Class A Girls Individual Predictions

Individual Predictions

100 M	1.  Randi Jenkins	East Hardy
	2.  Kelsea Fickiesen	St. Marys
	3.  Kylie Hammer	Williamstown
	4.  Talisa Smith	Mount Hope
	5.  Alexandrine Ratnani	Charleston Catholic
	6.  Jessica Montgomery	Gilmer
Jenkins only has the 7th best time in the field, but she was 4th in the event last year.
Fickiesen has the top time and the top series.  Hammer has the 2nd best series in the field.
Smith won the Gazette relays and has the 2nd best top time in the field.  Ratnani has a pair
of runs under 13.40.  Montgomery has four runs under 13.45.  A special mention for Jackie
Riggleman who won the event last year, but has yet to run under 14 seconds this year that
I've seen. I suppose you have to consider her a threat.

200 M	1.  Randi Jenkins	East Hardy
	2.  Alexandrine Ratnani	Charleston Catholic
	3.  D'Andra Swiger	Doddridge
	4.  Kelsea Fickiesen	St. Marys
	5.  Kylie Hammer	Williamstown
	6.  Bethany Earley	Williamstown
As with the 100, Jenkins doesn't have the top time or series, but she won this event last
year and hadn't been particularly impressive then either.  Ratnani has the top time and 
the best series.  Swiger has the 2nd best top time and a series that is very close to 
Ratnani's.  Fickiesen has the third best top time and series, but she hasn't been under
28 seconds since April 10th.  Hammer has the next best series.  Earley has a better top
time than Hammer, but the series isn't as strong.  Only ten girls in the field have run
under 29 seconds.

400 M	1.  Gretchen Lantz	South Harrison
	2.  D'Andra Swiger	Doddridge
	3.  Ali Johnson		St. Marys
	4.  Ciara Flowers	Williamstown
	5.  Rachel Taylor	St. Marys
	6.  Hunter Holland	Doddridge
Lantz has the only run under 61 seconds and is the only one with three runs under 62 seconds,
and she finished 2nd last year.  Swiger is the only other one to have gone under 62 seconds,
and she's done it twice.  Johnson is the only other one to have gone under 63 seconds, and
she's done it twice, plus she was 3rd in the event last year.  Flowers is the only other one
to have gone under 64 seconds.  Five others have gone under 65 seconds.  Taylor was the
fastest of that group at the regional.  Holland has the best time of that group, but she'll
have to run from the first heat.


800 M	1.  Maggie Drazba	St. Marys
	2.  Beverly Knight	St. Marys
	3.  Samantha Harris	Charleston Catholic
	4.  Bethany Carroll	Doddridge
	5.  Emily Bucon		Wheeling Central
	6.  Dani Renner		St. Marys
Drazba is the only one to have gone under 2:30.  Her best time is nearly 3 seconds ahead of
the field.  Then it gets very tight.  2nd through 9th are separated by less than four seconds.
2nd through 8th are separated by just over 2 seconds.  Knight gets the nod because she has
the best series and she was 2nd last year.  Harris gets the pick for 3rd due to upward 
potential.  Based on her 1600 and 3200, I have to believe she can go faster.  Carroll has
the 2nd best time in the field and was 3rd last year, so she could move up.  Bucon has a 
pair of runs under 2:33.  Renner is the only other one in the field to have gone under 2:33.
Jessie John, Katrin Schwarz, and Maddie Dean have all been 2:35 or better and are serious
threats to place.

1600 M	1.  Maggie Drazba	St. Marys
	2.  Samantha Harris	Charleston Catholic
	3.  Bethany Carroll	Doddridge
	4.  Beverly Knight	St. Marys
	5.  Katrin Schwarz	South Harrison
	6.  Adalia Trudgeon	Doddridge
Drazba has four runs better than anyone else's best.  However, her top time is only six
seconds faster than Harris, so Harris is definitely a threat.  Those two have gone under
5:30.  No one else in the field has been under 5:40.  Carroll has run 5:40 and is the only
remaining competitor to have multiple runs under 5:50.  Knight has the next best series
and was 2nd in the event last year.  Schwarz has run under 5:45.  Trudgeon and Brianna
Mazzella are the only other runners in the field to have gone under 6:00 this season.
Trudgeon has a better series, so she gets the spot.

