Class AAA Girls Individual Event Predictions
 
Individual Predictions

100 M	1.  Jasmyn Hosby	Washington
	2.  Moriah Njoku	Woodrow Wilson
	3.  Natasha Trott	Morgantown
	4.  Janey Hall		Parkersburg
	5.  Tara Sharpe		Musselman
	6.  Shalynn Dickens	Martinsburg
As usual, this is a mess.  Hosby was 2nd last year and had the best Regional run.  She
has three runs better than anyone else's best, but two of them are hand times, which are
always at least somewhat questionable.  Njoku only has the 6th best time, but her entire
series of top times (all under 13) are FAT.  Trott popped a 12.64 FAT at the Gazette Relays.
In all, 10 girls have gone under 13 seconds.  8 of them have done it more than once.  6
have done it 4 times, and that's who I have placing.

200 M	1.  Jasmyn Hosby	Washington
	2.  Janey Hall		Parkersburg
	3.  Moriah Njoku	Woodrow Wilson
	4.  Alyssa Scherich	Fairmont Senior
	5.  Ali Crawford	Brooke
	6.  Tara Sharpe		Musselman
Hosby and Hall are the only ones to have gone under 26 seconds.  Hosby is also the defending
champion.  The front six all have 5 clockings under 27 seconds (though some are hand times).
Three others have multiple runs under 27 seconds (Alexandria Allen, Jenai Stubbs, and Shalyn
Dickens) and could be factors.

400 M	1.  Josie Crouch	Hurricane
	2.  Savannah Rutherford	Spring Valley
	3.  Alyssa Scherich	Fairmont Senior
	4.  Jenai Stubbs	Fairmont Senior
	5.  Whitney Lewis	Musselman
	6.  LaShonda McDowell	Woodrow Wilson
Crouch is the clear favorite with four runs better than anyone else's best.  Rutherford was
runner-up last year and seems to be finally coming into form this year.  She only has the
6th best time, though, and may not come through.  Scherich is the only runner in the field
aside from Crouch with more than one sub-60.  In making these picks, I made an assumption
that Buckhannon-Upshur would pull Emily Godwin from this event to put her in the 4x400 and
that Parkersburg would pull Janey Hall from this event and put her in the 4x200.

800 M	1.  Josie Crouch	Hurricane
	2.  Letitia Propst	Elkins
	3.  Whitney Lewis	Musselman
	4.  Alex Dent		Hurricane
	5.  Andrea Nickerson	Jefferson
	6.  Chelsea Clark	Fairmont Senior
Crouch is the clear favorite again.  Her best time this season would be just off the State
Meet Record.  I'm sure she'll be going for it.  She also has five runs that are three seconds
better than anyone else's best.  Propst and Dent have three runs under 2:24 while no one else
has more than one.  Lewis gets the nod over Dent because she has a better top time and won't
have run the 1600 earlier.  Nickerson and Clark have the next best series of runs.  Nikki
Ashbaugh and Karena Moran have been faster than Clark, though.

1600 M	1.  Alex Dent		Hurricane
	2.  Letitia Propst	Elkins
	3.  Andrea Nickerson	Jefferson
	4.  Chelsea Clark	Fairmont Senior
	5.  Alyssa Boucher	Jefferson
	6.  Alison Kimble	Hurricane
Dent comes in as the favorite with a top time that is over 6 seconds ahead of the field, but
Propst is very dangerous.  Nickerson gets the nod over Clark mostly because of her outstanding
run from last year.  Clark has a slightly better top time and a slightly better series.  
Boucher and Kimble are two of three remaining runners with a pair of runs under 5:30.  Boucher
has only run it twice, but both were 5:25's.  The third with a pair of runs under 5:30 is 
Madison Hill.  Jorden Thornton and Brandi Gandee could be factors as well.

3200 M	1.  Alex Dent		Hurricane
	2.  Letitia Propst	Elkins
	3.  Alyssa Boucher	Jefferson
	4.  Chelsea Clark	Fairmont Senior
	5.  Jorden Thornten	Cabell Midland
	6.  Alison Kimble	University
Dent is again a pretty heavy favorite with a top time that is nearly 17 seconds ahead of 
anyone else.  However, as in the 1600, it's hard to rule out Propst.  Boucher looks to have
a fairly solid grip on 3rd.  Clark is a fairly solid 4th.  Kimble had the outstanding 11:43
at her conference meet, but it's her only run under 12:00.  Thornton, Madison Hill, and Morgan
Phillips all have multiple runs under 12:00.  Lydia Martinelli has also run under 12:00.

