Class AA Girls Individual Event Predictions

Individual Predictions

100 M	1.  Bria Welker		Frankfort
	2.  Candace Brown	Summers
	3.  Mercedes Lawson	Oak Hill
	4.  Demi Kirk		Sherman
	5.  Cheri Bunner	Ritchie
	6.  Donnie Kirk		Sherman
Welker was far and away the fastest Regional runner.  It was good to see an FAT time on her
because all her top times prior to that were hand times.  Brown had the 2nd fastest Regional
run and has the 2nd best top time.  Lawson joins Welker as the only two with five runs under
13 seconds.  Demi Kirk has the next best series.  Bunner and Donnie Kirk have very similar
series.  Bunner has a slightly better top time, so she gets the nod.  11 girls have been
under 13.20 and should be considered threats to place.

200 M	1.  Bria Welker		Frankfort
	2.  Mercedes Lawson	Oak Hill
	3.  Candace Brown	Summers
	4.  Shakilya Cosby	Oak Hill
	5.  Demi Kirk		Sherman
	6.  Donnie Kirk		Sherman
Welker still doesn't have an FAT time that beats Lawson, Brown, or Cosby.  She does have a
very strong series of hand times, and her FAT 100 time legitimizes these hand times enough
for me to give her the top spot.  Lawson has five FAT runs under 26.50.  Brown has three
FAT runs under 26.70.  Cosby has five runs under 27.  Demi Kirk and Donnie Kirk are fairly
interchangeable in this event.  Cheri bunner and Haven Harman have also been under 27 seconds.

400 M	1.  Shakilya Cosby	Oak Hill
	2.  Bria Welker		Frankfort
	3.  Madison Cunningham	Lincoln
	4.  Shannon Rutherford	Wayne
	5.  Alexis Burch	Oak Glen
	6.  Megan Gains		Liberty Harrison
Cosby is a substantial favorite iwth five runs under 60 seconds, including a pair of runs
under 58 seconds.  Welker is the only other one to have gone under 60 seconds, and she's 
done it three times.  She appears to have the outright speed to challenge Cosby, but Cosby
just seems to be able to power away from the field down the stretch.  Cunningham has gone
under 60.5 twice.  Rutehrford has the only other run under 61 seconds.  Burch is the only
other runner with a pair of runder under 62.  Gains have five runs under 1:03, one of only
four the field that can make that claim.  Demi Kirk, Rheann Foley, and Katie Jan could also
be factors.

800 M	1.  Neaire Miller	Oak Hill
	2.  Sarah McCauley	Philip Barbour
	3.  Shannon Rutherford	Wayne
	4.  Katie Jan		Frankfort
	5.  Erica Hayes		Herbert Hoover
	6.  Joi Fruit		Oak Hill
Miller and McCauley are the only two in the field with five runs under 2:30.  Miller has the
best top time by over 3 seconds and has two runs better than McCauley's best.  Rutherford
has four runs under 2:30.  Jan has a top time over three seconds ahead of the rest of the
field.  She has two runs under 2:27, so moving up is certainly a possibility.  Hayes is the
only other runner to have gone under 2:30.  Fruit has a pair of runs better than anyone
else's best.

1600 M	1.  Sarah McCauley	Philip Barbour
	2.  Neaire Miller	Oak Hill
	3.  Erica Hayes		Herbert Hoover
	4.  Katie Jan		Frankfort
	5.  Tricia Marker	Weir
	6.  Brianna Waybright	Philip Barbour
Mccauley has the best time in the field by over 14 seconds.  She has five runs better than
anyone else's best.  Miller is the only other runner in the field with a pair of runs under
5:30.  Hayes has a better top time than Miller.  Jane has a pair of runs under 5:35.  Marker
and Waybright have a pair of runs under 5:40.

3200 M	1.  Sarah McCauley	Philip Barbour
	2.  Erica Hayes		Herbert Hoover
	3.  Tricia Marker	Weir
	4.  Aly Carpenter	Ritchie
	5.  Brianna Waybright	Philip Barbour
	6.  Ardath Osborne	Berkeley Springs
McCauley has the top time in the field by nearly 9 seconds.  She has five runs better than
anyone else's best.  Hayes and Marker are the only othe runners in the field to have been
under 12:00.  Carpenter has run 12:00.  Waybright has a slightly better series than Carpenter.
Osborne is the only other runner to have been under 12:20.

