Class AA Girls Individual Event Predictions

Individual Predictions
100 M	1.  Deja Jones		Oak Hill
	2.  Demi Kirk		Sherman
	3.  Candace Brown	Summers
	4.  Cheri Bunner	Ritchie
	5.  Morgan Cottrell	Roane
	6.  Mercedes Lawson	Oak Hill
Jones is the defending champion and has five runs at least as good as anyone else's best.
Kirk is the only other one with more than one run under 13 seconds.  She has five FAT runs
of 13.01 or better.  Brown has a slightly better series than Bunner, but Bunner did place
4th in the event last year.  Cottrell beat Bunner at the Regional Meet.  Lawson's series
is just about equivalent to Cottrell's.  Philip Barbour's Marteney Jacobs and Sherman's
Donnie Kirk are the biggest threats to move into a spot.

200 M	1.  Shakilya Cosby	Oak Hill
	2.  Mercedes Lawson	Oak Hill
	3.  Demi Kirk		Sherman
	4.  Cheri Bunner	Ritchie
	5.  Donnie Kirk		Sherman
	6.  Ebony Brown		Independence
Cosby has the best top time and the best series.  Lawson isn't far off on either count, though.
Demi Kirk has three FAT runs under 27 seconds.  Bunner has the next best series.  Donnie Kirk
is the only other one in the field with multiple runs under 28 seconds.  Each of the top five
have at least five runs under 28 seconds.  No one else has more than one.  Brown is the only
other one to have gone under 28 seconds, and she has the next best Regional time.  Only 6 
girls in the field have run under 28.

400 M	1.  Shakilya Cosby	Oak Hill
	2.  Hailee Temple	Oak Glen
	3.  Vicky Bartlett	Ritchie
	4.  Rheanna Foley	Tyler Consolidated
	5.  Crystal Moreland	Frankfort
	6.  Demi Kirk		Sherman
Cosby is the only one to have been under 60 seconds and she's done it three times.  She's been
in the 57's one, the 58's once, and the 59's once.  She also won the event last year.  Her top
time is over 2.3 seconds ahead of everyone else.  Temple is the only other runner to have
gone under 61, and she very nearly cracked the 60 second barrier.  Bartlett has at least five
runs under 62 seconds.  Foley beat Bartlett at the Regional Meet.  Moreland is the only other
runner to have gone under 62 seconds.  Kirk has been under 63 twice and placed 5th last year.
She'll have to run from the 1st heat, though.  Roane's Andrea Sztraka, Wayne's Shannon
Rutherford, and Shady Spring's Kelsey Paine have each been under 63 seconds.

800 M	1.  Chelsea Callaway	Shady Spring
	2.  Hailee Temple	Oak Glen
	3.  Kelsey Paine	Shady Spring
	4.  Neaire Miller	Oak Hill
	5.  Kaylen Poston	Grafton
	6.  Crystal Moreland	Frankfort
Callaway has the best time in the field by nearly 2 seconds and has three other runs under
2:30.  Temple had the best regional showing and has three runs under 2:30.  Paine also has
three runs under 2:30.  No one else has been under 2:30 more than once.  Miller has four
runs under 2:32 and finished 2nd in the event last year, so she could definitely move up.
Poston has been under 2:32 in both her last two meets.  Moreland doesn't have the next best
time or the next best series, but she was 4th in the event last year and has the speed to
win the whole thing.  Herbert Hoover's Erica Hayes, Wayne's Shannon Rutherford, and 
Frankfort's Rebekah Messenger are the most likely to move up.