100 HH	1.  Taylor Brown	Jefferson
	2.  Alyssa Scherich	Fairmont Senior
	3.  Emily Godwin	Buckhannon-Upshur
	4.  Ali Crawford	Brooke
	5.  Austyn Creighton	Wheeling Park
	6.  Olivia Moore	Woodrow Wilson
This could be very, very tight.  Looking solely at top times, less than 0.9 seconds separates
1st from 12th.  0.21 separates 1st from 6th.  Despite all the hot top end times, only three
in the field have 5 runs under 16 seconds, and I've placed them at the top.  Crawford and
Moore have 4 under 16 seconds, as does Julie Young.  Creighton only has three but seems to
still be gaining speed in this event late in the season with her four best runs coming in 
her last two meets.

300 LH	1.  Taylor Brown	Jefferson
	2.  Emily Godwin	Buckhannon-Upshur
	3.  Alyssa Scherich	Fairmont Senior
	4.  Julie Young		John Marshall
	5.  Nicole Fluharty	Parkersburg South
	6.  Kristen McWhorter	Lewis
Godwin beat Brown at the Regional.  Brown has a slightly better series.  Brown is also the
defending champion and State Record holder.  I had to give her the spot.  Scherich is the only
other one in the field with a pair of runs under 47 seconds.  Young and Fluharty are the only
other runners in the field to have gone under 48 seconds, and each has done it more than once.
McWorter lands at the top of a cluster of 8 runners that have been between 48 and 49.  She
placed in the event last year, has the top remaining time, and is one of three of those eight
that have 3 runs under 49.

4x100 M	1.  Morgantown
	2.  Woodrow Wilson
	3.  Martinsburg
	4.  Brooke
	5.  Washington
	6.  Wheeling Park
This should be an excellent battle between Morgantown and Woodrow Wilson.  Washington, like
Huntington in the Boys events, will have to do their damage from the first heat.

4x200 M	1.  Morgantown
	2.  Woodrow Wilson
	3.  Parkersburg
	4.  Martinsburg
	5.  Washington
	6.  John Marshall
As in the 4x100, we should have a battle between Morgantown and Woodrow Wilson.  I think
Parkersburg adds Janey Hall to the mix and moves up to 3rd.  

4x400 M	1.  Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Hurricane
	3.  Parkersburg
	4.  Jefferson
	5.  Washington
	6.  John Marshall
I have Buckhannon-Upshur adding Emily Godwin to the mix, and I think that can put them in
the 4:04 range.  I think Hurricane can still challenge them, but I think B-U will come out
ahead.  Parkersburg and Jefferson can both run in the 4:07 range.  I have Washington and 
John Marshall being able to hit 4:12.  I don't have anyone else being able to go under 4:14.

4x800 M	1.  Hurricane
	2.  Jefferson
	3.  Buckhannon-Upshur
	4.  University
	5.  Ripley
	6.  John Marshall
Hurricane should be able to win this without having to move Alex Dent onto the unit, so I've
left her in the 4x400.  I have them going under 9:40 without her.  Jeffeson and Buckhannon-
Upshur are the only other units that I'm completely confident can go under 10:00, and I think
they can both hit under 9:50.  I think University has more upside than Ripley or John Marshall.
I have the front five all showing an ability to hit 10:00.  I have six more that I think can
go 10:10 or better, so we could have some really good racing for the final spots.

Shuttle	1.  Jefferson
	2.  Wheeling Park
	3.  Buckhannon-Upshur
	4.  John Marshall
	5.  Cabell Midland
	6.  Winfield
Jefferson and Wheeling Park have been under 1:06.  Buckhannon-Upshur and John Marshall have
been under 1:07 twice.  Cabell Midland and Winfield are the only other ones to have gone under
1:07.

