2009 State Meet Predictions

RunWV Predictions
Class AAA Girls

Class AAA Girls Individual Event Predictions

Individual Predictions

100 M 1. Brittany Carr Jefferson
2. Jasmyn Hosby Washington
3. Janey Hall Parkersburg
4. Moriah Njoku Woodrow Wilson
5. Danielle Winningham Cabell Midland
6. Shalynn Dickens Martinsburg
This one is difficult. There are so many shaky hand-times in the mix that it's hard to know exactly
what some of these people can really do. I'm going with Carr for the win on the strength of winning
what I feel is the fastest region and that fact that she has won the event the last two years. Hosby
is placed in 2nd based on her series, though the top end times of her series are hand times. Hall
has a complete series of five FAT times under 13 seconds. She's the only one in the field that has
that. Njoku has run her top 3 times in the last two meets. Winningham has three runs under 13
seconds including her last two meets. Dickens is one of only three in the field to have five runs
under 13 seconds. Two of those runs are hand-times, though, and none of the top 4 came after April
22nd. Buckhannon-Upshur's Ashley White has five electronic runs of 13.00 or better and was 6th last
year. She was the final "at-large" qualifier this year, but she could still easily place. Also look
for Greenbrier East's Katie Meadows, Martinsburg's Felicia Spragg, and Musselman's Tara Sharpe.

200 M 1. Savannah Rutherford Spring Valley
2. Moriah Njoku Woodrow Wilson
3. Janey Hall Parkersburg
4. Danielle Winningham Cabell Midland
5. Ashley White Buckhannon-Upshur
6. Nicole Hill South Charleston
Rutherford has the best top time and the best series. Though two of her top five are hand-times,
her best one isn't. Njoku hadn't run the open all season until the Regional. Her top time is
just barely off Rutherford's, and her 2nd best time is also just barely off Rutherford's. Hall's
two best times have come in her last two meets. Winningham has a better series than Hall, but
Hall did beat her in both the Conference and Regional Meets. White's top five runs are all FAT
and under 27 seconds. No one else has that. Hill has an excellent Regional meet. Those most
likely to break the lineup are Woodrow Wilson's Kayla Bryant, Winfield's Emily Daly, Musselman's
Tara Sharpe, and Washington's Jasmyn Hosby.

400 M 1. Savannah Rutherford Spring Valley
2. Danielle Winningham Cabell Midland
3. Josie Crouch Hurricane
4. Cari Shaffer Morgantown
5. Alyssa Scherich Fairmont Senior
6. Molly Harrington Huntington
Rutherford won the Regional battle of the top 3. However, she finished 3rd in the Conference Meet
against the same group. But...she has five runs of 58.4 or better. No one else has more than two.
Winningham has the 2nd best series and the 2nd best top time. Crouch has been about a half-second
behind Winningham all year. She won the event last year in 57.40, so it's certainly no stretch to
say that she could win this. The top three all have at least five times faster than anyone else's
best. Suffice it to say that anyone outside of these three would be a major upset. Shaffer is the
only other one in the field to have gone under 60 seconds. Scherich has three runs under 61 seconds.
Harrington has the next best top time and was 4th in the event last year. South Charleston's
Chantel Lloyd is the most likely to steal a place away. Hampshire's Rana Conneway and Hurricane's
Chloe Barber have each been under 62 on multiple occasions.

800 M 1. Josie Crouch Hurricane
2. Letitia Propst Elkins
3. Cassy Menas North Marion
4. Allison Pettit Morgantown
5. Susie Godwin Buckhannon-Upshur
6. Jennfer Van der Sloot University
Crouch is clearly the favorite. Her top time is over 6 seconds ahead of anyone else. Her 5th best
time is better than anyone else's best. Propst was 2nd last year and has the 2nd best top time.
Menas has cranked out 2:23 and 2:22 in her last two meets. Pettit has run under 2:25 on three
occasions. Godwin has a pair of runs under 2:25, as does Van der Sloot. Godwin has a slightly
better top time and a slightly better series and won the Conference meeting, so she gets the
nod. It should be noted that both Godwin and Van der Sloot beat Pettit at the Conference Meet, so
some juggling of these places is very possible. Hurricane's Sarah Davis and Cabell Midland's
Rachel Williams have each run under 2:25. The two runners who tied for 3rd last year are in the
field as well, Parkersburg's Tori Boggs and Wheeling Park's Courtney Yaeger. Yaeger only recently
resumed competition, and I just don't think she's had enough time to get into the shape needed.
Boggs just doesn't have the stats to justify placing her ahead of any of this crew.

