One to watch is Paige Phillips. She has the 2nd
best top throw in the field and got it at her Regional Meet.  However, her 2nd best throw is
just 30'2.

Discus	1.  Aiyana Kachmarek	Tucker
	2.  Taylor Pavan	Madonna
	3.  Paige Phillips	Doddridge
	4.  Melissa Cieslewski	Williamstown
	5.  Rylee Cunningham	Williamstown
	6.  Lisa Spencer	Williamstown
Kachmarek has the only 110' throws in the group, and she has 2 of them.  Pavan has three throws
over 100' and is the defending champion.  Phillips has the 2nd best top throw in the field and
four throws over 100'.  No one else has topped 100'.  There are 4 more that have hit 95' and 4
others that have hit 100'.

High Point Predictions
1.  D'Andra Swiger	Doddridge		38
2.  Andrea Chidester	Williamstown		36
3.  Maggie Drazba	St. Marys		31.50
4.  Sarah Ferguson	Doddridge		26
5.  Madelin Gardner	Williamstown		20