2012 State Meet Predictions

RunWV Predictions
Class AAA Girls

Class AAA Girls Individual Event Predictions

Individual Predictions

100 M 1. Jasmyn Hosby Martinsburg
2. Mykera Days Martinsburg
3. Natasha Trott Morgantown
4. Anacia Hines St. Albans
5. Alexandria Allen Capital
6. Knisha Baldwin Morgantown
Hosby and Days have spet most the season under hand-times. Some have been very, very fast. The
problem with hand-times is that you have no idea if they're even remotely valid if you aren't there
and running a good watch yourself. Regardless, they are very, very fast. Days edged Hosby for the
title last year. Trott actually has the best top time and the best series in the field. Four in
the field have gone under 12.50 FAT. Eight have been under 13.00 FAT.

200 M 1. Jasmyn Hosby Martinsburg
2. Mykera Days Martinsburg
3. Natasha Trott Morgantown
4. Anacia Hines St. Albans
5. Devyn Hosby Washington
6. Rhonda Rogombe Washington
Hosby only has the 10th best time in the field. She had to receive one of the At-Large spots to get
here. However, she is the defending champion, and you get a lot more rest between events at the State
Meet than you do any other meet during the season. She won it last year under similar conditions.
Days was edged by Hosby last year. I see a repeat performance. Trott has the 2nd best top time and
again has the best overall series (again with the caveat that Martinsburg ran just a few FAT meets, and
their hand-times aren't noted in my database). Hines has been under 26.40 in each of her last two
meets. Six in the field have been under 26.50. 9 have been under 26.60.

400 M 1. Jasmyn Hosby Martinsburg
2. Alyssa Scherich Fairmont Senior
3. Rhonda Rogombe Washington
4. Ashley Grove Wheeling Park
5. Ashley Haught John Marshall
6. Shaye Gadomski Greenbrier East
Like last year, I just think Hosby has too much speed. Scherich ran her close last year, though, and
will do so again. Scherich has run the 800 more frequently this year, and that could give her just
enough strength to pull this out. Those two have been under 59 more than once (Hosby 2, Scherich 3).
Rogombe is the only other one to have been under 59. 6 in the field have been under 60. No one else
have been under 61. In fact, the front six all have five runs better than anyone else's best. That
being said, don't be surprised if someone breaks through. One of those that haven't been under 61
placed last year in the mid-59's.

800 M 1. Alyssa Scherich Fairmont Senior
2. Tori Dent Hurricane
3. Amelia Paladino University
4. Kelly Humprheys North Marion
5. Anna Lizon Hedgesville
6. Kassidy Lemons Spring Valley
This one should be fun. The top 3 have been under 2:19. Scherich only has the third best time of the
three, but she won't have run the 1600, and she has superior speed. Dent has the most runs under 2:20
with three and has a little bette speed than Paladino. Paladino, however, did beat Dent soundly at
the Gazette Relays. Humphreys has three runs under 2:25. Lemons has the 4th best time in the field
with her 2:21 Regional run.

1600 M 1. Amelia Paladino University
2. Brynn Harshbarger Morgantown
3. Victoria Cooke Morgantown
4. Tori Dent Hurricane
5. Peyton Panger Capital
6. Lauren Tarovisky Wheeling Park
This should be Paladino's race. Her top time is nearly 10 seconds better than anyone else's best. The
next three have been under 5:20 with Harshbarger doing it twice. The next four have been under 5:26,
so things could get pretty interesting.

3200 M 1. Brynn Harshbarger Morgantown
2. Kaitlyn Workman Preston
3. Rachel Lipps Hampshire
4. Emily Lynch University
5. Rachel Hulett Preston
6. Petyon Panger Capital
With Paladino and her 10:47 electing not to run, this should be Harshbarger's race. She turned an 11:01
in March. Workman is the only other competitor to have gone under 11:30. The next 4 are separated by
just 4 seconds. I just slotted them in the order they finished at the Gazette Relays. 12 in the field
have been under 12:00.

100 HH 1. Emily Godwin Buckhannon-Upshur
2. Ali Crawford Brooke
3. Anacia Hines St. Albans
4. Alyssa Scherich Fairmont Senior
5. Lauren Cvechko Buckhannon-Upshur
6. Tanija Spencer Capital
Godwin has the only sub-15 runs in the field, and she has a pair of them. She has five runs better than
anyone else's best. Crawford has come on late to look very good. Hines gets the nod over Scherich on
a better series and on not having to have run the 400 earlier. 7 have been under 16 seconds. 6 have
done it at least three times.

300 LH 1. Emily Godwin Buckhannon-Upshur
2. Adrian Cunningham George Washington
3. Nicole Fluharty Parkersburg South
4. Ali Crawford Brooke
5. Lindsey Williams Lewis
6. Shaye Gadomski Greenbrier East
Godwin has been under 46 seconds four times. No one else has been there. Even given all that, this
isn't a given. Cunningham has historically run very well at the State Meet and has a trio of runs under
47 seconds. No one else has been under 47. There have been 9 total that have run under 48.

4x100 M 1. Morgantown
2. Martinsburg
3. Winfield
4. Brooke
5. University
6. Jefferson
Morgantown and Brooke have been under 50 seconds. Morgantown has done it twice. The front four have
been under 51 seconds. 8 have been under 52.