1600 M 1. Alex Dent Hurricane
2. Jennifer Van der Sloot University
3. Ari Kasprowicz Preston
4. Andrea Nickerson Jefferson
5. Megan Truelove Winfield
6. Courtney Yaeger Wheeling Park
Dent has the top time in the field and a pair of runs under 5:10. Van der Sloot has also gone under
5;10 with her stellar Conference run. Kasprowicz just beat Van der Sloot at the Regional Meet and
has a pair of runs under 5:20. Nickerson has the next best time of the group and finished just off
Van der Sloot at the Gazette Relays. Truelove is the only other runner to have gone under 5:20.
She's been 5:21 or under three times. Yaeger is the defending champion. As mentioned above, she's
only recently resumed competing and isn't in peak condition. However, her time from her Conference
Meet on 5/9 is only about 2.5 seconds off the 6th best time in the field. I'm betting that she's
been able to make that up in two weeks. There are 10 runners in the field who have run under 5:25
(all those placing plus, Capital's Christine Azevedo, Cabell Midland's Rachel Williams, Capital's
Chelsea Jarvis, and University's Sarah Martinelli) along with wildcard Jordan McDonald of North
Marion who, in case you missed it, clocked an 11:05 indoor 3200 over the winter before battling
illness much of the season.

3200 M 1. Ari Kasprowicz Preston
2. Alex Dent Hurricane
3. Letitia Propst Elkins
4. Alyssa Boucher Jefferson
5. Allison Pettit Morgantown
6. Jordan McDonald North Marion
Kasprowicz has the top time in the group. She's only run it twice with both times being 11:12 or
better. Dent has the only other run under 11:10. Propst has a better series than Dent and great
finishing speed. Boucher has a better top time than Propst and beat her at the Gazette Relays,
so she could definitely move up. Pettit has three runs under 11:30, which only she and Boucher
can claim. McDonald only has the 7th best time, but she did run 11:33 at the Conference Meet two
weeks ago and, of course, that 11:05 indoor time which would be 2nd only to Kasprowicz's 11:03 in
this field. She probably hasn't had enough time to get back there, but should be able to move into
a placing spot. University's Sarah Martinelli has a better top time than McDonald and is one of
six in the field to have run under 11:30. Winfield's Megan Truelove and Capital's Chelsea Jarvis
are the only other runners in the field to have been under 12:00.

100 HH 1. Taylor Brown Jefferson
2. Alexis Shearer Nicholas
3. Valerie Kirk Winfield
4. Ellen Sparks Cabell Midland
5. Hilary Hewitt John Marshall
6. Hannah Gompers Wheeling Park
Brown has the best top time and the best series. However, her top three times are all hand-times.
Luckily, her best FAT time is still better than anyone else. Shearer has really come on late in
the season and was 2nd in the vent last year. Kirk has a better series than Shearer and has five
FAT runs of 15.86 or better. Sparks gets the nod over Hewitt for having a better series. Hewitt
has a better top time, but her # 2 time is at 16.10. Sparks has three better than that. Gompers
hasn't been under 16 seconds, but she did place 4th last year and had a better Regional run than
Woodrow Wilson's Oliva Moore. Fairmont Senior's Alyssa Scherich has the 5th best time in the group,
is one of only five in the field with more than one sub-16 FAT time. However, both of those runs
came in mid-April, and she'll be the only one in the field to have already run the 400 and the 300's
in the morning session.

300 LH 1. Taylor Brown Jefferson
2. Miranda Rios Wheeling Park
3. Nicole Fluharty Parkersburg South
4. Alyssa Scherich Fairmont Senior
5. Carrie Shaffer Morgantown
6. Julie Young John Marshall
Brown has the top time in the field and five runs under 47 seconds. No one else has more than two.
Rios ran under 46.1 in both her Conference and Regional Meets. Fluharty's top two runs have come
in her last two meets. Scherich and Shaffer each have a better overall series than Fluharty, but
Fluharty has a better top time and won't have just run the 400. Scherich has a better top time
and a better series than Shaffer. Young actually has the 3rd best top time in the bunch and a
better series than Shaffer. She'll be running from the 1st heat though. Buckhannon-Upshur's
Susie Godwin, Lewis County's Kristen McWhorter, Winfield's Jade Smith, and Cabell Midland's Kinsey
Hall have each run under 48.2.