3200 M	1.  Maggie Drazba	St. Marys
	2.  Samantha Harris	Charleston Catholic
	3.  Bethany Carroll	Doddridge
	4.  Adalia Trudgeon	Doddridge
	5.  Heather Gray	Williamstown
	6.  MaeBeth Fisher	Moorefield
Drazba and Harris should have a good battle.  Harris ran away from Drazba at the Gazette
Relays.  Drazba ran away from Harris at the Regional Meet.  Harris has a better series, but
I keep thinking back to how dominant Drazba was in Cross Country, and I have to believe
she'll win.  Carroll is pretty solidly in 3rd.  Trudgeon has the next best series.  Gray
has the next best series after that.  Fisher has the next best series after that.  Brittani
Gaskins actually has a better top time than Gray or Fisher, so she's a threat.

100 HH	1.  Lacey Hampton	Bishop Donahue
	2.  Amanda Sellers	Paden City
	3.  Keeper Gray		Williamstown
	4.  Kylie Hammer	Williamstown
	5.  Malee McGill	St. Marys
	6.  Caitlyn Tomczyk	Wheeling Central
Hampton is far and away the favorite.  Her top time is over a second better than anyone else.
Her 5th best time is 0.83 better than anyone else.  Sellers has the next best series.  Gray
has the 2nd best top time, but her series is far short of Sellers.  Hammer has the next best
series, just a little ahead of McGill in all but one spot.  Tomczyk is the only other one
to have gone under 17 seconds, but that happened on 4/1.  Regardless, she has the next best
series of times, though Lincoln Postlewaite could knock her off.

300 LH	1.  Ali Johnson		St. Marys
	2.  Gretchen Lantz	South Harrison
	3.  Lacey Hampton	Bishop Donahue
	4.  Amanda Sellers	Paden City
	5.  Haley Hinchman	Richwood
	6.  Hattie Hutson	Doddridge
It's possible for any of these first four to win this events.  Johnson has the top time 
in the field and is one of just two in the field to have five runs under 50 seconds.  In 
addition, she won the event last year.  Lantz actually is the other with five runs under
50 seconds and was 2nd last year.  Hampton has only run the event four times that I've seen.
They've all been under 49, but none have been faster than 48.75.  Sellers has a pair of runs
under 50 seconds and was 3rd in the event last year.  Hinchman is the only other one in
the field to have gone under 52 seconds and has four runs better than anyone else's best.
Hutson and Leanne Watson have a pair of runs under 53 seconds.  Hutson place 4th last year
and won the Regional matchup, so she gets the spot.

4x100 M	1.  Williamstown
	2.  Charleston Catholic
	3.  Paden City
	4.  Madonna
	5.  Williamson
	6.  Gilmer
Williamstown seems to have the best depth.  They have the best time and the best series of
times.  However, none of their five best runs have occurred in May.  Charleston Catholic
is the only other team to have been under 54 seconds.  Paden City has the next best time
in the field.  Madonna and Williamson have a pair of runs under 55 seconds.  Gilmer is the
only other team in the field to have gone under 55 seconds.

4x200 M	1.  Williamson
	2.  Charleston Catholic
	3.  Williamstown
	4.  Gilmer
	5.  Madonna
	6.  East Hardy
Williamson and Charleston Catholic have equal best times.  Neither was particularly impressive
at their Regional though.  Williamstown has the next best series.  Gilmer has a better top
time than Williamstown, but that happened on April 1st, and they haven't been within half a
second of that time since.  Madonna has the next best top time and the next best series.
East Hardy has the next best top time and an excellent closer.

4x400 M	1.  St. Marys
	2.  Williamstown
	3.  Doddridge
	4.  Wheeling Central
	5.  Charleston Catholic
	6.  Wirt
I have St. Marys and Williamstown both in the 4:18 range.  St. Marys has been faster, so
they get the spot.  I have Doddridge showing an ability to go about 4:20.  I think that will
put them a little ahead of Wheeling Central.  Charleston Catholic can hit 4:23 or so.  I 
think Wirt can go 4:28 or so.  I'm not confident anyone else can go under 4:30.

4x800 M	1.  St. Marys
	2.  Wheeling Central
	3.  Doddridge
	4.  Williamstown
	5.  Charleston Catholic
	6.  Wirt
I think St. Marys and Wheeling Central can both hit in the 10:15 range.  I think it will be
very close, but I'm giving St. Marys the edge.  I have Doddridge hitting just under 10:30
and Williamstown hitting just over 10:30.  Charleston Catholic can get close to that range.
With some shuffling, they might be able to go under 10:30.  Wirt has run 10:39.  I don't know
if they can go any better than that.  I really don't think anyone else will be particularly
close to these six.