100 HH	1.  Mireya Cangemi	Liberty Raleigh
	2.  Nicole Holland	Weir
	3.  Mariah Farley	PikeView
	4.  Kari Fawcett	Grafton
	5.  Cara Hesson		Point Pleasant
	6.  Adrian Cunningham	Poca
No one in the field has gone under 16 seconds.  Cangemi has the best series with 5 runs under
16.75.  Holland has the 2nd best series with a run under 16.50 and five under 17 seconds.
Farley's regional run of 16.38 is the top time in the field, but her 2nd best run is 17.13.
Fawcett joins Cangemi and Holland with five runs under 17 seconds, but her top time is only
5th best in the field.  Hesson has a pair of runs under 17 seconds, and both occurred in the
Regional Meet.  Cunningham has three runs under 17 seconds.  Only Caitlin Goodwin among the
remaining field has gone under 17 seconds.

300 LH	1.  Adrian Cunningham	Poca
	2.  Monica Pennacchio	Weir
	3.  Donnie Kirk		Sherman
	4.  Mariah Farley	PikeView
	5.  Michelle Williams	Berkeley Springs
	6.  Kristin Boyd	Shady Spring
Cunningham has the only run under 48 seconds in the field.  She has two runs better than
anyone else's best.  She's also the only one in the field to have five runs under 50 seconds.
Pennacchio has only come to the event late in the season, but her last three runs have been
49.04 or better.  Kirk has four runs under 50.  Farley is the only other one to have gone 
under 49 seconds and the only other one with a pair of runs under 50.  Williams has a better
series than Boyd and placed in the event last year.  Boyd has a better top time than Williams.
No one else has been under 50 seconds.

4x100 M	1.  Oak Hill
	2.  Liberty Harrison
	3.  Keyser
	4.  Tyler Consolidated
	5.  Weir
	6.  Independence
Oak Hill is a fairly solid favorite, though Liberty Harrison was faster at their Regional 
Meet.  Keyser is the only other team to have been under 53 seconds.  Tyler Consolidated
has a better series than Weir and beat them at the Regional.  Independence has a slightly
better top time than Ritchie and was faster at the Regional, so they get the final spot.
Ritchie could pull Cheri Bunner from one of her individual events (most likely 300LH)
and put her in this event.  Doing so could move them into the top 3.

4x200 M	1.  Oak Hill
	2.  Liberty Harrison
	3.  Keyser
	4.  Ritchie
	5.  Weir
	6.  Oak Glen
Liberty Harrison has a better top time than Oak Hill, but I think Oak Hill has more in the
tank.  Both have been under 1:49 while no one else has been under 1:50.  Keyser is the only
other team to have been under 1:51.  Ritchie has three runs under 1:52.  Weir is the only
other team to have gone under 1:52.  Oak glen is the only other team to have gone under 1:53.

4x400 M	1.  Weir
	2.  Oak Glen
	3.  Oak Hill
	4.  Keyser
	5.  Grafton
	6.  Liberty Harrison
I think Weir can hit close to 4:10.  I have Oak Glen, Oak Hill, Keyser, and Grafton all being
in the 4:15 range.  I think Liberty Harrison can put together a unit that can run a 4:17.
I have Wayne and Tyler Consolidated with the ability to go 4:18, so they can easily be in that
mix as well.

4x800 M	1.  Weir
	2.  Grafton
	3.  Keyser
	4.  Philip Barbour
	5.  Berkeley Springs
	6.  Ritchie
I don't really think anyone can go under 10:00 this year.  I have Weir in the 10:05 range with
Grafton being able to go 10:12 or so.  I think Keyser can hit close to 10:15 and Philip Barbour
around 10:20.  I have Berkeley Springs can hit around 10:30.  Ritchie and Oak Glen should 
battle for the final spot.  I actually have Oak Glen as showing faster potential, but Ritchie
just beat them at the Regional, so I gave the spot to Ritchie.

Shuttle	1.  Magnolia
	2.  Tyler Consolidated
	3.  Weir
	4.  Poca
	5.  Liberty Raleigh
	6.  Keyser
Magnolia is the only team to have gone under 1:09.  They should have a very nice battle with
Tyler Consolidated and Weir.  Magnolia and Tyler have both gone under 70 seconds five times.
Weir only put together their shuttle unit in the last two meets, but both times have resulted
in runs under 70 seconds.  Poca has a pair of runs under 71.  Liberty Raleigh is the only 
other team to have gone under 71.  Keyser is the only other team with more than one run under
72 seconds, and they've done it four times.