4x100 M 1. Jefferson
2. Woodrow Wilson
3. Martinsburg
4. Washington
5. Wheeling Park
6. South Charleston
Jefferson has the only sub-50 clocking in the bunch and has at least five runs under 51. Woodrow
Wilson had the 2nd best Regional showing and has three runs under 51. Washington has the 2nd best
top time and three runs under 51. I'm not 100% sure they'll be at full strength at the State Meet,
though, and Martinsburg has beaten them in the last two meets. Wheeling Park has the next best
series and the next best top time. South Charleston gets the nod over Capital and Parkersburg
based on Regional Performance. If Buckhannon-Upshur were to add Ashley White to this relay, they'd
be in the mix for placing.

4x200 M 1. Woodrow Wilson
2. Jefferson
3. Washington
4. Wheeling Park
5. Parkersburg
6. Buckhannon-Upshur
Woodrow Wilson is the only team to have run under 1:47, and they've done it twice. Jefferson
barely missed the mark at their Regional Meet. Washington is the only other team to have been
under 1:48. Wheeling Park has a slightly better top time than Buckhannon-Upshur, and the unit
is only one person removed from the group that ran 1:45 last year. Parkersburg could add Janey
Hall to their unit. If they do, they could climb into the top four. If they don't, they probably
don't place. Buckhannon-Upshur gets the nod over Winfield for the last spot based on a better
Regional time. Martinsburg could be a factor if they add Shalyn Dickens to their lineup. South
Charleston is the next most likely to squeeze into a spot.

4x400 M 1. Cabell Midland
2. Hurricane
3. Fairmont Senior
4. Buckhannon-Upshur
5. Spring Valley
6. Parkersburg
Cabell Midland has the top time. I don't know if they can go any faster than they already have,
but they might not have to. Hurricane isn't far off, but Midland did beat them at both the Regional
and the Conference Meets. Fairmont Senior can add Jenai Stubbs to their unit, and if they do, I
can see them going 4:08. Buckhannon-Upshur could put Ashley White here as well. That could put
them in the 4:08 range as well. Spring Valley has the 3rd best time of the group. I have trouble
seeing them going any faster. I do know that if I were Fairmont Senior and Buckhannon-Upshur, I
wouldn't want Savannah Rutherford chasing me. Parkersburg has a better top time than Fairmont
Senior or Buckhannon-Upshur, but I don't know if they can go any faster than they already have.
I think North Marion, Elkins, and Winfield are the most likely to steal spots.

4x800 M 1. Hurricane
2. University
3. Elkins
4. Jefferson
5. North Marion
6. Buckhannon-Upshur
Hurricane already clocked a 9:32 at the Gazette Relays. No one has ben within 12 seconds of them.
They should break the State Meet Record and have a good shot at the All-Time Record if they really
push themselves. University can go in the low 9:40's. Elkins can go under 9:50 and did beat
University at the Conference Meet. Jefferson has just missed going under 10:00 twice. North Marion
has only run a 10:14, but when I look at their lineup, and I think they can run under 10:00.
Buckhannon-Upshur has gone 10:01. If they were to add Susie Godwin to the lineup, they could
conceivably challenge Elkins for 3rd. Parkersburg and Preston have the ability to go under 10:05.
I don't know if either can go under 10:00, but they'll be in the mix. I think Morgantown can go
in the 10:05 range as well if they put Alison Pettit on their squad.

Shuttle 1. Wheeling Park
2. John Marshall
3. Jefferson
4. Cabell Midland
5. Winfield
6. Woodrow Wilson
Wheeling Park has the top time in the field and returns the entire group that set the State Meet
record last year. John Marshall has a pair of runs under 1:06 and will be ready if Wheeling Park
stumbles, as they did in the Regional Meet. Jefferson has the only other run under 1:06. Cabell
Midland was faster than Jefferson at the Regional Meet. Winfield edged Woodrow Wilson at the
Gazette Relays and was faster at their respective Regional meets. Nicholas County and Parkersburg
have also run under 1:08 at some point during the season.

L Jump 1. Shardinae Adams Lewis
2. Kristen McWhorter Lewis
3. Meghan Ruddlesden Parkersburg
4. Cayla Parrish North Marion
5. Lauren Neely Lewis
6. Michelle Oye Woodrow Wilson
The top three have each topped 16' during the season. Ruddlesden has done it twice. She has the
top jump and the best series. However, the most recent of her best five jumps is from April 25th
and she was under 15' at her Regional. Adams and McWhorter are somewhat interchangeable. Adams
has a better top jump, but just by an inch, but it's enough to give her the nod. Parrish only has
the 9th best top jump in the field, but she has 5 jumps of at least 15'3. She's the only one outside
the top 3 that has that. Neely has a pair of jumps over 15'8. Oye finished 3rd in the event last
year and does have three jumps over 15'3 making her one of only five that have that. There are
plenty of other threats. Elkins' Cora Fry went 15'11 at her Regional. Wheeling Park's Alicia
Bonar went 15'10 1/2 at hers. 19 of the 20 qualifying jumpers have topped 15' at some point during
the season.