4x200 M 1. Wheeling Park
2. Morgantown
3. University
4. Winfield
5. Martinsburg
6. Jefferson
Wheeling Park looks pretty solid. Their top time is 1.4 seconds ahead of 2nd place. The battle for
the next spot should be tight. Morgantown and University have been under 1:47. Winfield and
Martinsburg have been under 1:48 and both ran faster than Morgantown or University in the Regional
Meets. 8 have been under 1:50.

4x400 M 1. Washington
2. Wheeling Park
3. John Marshall
4. Winfield
5. Greenbrier East
6. Hurricane
I think Washington has the best potential in the field. I have them in the 4:04 range. Wheeling Park
has the best time of the group, but their Regional run leaves them trying to do their damage from the
first heat. It's possible that they'll win it from there. I have the next six teams within 3 seconds
of each other.

4x800 M 1. University
2. Morgantown
3. Hurricane
4. Preston
5. Washington
6. Hampshire
This could get very interesting. I have University and Morgantown just two seconds apart. I feel like
Hurricane is a fairly solid third. The front six have all already gone under 10:00. I'm not convinced
anyone else can crack that barrier. I have Wheeling Park as a dark horse. They only ran 10:33 in
their Regional Meet, but I look at the lineup and feel like they can hit 10:01.

Shuttle 1. Buckhannon-Upshur
2. Hampshire
3. Parkersburg South
4. Greenbrier East
5. Wheeling Park
6. Fairmont Senior
Buckhannon-Upshur is the team to beat. Their Regional run of 1:05.79 is over a second faster than
anyone else. Hampshire has a pair of runs under 1:08. Parkersburg South is the only other team to
have gone under 1:08. Greenbrier East is one of just three teams to have gone under 1:10 more than
once.

H Jump 1. Emily Godwin Buckhannon-Upshur
2. Rhonda Rogombe Washington
3. Lauren Cvechko Buckhannon-Upshur
4. Haley Holloway Morgantown
5. Ashleigh Taylor Nicholas
6. Sarah Bever Parkersburg
Godwin has three jumps higher than anyone else's best, and her 5'10 leap stands as an All-Time State
Best. Rogombe has a pair of 5'6 jumps. Cvechko has a 5'5 and a full series of 5'4 jumps. Holloway
and Taylor have identical series. Holloway gets the nod because she cleared 5'2 at the Regional and
Taylor didn't. Bever has a full 5'2 series.

P Vault 1. Kaitlyn Clark Jefferson
2. Rachel Hewitt Morgantown
3. Emma Dolan Wheeling Park
4. Jessica Hamrick Parkersburg South
5. Caysie Irving Washington
6. Allie Perry Winfield
Clark has three vaults of 11'0. Hewitt has only cleared the mark twice, but one was an 11'2 vault.
Dolan is the only other one to have cleared 11'0. Hamrick is the only outher 10'6 vaulter. Three
others have cleared 10'0.

L Jump 1. Emily Godwin Buckhannon-Upshur
2. Alexandria Allen Capital
3. Breayun Days Martinsburg
4. Lauren London Hurricane
5. Kayla Haywood Bridgeport
6. Rachel Richard Brooke
Godwin has 5 jumps of at least 17'10, including three over 18'0. 17'0 is the best anyone else has
managed. Allen has four jumps over 16' including 3 of at least 16'8 and won the title over Godwin
last year. Days was 2nd last year and has a 16' jump to her credit. London has the next best
series. Haywood actually has the 17'0 jump, which ranks 2nd, but her 2nd best jump is just 15'5.
Richard has a pair of 16'0 jumps. 9 have gone past 16'0. Five have done it more than once.

Shot 1. Bethany Drury St. Albans
2. Mackenzie Leigh Buckhannon-Upshur
3. Alex Montes John Marshall
4. Mercedes Dowell Buckhannon-Upshur
5. Jaida Walker Martinsburg
6. Raina Young Bridgeport
Drury may not be completely healthy, and that could cost her the title. She has the top throw in the
field by 4 1/2 feet, and her # 5 throw is almost 3' better than anyone else's best. Leigh has the
next best top throw and series, and her best two throws have come in the last two meets. Montes is
one of just three with more than one 37' throw. Dowell beat Walker soundly at the Regional, but
Walker is one of just three with five 35' throws. Six in the field have thrown 37'. Only two more
have hit 36'.

Discus 1. Alex Montes John Marshall
2. Bethany Drury St. Albans
3. Mackenzie Leigh Buckhannon-Upshur
4. Mercedes Dowell Buckhannon-Upshur
5. Abby Watson Hurricane
6. Whitney McAtee Parkersburg
Montes gets the nod here because of the questionable injury status of Drury. Montes has a better top
throw than Drury, but Drury has the best series of the field and is the only one with five 120' throws.
Leigh actually has the best top throw with a 133'7 1/2 throw. However, her top 5 throws all occurred
by Mid-April, and she hasn't hit 120' since April 5th.

High Point Predictions
1. Emily Godwin Buckhannon-Upshur 40
2. Jasmyn Hosby Martinsburg 32
3. Alyssa Scherich Fairmont Senior 22.25
4. Brynn Harshbarger Morgantown 20
5. Amelia Paladino University 18.50
5. Mykera Days Martinsburg 18.50