Shuttle	1.  Williamstown
	2.  Paden City
	3.  South Harrison
	4.  St. Marys
	5.  Madonna
	6.  Wheeling Central
Williamstown has three runs under 1:09.  No one else has been under.  Paden City has four
runs under 1:10.  No one else has been under.  South Harrison has the next best top time
and four runs under 1:12.  They'll be in the 2nd of four heats, so they'll have to do it
mostly on their own.  St. Marys has a pair of runs under 1:12.  Madonna has a better top
time than St. Marys, but no other runs under 1:13.  Wheeling Central has a pair of runs
under 1:13.  Only Tucker and Bishop Donahue have been under 1:13 of the remaining field.

H Jump	1.  Lacey Hampton	Bishop Donahue
	2.  D'Andra Swiger	Doddridge
	3.  Taylor Pickens	St. Marys
	4.  Jamie Hanlin	Union
	5.  Jamie Bailey	Richwood
	6.  Morgan Mullens	Richwood
Hampton is the only jumper to have cleared 5'4.  She also has four 5'2 jumps.  Swiger is the
only other jumper to clear 5'2.  She also has four other 5'0 jumps.  Pickens has a pair of
5'0 jumps and three of 4'10.  Hanlin has a 5'0 and a pair of 4'10 jumps.  Bailey has a 5'1
jump and a 5'0 jump.  Mullens has a 5'1 and a 4'10.

P Vault	1.  Liz Flowers		Williamstown
	2.  Lincoln Postlewaite	Williamstown
	3.  Emily Sherrard	Charleston Catholic
	4.  Ciarra Kobasko	Bishop Donahue
	5.  Kelsie Marple	Doddridge
	6.  Brooke Cieslewski	Williamstown
Flowers is the only one to have cleared 9'6, and she's done it twice.  She has three total
vaults of 9'0.  Postlewaite is the only other vaulter to have cleared 9'0.  Sherrard has
an 8'8 vault and an 8'6 vault and a pair of 8'0 vaults.  No one else has been higher than
7'6.  Kobasko is the only other vaulter with more than one 7'6 clearance, and she has two.
Marple and Cieslewski each have one 7'6 vault.  Marple got hers at the Regional Meet, so 
she gets the spot.

L Jump	1.  Gretchen Lantz	South Harrison
	2.  Kelsea Fickiesen	St. Marys
	3.  Ali Johnson		St. Marys
	4.  Dani Hayes		Valley Wetzel
	5.  Talisa Smith	Mount Hope
	6.  Teryn Huffman	Wheeling Central
Lantz has a 17'0 jump and five jumps of 16'0 or better.  Fickiesen also has a 17'0 jump
but only has two other 16'0 jumps to go with it.  Johnson is the only other jumper to hit
16'0, and she's done it twice, though not since 4/10.  She's also the only other vaulter
with five 15'0 jumps.  Hayes has four jumps over 14'6.  Smith jumped 15'6 1/4 at the Gazette
Relays, but her next best jump is only 14'5.  Huffman has the next best top jump and her
three best jumps are in her last three meets.  Kathleen Cornell is the only other jumper
to have soared past 15'0.

Shot	1.  Ashley Sigler	St. Marys
	2.  Leanne Watson	Clay-Battelle
	3.  Hunter House	Williamstown
	4.  Shila Allman	Williamstown
	5.  Katie Miller	East Hardy
	6.  Danielle Hershey	Buffalo
Sigler has the top throw in the field and has four throws over 32'6.  Watson has a pair of
throws over 33' and also has four over 32'0.  House is the only other thrower with five
throws of 30'0.  Allman is the only other thrower to have topped 31'0 and has a better top
throw than House.  However, her second best throw is under 30'.  Miller has one throw over
30' and three others over 29'.  Hershey has five throws over 29'.  Tiffany Jones has a pair
of throws over 30', but Miller just beat her at both the Conference and Regional Meets.

Discus	1.  Ashley Sigler	St. Marys
	2.  Taylor Pavan	Madonna
	3.  Shila Allman	Williamstown
	4.  Audra Clark		St. Marys
	5.  Jenna Noice		Bishop Donahue
	6.  Kimber Odle		Doddridge
Sigler is the only one in the field with more than one 100' throw.  Pavan has a 100' throw
and two others over 95'.  Allman has a 100' throw and tow others over 95' also.  Clark has
four throws of 94'0 or better, and they've all been recent.  Noice also has four throws over
94', but Clark is just a little further on all four throws.  Odle has a pair of throws over
90' and has a better top throw than Noice.  Allison Gilkerson and Hunter House have also
thrown beyond 90' this season.

High Point Predictions
1.  Maggie Drazba	St. Marys		32.50
2.  Gretchen Lantz	South Harrison		29.50
3.  Lacey Hampton	Bishop Donahue		26
4.  Ali Johnson		St. Marys		24.50
5.  D'Andra Swiger	Doddridge		23.50