1600 M	1.  Sarah McCauley	Philip Barbour
	2.  Rebekah McBride	Frankfort
	3.  Amber Adkins	Philip Barbour
	4.  Chelsea Callaway	Shady Spring
	5.  Erica Hayes		Herbert Hoover
	6.  Neaire Miller	Oak Hill
McCauley has three runs under 5:35, while no one else has more than one.  She also has the 
top time and is the defending champion.  It's a tossup after that.  The next 6 have top
times that are within 2.5 seconds of each other.  It should be a lot of fun to watch.
McBride was 2nd last year.  Adkins has a pair of 5:35's and has beaten McCauley on occasion.
Callaway has a pair of runs under 5:40 and good speed.  Hayes also has a pair of runs under
5:40.  Miller placed 5th last year and has the 5th best time in the field.  Weir's Tricia
Marker will also be a prime threat as she also has a pair of runs under 5:40.

3200 M	1.  Chelsea Callaway	Shady Spring
	2.  Amber Adkins	Philip Barbour
	3.  Sarah McCauley	Philip Barbour
	4.  Rebekah McBride	Frankfort
	5.  Tricia Marker	Weir
	6.  Desiree Roseberry	Shady Spring
Callaway has the best time in the group and the best series.  Adkins has three runs under
12:10.  McCauley has four runs under 12:10.  McBride has a faster top time than McCauley
and another run under 12:10.  Any of these four winning would not be a surprise.  These
four have all run under 11:55.  No one else has been under 12:10.  Marker is the only other
one in the field to have gone under 12:30.  I gave Roseberry the nod for 6th based, honestly,
on her State Meet Cross Country run.  That may not translate, but it's there.  Frankfort's
Brittany Armentrout, PikeView's Chelsea East, Berkeley Spring's Macy Houck, and Oak Hill's
Amber Koch have each run under 12:40.

100 HH	1.  Kandis Castelli	Weir
	2.  Marteney Jacobs	Philip Barbour
	3.  Sydney Cummings	Sissonville
	4.  Tiffany Lohri	Tyler Consolidated
	5.  Jessica Saunders	Poca
	6.  Nicole Holland	Weir
Castelli and Jacobs have been under 15.7 more than once.  No one else has been under 16.6.
This should be a two person race.  Castelli has a better top time and a better series and
was 3rd last year.  Jacobs has five runs under 16 seconds.  Cummings only picked the event
up for her Conference and Regional Meets, but she's been under 17 seconds both times.  No
one else has done it more than once.  Lohri has the next best series.  Saunders has the 
next best series and a run under 17 seconds.  That run was a hand-time, though, and her
second best run is only 17.26.  Holland could easily take the spot away from her.  The most
likely to place would be Liberty Raleigh's Mireya Cangemi, PikeView's Mariah Farley, and
Roane's Brittany Armstead.  Only four girls in the field have electronic clockings under 17.

300 LH	1.  Marteney Jacobs	Philip Barbour
	2.  Kandis Castelli	Weir
	3.  Ashli Knotts	Roane
	4.  Cheri Bunner	Ritchie
	5.  Mariah Farley	PikeView
	6.  Adrian Cunningham	Poca
Jacobs has the top time in the field and a slightly better series than Castelli.  Castelli
has a slightly better series than Knotts.  The front three have each been under 49 at least
four times.  No one else in the field has even been under 50 twice.  It would be a major
upset for anyone outside these three to win it.  Bunner has the footspeed to make herself
a factor.  She and Farley are the only other ones to have gone under 50 seconds.  Cunningham
is the only other one to have gone under 51.  Berkeley Springs' Michelle Williams, 
Independence's Jessicua Murray, and Tyler Consolidated's Tiffany Lohri have been under 51.5.

4x100 M	1.  Oak Hill
	2.  Frankfort
	3.  Roane
	4.  Tyler Consolidated
	5.  Oak Glen
	6.  Poca
Oak Hill at least five runs that are over a half second better than anyone else's best.  
Frankfort had the next best Regional run and the 2nd best top time.  Roane is the only other
team to have gone under 54 seconds, and they've done it in each of their last two meets.
Tyler Consolidated edged Oak Glen at the Regional Meet and has a slightly better series.
Poca was faster at their Regional Meet than Tyler Consolidated or Oak Glen and could move up.
Liberty Harrison and Berkeley Springs were ran faster Regional times than Tyler Consolidated 
and Oak Glen, so things could get really shaken up.