H Jump	1.  Alli Childers	Magnolia
	2.  Brenna Williams	Independence
	3.  Chelsea Sammons	Ritchie
	4.  Jessica Starcher	Lincoln
	5.  Katie Jarrell	Liberty Raleigh
	6.  Kaleena Crane	Oak Glen
Childers is the only one in the field with a pair of 5'2 jumps.  She's also the only one in
the field with five 5'0 jumps.  Williams has the only other 5'2 jump in the field.  She has
three 5'0 jumps to her credit.  Sammons joins Williams as the only jumpers in the field to
clear 5'0 at their respective regional meets.  She has a pair of 5'0 jumps on the season.
Starcher has five 4'10 jumps including one at her Regional.  Jarrell has three 4'10 jumps
including one at her Regional.  Crane also has three 4'10 jumps including one at her Regional.
Mikayla Clegg sports a similar resume.

P Vault	1.  Jackie Clark	Tyler Consolidated
	2.  Vicky Bartlett	Ritchie
	3.  Savannah Robertson	Oak Hill
	4.  Haylea Lemasters	Tyler Consolidated
	5.  Corri Phillips	Braxton
	6.  Kelsey Flinn	Ravenswood
Clarks is the only Vaulter with multiple 9'0 vaults.  She's cleared the height three times.
Bartlett is the only other vaulter to have cleared 8'6 more than once.  She's done it twice,
including at her Regional.  Robertson has a 9'0 vault to her credit, but has only cleared 
8'0 one other time.  Lemasters has a pair of 8'0 vaults.  Phillips has a pair of 7'6 vaults.
Flinn has the only other 7'6 vault in the field.  If the WVSSAC insists on using a 7'0
starting height, we could end up without six placers.

L Jump	1.  Bria Welker		Frankfort
	2.  Madison Cunningham	Lincoln
	3.  Mykayla Garrett	Ritchie
	4.  Mariah Farley	PikeView
	5.  Sarah Wamsley	Point Pleasant
	6.  Holly McDonald	Magnolia
Welker has five jumps better than anyone else's best.  She hsa the only 17' jump in the field.
Cunningham is the only other jumper with multiple 16' jumps.  She has three of them.  Garrett
has the next best series of jumps and the next best top jump.  Farley has the next best series
of jumps and the next best top jump.  Wamsley has the next best series of jumps.  McDonald
has a better top jump than Wamsley, but Wamsley's 2nd through 5th best jumps are better than
McDonald's.  12 jumpers have passed 15'0 this season.

Shot	1.  Harley Stotler	Berkeley Springs
	2.  Alea Hipes		Point Pleasant
	3.  Jessica Starcher	Lincoln
	4.  Jasmine Johnson	PikeView
	5.  Lynsey Casteel	Tyler Consolidated
	6.  Stephanie Shingle	Frankfort
Stotler unleashed a 40' toss at her Regional Meet.  That's nearly 4' futher than anyone else's
best.  However, it's also her best by nearly 5'.  She spent much of the season on the injured
list, and her first meet this year was April 28th.  Hipes is the only one 
in the field with a pair of 36' throws.  Starcher is the only other thrower to have hit 35',
but her 2nd best throw is under 33'.  Johnson is the only other thrower to have topped 33',
and her 2nd through 5th throws are actually better than Starchers.  Casteel has the next
best series.  Shingle has a better top throw than Casteel.  Those six are the only ones to have
topped 32'.

Discus	1.  Eline Solheim	Keyser
	2.  Alicia Marshall	Shady Spring
	3.  Quartney Settle	Oak Hill
	4.  Mikala Nicholson	Roane
	5.  Harley Stotler	Berkeley Springs
	6.  Morgan Shreves	Grafton
Solheim is the only one in the field with 3 throws of 100'.  Marshall is the only other one
to have a pair over 100'.  Marshall has a better top throw, but Solheim has been more
consistent.  Settle has the next best series and joins Solheim as the only throwers with five
throws of 95' or more.  Nicholas has a better top throw than Settle.  Stotler only has the
13th best throw in the field, but as with the Shot Put, she's only recently started throwing
again, and she was in a similar situation last year when she got 2nd at the State Meet.  I 
was afraid to leave her out.  Shreves has the next best top throw.  Mireya Cangemi has a 
better series than Shreves, but her three best throws all came in early-to-mid April.  Jessica
Haugh has a pair of 98' throws, but one came in March and one in mid-April.

High Point Predictions
1.  Bria Welker		Frankfort		38
2.  Sarah McCauley	Philip Barbour		29
3.  Neaire Miller	Oak Hill		19.50
4.  Mercedes Lawson	Oak Hill		19
5.  Shakilya Cosby	Oak Hill		18