H Jump 1. Paula Renteria Preston
2. Leah Warner Elkins
3. Kalee Trippett Bridgeport
4. Emily Cline Greenbrier East
5. Tiffany Oldaker Bridgeport
6. McKenzie Wardwell Woodrow Wilson
Renteria has the best series. No one has multiple jumps of 5'4, but Renteria has four jumps of
5'2 and no one else has more than two. Warner has the only other 5'4 leap and is one of only two
remaining jumpers with more than one leap of 5'2. Trippett is the other. Trippett has actually
topped 5'2 more times than Warner, but Warner hit 5'4 at the Regional Meet. Cline has a 5'2, a
5'1, and a 5'0 jump to her credit, had her 5'2 jump at her Regional Meet, and placed 3rd last year.
Oldaker has a 5'2 and four 5'0 jumps. The 5'2 came back in March, though. Wardwell has a 5'2
jump and three 5'0 or higher jumps in May. Nicholas County's Ashleigh Taylor, Fairmont Senior's
Brooklyn Little, and Buckhannon-Upshur's Ashley Hall each have 5'2 jumps to their credit.

Shot 1. Karissa Knabenshue Buckhannon-Upshur
2. Sammie Hicks Parkersburg South
3. Miranda Hicks Martinsburg
4. Megan Turley Hurricane
5. Kiana Weller Jefferson
6. Rebecca Small Morgantown
Knabenshue has the top throw in the field. She has two throws over 38' and two others over 37'.
Sammie Hicks has a slightly better overall series than Miranda Hicks. Her top throw, though,
came at the Erickson Invitational and their downhill Shot Put area. She did place 2nd in the event
last year, though, so Sammie gets the nod over Miranda for 2nd. Hurricane's Megan Turley has
the next best series of throws. Weller and Small each have three throws over 33'. Weller has a
slightly better overall series than Small. Logan's Rojet Lowe and Wheeling Park's Marisa Custer
also have three throws over 33'. Lowe actually has four. However, their top end throws aren't
as good as Weller and Small.

Discus 1. Shannon Hooper Capital
2. Miranda Hicks Martinsburg
3. Karissa Knabenshue Buckhannon-Upshur
4. Susie Godwin Buckhannon-Upshur
5. Alexis Montes John Marshall
6. Coleisia Goard Woodrow Wilson
Hooper's top throw of 139'4 is nearly 21' further than anyone else's best. Her 5th best throw is
over 5' better than anyone else's best. Hicks has a better series than Knabenshue. Knabenshue
does have the 2nd best top throw in the field, and she did it at her regional. Godwin is the only
other thrower with multiple tosses over 110'. Montes has only been seen in three meets, but each
meet has been at least 106'. Goard has only one throw over 97', but it was her 108' Regional
toss. If she can duplicate that, she could be knocking on the door of a top 4. Ripley's Samantha
Hatcher, Hurricane's Kristen Cook, Capital's Shauna Hooper, South Charleston's Lashea Strader,
and Wheeling Park's Marlo Trabert each have a pair of 100' throws on the season.

P Vault 1. Jaclyn Schiffour Hurricane
2. Jackie Kriss Hedgesville
3. Savana Whiting Ripley
4. Destiny Brindle Hedgesville
5. Adriann Gaylor Winfield
6. Emma Dolan Wheeling Park
Schiffour, Kriss, and Whiting have each cleared 9'6. None has done it multiple times. Schiffour
and Kriss did it at their Regional Meet. Schiffour has a slightly better overall series than Kriss.
Kriss and Whiting have identical series, but Kriss gets the nod based upon the Regional performance.
Brindle is the only other vaulter with a pair of 9'0 vaults. Gaylor, Dolan, John Marshall's Kiley
Defibaugh, and Parkersburg's Cassandra McCarty have the same series: One 9'0 vault, three 8'6 vaults
and an 8'0 vault. Gaylor was the only one to get her 9'0 vault at the regional, so she gets the nod.
Dolan's top three vaults have all come in May, so she gets the final spot.


High Point Predictions
1.  Taylor Brown	Jefferson		24
2.  Alex Dent		Hurricane		22.50
3.  Josie Crouch	Hurricane		20.50
3.  Savannah Rutherford	Spring Valley		20.50
5.  Moriah Njoku	Woodrow Wilson		16.50
5.  Danielle Winningham	Cabell Midland		16.50