4x200 M	1.  Oak Hill
	2.  Roane
	3.  Ritchie
	4.  Summers
	5.  Liberty Harrison
	6.  Independence
Oak Hill isn't quite the dominant favorite in this event that they are for the 4x100, but
they are still the favorite.  Roane has a pair of runs under 1:52, while no one else has
more than one.  Ritchie has three girls back from the team that went 1:48 at the State
Meet last year.  I think they have enough to get by Summers for 3rd, though Summers had a
better Regional run.  Liberty is given the edge for the next spot based on Regional and 
Conference performance.  Independence had the 5th best Regional run in the group.  Grafton, 
Weir, Keyser, and Oak Glen have gone under 1:55 and could threaten for spots.

4x400 M	1.  Oak Hill
	2.  Grafton
	3.  Keyser
	4.  Liberty Harrison
	5.  Weir
	6.  Shady Spring
I think Oak Hill could hit 4:12 or so in this event.  I don't think anyone else can get down
there.  I think Grafton could pull off a 4:15.  Keyser has already been below 4:20, but I
don't know if they can do much more.  Liberty Harrison already has a 4:21, but they probably
also can't do much more.  Weir I think can run a 4:21, and I can see Shady Spring running
a 4:22.  Fully loaded, they could make a run at Keyser, but I think they'll load the 4x800
instead.  Roane and Oak Glen are the biggest threats to move up.  A dark horse in this event
could be PikeView.  Looking at their lineup, I think they could put together a 4:23 unit.

4x800 M	1.  Shady Spring
	2.  Frankfort
	3.  Keyser
	4.  Oak Glen
	5.  Grafton
	6.  Weir
I think Shady Spring moves Chelsea Callaway over to the 4x800, and that should create a very
nice race with Frankfort for the win.  I think both teams can approach 10:00, but I have Shady
Spring being just a little faster.  I put Keyser 3rd because they've already proven they
can run 10:21, and I don't show anyone else being able to get down there.  I have Oak Glen
at 10:22, Grafton at 10:23, and Weir at 10:25.  I think Philip Barbour will be in that area
as well.  These places could very easily get shuffled around.

Shuttle	1.  Weir
	2.  Oak Glen
	3.  Roane
	4.  Tyler Consolidated
	5.  Poca
	6.  Magnolia
Weir is the only team with more than one run under 1:10.  Oak Glen has the best top time,
but Weir did win the Regional meeting.  Roane has been under 1:11 three times, including
their last two meets.  Tyler Consolidated has a pair of runs under 1:11 and two more under
1:12.  Poca has a slightly better top time than Tyler Consolidated.  Magnolia gets the nod
over Keyser by having a top time that is 0.8 seconds faster.  Keyser does have a better
series, though.

L Jump	1.  Marteney Jacobs	Philip Barbour
	2.  Maranda Woodruff	Oak Glen
	3.  Stephanie Mitchell	Roane
	4.  Demi Kirk		Sherman
	5.  Mariah Farley	PikeView
	6.  Sydney Cummings	Sissonville
Jacobs has a pair of 17' jumps and at least five jumps of 16'5 or better.  No one else has
more than one 16' jump.  Woodruff went 16'10 1/4 at her Regional Meet and has a couple
15'6 jumps in her series.  Mitchell has a 16' jump, one of only three in the field, and
at least five 15' jumps, which only she and Jacobs can say.  Kirk hit 15'9 1/4 at her Regional
Meet, and no one else has topped 15'5 all season.  Farley has a pair of 15' jumps as does
Cummings, Roanes Sheree Raines, and Ravenswood's Hannah Gurtis.  Farley and Cummings have
slightly better series than Raines or Gurtis.