H Jump	1.  Emily Godwin	Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Leah Warner		Elkins
	3.  Paula Renteria	Preston
	4.  Lauren Cvechko	Buckhannon-Upshur
	5.  Kristiana Hunt	Parkersburg South
	6.  Ashley Hall		Buckhannon-Upshur
This is an important event for Buckhannon-Upshur's team title hopes.  Godwin is the only one
in the field with multiple jumps of 5'4.  She has three of them.  There are four others who
have at least 5 jumps of 5'2.  Warner has a 5'4 jump and won the event last year with a 5'6
jump, plus her 5'4 jump was at the regional meet.  Renteria went 5'3 at the Regional.
Cvechko has a 5'4 jump to her credit, but it didn't happen at the Regional, and she isn't one
of the jumpers with a full series of 5'2 jumps.  Hunt has a 5'3 and does have the full series
of 5'2 jumps.  No one else has been higher than 5'2.  Of those remaining, Hall has a full
series of 5'2 jumps.  No one else has more than 3.

P Vault	1.  Kiley Defibaugh	John Marshall
	2.  Kaitlyn Clark	Jefferson
	3.  Emma Dolan		Wheeling Park
	4.  Rachel Hewitt	Morgantown
	5.  Katherine Heubisch	Washington
	6.  Savana Whiting	Ripley
Defibaugh is the only one to clear 10'6 twice.  She also has a 10'4 vault.  Clark has a 10'6
and a 10'1.  Both have at least 5 vaults of 10'.  Dolan and Hewitt are the only others to
have cleared 10'.  Heubisch has cleared 9'6 twice with both coming in the last two meets.
Whiting has just one 9'6 vault, but it happened at the Regional.  Jackie Criss has a 9'8
vault, but it was way back on 4/3, and she hasn't topped 9'0 since 4/14.

L Jump	1.  Alexandria Allen	Morgantown
	2.  Shardinae Adams	Lewis
	3.  Meghan Ruddlesden	Parkersburg
	4.  Michelle Oye	Woodrow Wilson
	5.  Julie Young		John Marshall
	6.  Alicia Bonar	Wheeling Park
What a complete and utter mess.  I have placed and re-placed this event five or six times.
Allen is the defending champion and the only one in the field with an 18' jump and the only
one in the field with five jumps of 17'.  Adams is the only other one to have surpassed 17'
more than once.  Ruddlesden is the only other jumper to have jumped 17' and joins Allen
and Adams as the only jumpers with five jumps of 16'.  No one else has more than two.  Oye
has placed in this event the last two years and went over 16' at the State Meet venue at
her Regional Meet.  Young placed 3rd last year, and her two best jumps have come in the last
two meets.  Bonar also placed last year and has a pair of jumps over 16'.  In all, 14 jumpers
have topped 16', and that doesn't include Kristen McWorter, who placed 4th last year and
is one of 7 jumpers to have five jumps of 15'6 or better.

Shot	1.  Karissa Knabenshue	Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Sarah Fisher	Wheeling Park
	3.  Sammie Hicks	Parkersburg South
	4.  Kiana Weller	Jefferson
	5.  Leigh Poindexter	George Washington
	6.  Megan Turley	Hurricane
Knabenshue has three throws over 40'.  Fisher has 4 throws over 39'.  No one else has hit
39'.  Hicks has a pair of 38' throws.  Wells has a 38' throw and two 36' throws.  Poindexter
is the only other thrower with five 33' throws.  Turly has more 34' throws than Poindexter
but threw poorly at her Regional Meet.  The front 6 have all hit 35'.  No one else has.

Discus	1.  Karissa Knabenshue	Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Alexis Montes	John Marshall
	3.  Susie Godwin	Buckhannon-Upshur
	4.  Sarah Fisher	Wheeling Park
	5.  Jennifer Ullman	Preston
	6.  Bethany Drury	St. Albans 
Knabenshue has five throws over 121'.  Montes is the only other thrower to have hit that mark
even once.  Godwin's best throws aren't quite as good as Montes, but she does has been past
114' more consistently.  Montes did beat both Godwin and Knabenshue last year.  Fisher has
three throws over 110'.  Ullman has a slightly better series than Drury, but Drury was have
a pair over 110'.  The front six have all throw at least 112'.  No one else has hit 106'.
Only 8 in the field have multiple throws over 100'.
 
High Point Predictions
1.  Emily Godwin	Buckhannon-Upshur	26.50
2.  Alex Dent		Hurricane		26
3.  Josie Crouch	Hurricane		24.50
4.  Letitia Propst	Elkins			24
4.  Alyssa Scherich	Fairmont Senior		24