H Jump	1.  Sydney Cummings	Sissonville
	2.  Morgan Cottrell	Roane
	3.  Amber Booher	Berkeley Springs
	4.  Christa Bryan	Grafton
	5.  Chelsea Sammons	Ritchie
	6.  Katie Paine		Shady Spring
Cummings is the defending champion and has at least five jumps of 5'4 or more.  Cottrell joins
Cummings as the only ones to have topped 5'6.  Cottrell also has a couple 5'4 jumps.  No one
else has been higher than 5'2.  Booher has five jumps of at least 5'0, including a 5'2, but
the 5'2 came in the first meet.  Bryan has a 5'2 and a couple 5'0 jumps.  Sammons has a 5'0
jump and a 4'11 and three 4'10's.  Paine gets the nod over PikeView's Emilee Comer because
she won the Regional Meeting.  They have identical series.  Frankfort's Brooke Saville also
has a pair of 4'10 jumps.

Shot	1.  Harlie Stotler	Berkeley Springs
	2.  Alea Hipes		Point Pleasant
	3.  Andrea Celorio	Poca
	4.  Rachel McIntire	Lincoln
	5.  Lynsey Casteel	Tyler Consolidated
	6.  Sara Mueller	Magnolia
Stotler's 5th best throw is nearly 2 feet further than anyone else's best.  Her top throw of
over 40' is over 5 feet futher than anyone else's best.  Hipes gets the nod over Celorio for
being a little more consistent.  Celorio's top 2 throws are better than Hipes' top 2 throws,
though.  McIntire is the only other one in the field with more than one throw over 32'.  
Casteelhas three throws over 31'.  Mueller has a pair over 31'.  Point Pleasant's Dakota
Martin, Oak Hill's Brittney Thomas, and Webster Connie Williams have each hit 31' during the
season.

Discus	1.  Brittney Thomas	Oak Hill
	2.  Alanna Pritts	Weir
	3.  Jessica Haugh	Ritchie
	4.  Natalie Bohn	Weir
	5.  Harlie Stotler	Berkeley Springs
	6.  Matraca Shirley	Keyser
Thomas' 5th best throw is over 11 feet further than anyone else's best.  Her top throw of
123'3 is over 18 feet further than anyone else's best.  Pritts is the only other thrower to
have topped 100' this season, and she's done it in her last two meets.  Haugh has three
throws over 95'.  Bohn has three throws over 90'.  Stotler only has the 8th best top throw,
but her two best throws have come in her last two meets.  Shirley has three throws over 90'
and placed 5th last year.  Poca's Erika Maloney, Oak Hill's Quartney Settle, and Poca's
Julia Celorio are the msot likely to steal a spot.  7 throwers have hit between 93'5 and 95'2.

P Vault	1.  Ashli Knotts	Roane
	2.  Savannah Robertson	Oak Hill
	3.  Vicky Bartlett	Ritchie
	4.  Jackie Clark	Tyler Consolidated
	5.  Corri Phillips	Braxton
	6.  Amy Barnes		Liberty Harrison
Knotts has five vaults of at least 9'0, including a 9'6 vault.  No one else has hit 9'0 even
once.  Robertson is the only one remaining to have hit 8'6 twice, and she did one of them
at the Regional Meet.  Bartlett and Clark have identical series.  Bartlett gets the nod for
third because three of her best jumps have come in May, but only two have for Clark.  Clark
did beat Bartlett at the Regional Meet, though.  Phillips is the only other vaulter to have
cleared 7'6.  Barnes has a slightly better series than Ravenswood's Kelsey Flinn.  Webster's
Morgan Miller also has a 7'0 vault to her credit.

High Point Predictions
1.  Marteney Jacobs	Philip Barbour		28
2.  Chelsea Callaway	Shady Spring		26.50
3.  Shakilya Cosby	Oak Hill		25
4.  Kandis Castelli	Weir			21
5.  Demi Kirk		Sherman			19