2009 State Meet Predictions

RunWV Predictions
Class AAA Boys

Class AAA Boys Individual Event Predictions

100 M 1. Jordan Reed Hedgesville
2. Daniel Brown Huntington
3. Shaquille Williams George Washington
4. Raheem Waiters Riverside
5. Russ Kosowski Wheeling Park
6. Christian McGee University
Reed has the best series of times, though three of his top five are hand-times. Brown has a
complete series of FAT runs under 11.20. Williams was excellent at his regional but has only one
other run under 11.55. Waiters has five FAT runs between 11.16 and 11.26. Kosowski had the best
regional time of the bunch. McGee has been consistently fast. Preston's Kevin Eisentrout,
Princeton's Santana Moretto, and University's Chaz Wise are the most likely threats to take one of
the above spots.

200 M 1. Quinton Johnson George Washington
2. Raheem Waiters Riverside
3. Daniel Brown Huntington
4. Jordan Reed Hedgesville
5. Justin Howe Parkersburg
6. Kevin Eisentrout Preston
Johnson ran a pair of times at his regional meet that were faster than anyone else has run this year.
Waiters has the best overall series of times. Brown is the only other runner with 5 runs under
23 seconds. Reed doesn't have the next best series or the next best time, but he does have history
on his side with a 5th place finish last year. Howe is one of only four runners in the field with
three runs under 23 seconds, and two of his best three runs were at the Regional Meet. Eisentrout
has the next best series. South Charleston's Aaron Dobston, Cabell Midland's Cullen Young,
and University's Christian McGee are the top threats to move up.

400 M 1. Khiry Timbers Martinsburg
2. Raheem Waiters Riverside
3. Justin Howe Parkersburg
4. Keith Lemay University
5. Travis Hayden Jefferson
6. Joe Minor John Marshall
This one is tough. The top three have all gone under 50 seconds. Their best times are separated by
only 0.08 seconds. None of them has gone under 50 seconds twice. Timbers is coming off an injury
that kept him out for much of the season. He's likely still getting in shape which should indicate
a higher upside. Waiters has run the event only once and was under 50 seconds. Howe has the best
overall series of the group. Lemay has the next best series and is one of only two others with a
pair of runs under 51. Hayden had the 4th best Regional run and a solid series. Minor is the other
remaining runners with a pair of sub-51 runs. Buckhannon-Upshur's Tommy Boone, Jefferson's Brandon
Hyler, and Bridgeport's Enze Bond are the most likely to move up.

800 M 1. Andy Bailey St. Albans
2. Zach Tennant North Marion
3. Craig Pritt Preston
4. Brandon Doughty Jefferson
5. Jordan O'Dell George Washington
6. Matt Searls St. Albans
Bailey has the best time and the best overall series. Tennant's top time isn't as good as Pritt's,
but he has beaten Pritt in each of their three meetings. Tennant is also the only one with multiple
clockings under 2:00, which he has done every time he has run the event. However, I think he'll
try to make a run at the 1600 record in the morning session, and that could tire him a little.
Pritt has the 2nd best overall time and the 2nd best series of five runs. Pritt will also have
run the 1600 earlier. Doughty has the next best series of times. O'Dell was very strong at the
Gazette Relays and won't have run the 1600 earlier. Searls has a series that is similiar to
Doughty's. Morgantown's Cody Pelliccioni could very easily move up as could Buckhannon-Upshur's
Tommy Boone. 13 of the 16 qualifiers have run under 2:05 with 10 of them having run under 2:04,
so there's a lot of room for movement.

1600 M 1. Zach Tennant North Marion
2. Logan Wojcik Wheeling Park
3. Cody Pelliccioni Morgantown
4. Craig Pritt Preston
5. Trey Beckett Cabell Midland
6. David Caldwell South Charleston
Tennant's top two runs are over 7 seconds better than anyone else's best, and he's done it with
large negative splits. He should be able to even it out and challenge the Meet Record. Wojcik is
has a pair of two runs under 4:30, one of which was a true mile and not a 1600. Pelliccioni has
the 2nd best top time. Pritt has a better series than Pelliccioni, but Pelliccioni beat him at
Gazette's and the Regional. Beckett actually has the 2nd best overall series with four runs under
4:30. Caldwell also has a pair of runs under 4:30. Beckett and Caldwell could move up, but they
probably don't want to leave it to a kick. Jefferson's Brandon Doughty and St. Albans' Caleb
Ellis are the most likely to move up.

3200 M 1. Zach Tennant North Marion
2. David Caldwell South Charleston
3. Cory Hampshire Jefferson
4. Trey Beckett Cabell Midland
5. Caleb Ellis St. Albans
6. Logan Wojcik Wheeling Park
Tennant has the top time, but he has only run the event twice, and only run it hard once. It's
possible that this could be a hindrance as I've seen it happen before. Caldwell has three runs
better than anyone else's best. Hampshire has the 3rd best top time and three runs under 9:50.
Beckett is the only other runner with more than one run under 10:00, and they were both under
9:50. Ellis has a better top time than Beckett and beat him at Gazette's. Wojcik has the next
best series. Greenbrier East's Bradley Dugan Jefferson's Brandon Doughty have both been faster
than Wojcik and could move up.

110 HH 1. Caleb Martin Winfield
2. Josh Coats South Charleston
3. Chris Deaner Hedgesville
4. Cotey Wallace Brooke
5. Cody White Capital
6. Marquis Woods Hedgesville
Martin is the only one in the field with multiple runs under 15 seconds, and he has three of them.
Coats is the only other runner to have gone under 15 seconds, and his top time matches Martin's.
Deaner has the next best series of times, but his top two times are hand-times. Wallace has the
next best series of top-end times. White has a slightly better overall series than Wallace, but
Wallace's top time is substantially faster. Woods has the 5th best top time, but it's a hand-time
that is fairly substantially faster than any of his FAT times, making it questionable. He was,
however, 4th in this event last year. St. Albans' Quincy Bruton, Winfield's Cam Jividen, and East
Fairmont's Dustin Starsick lead a plethora of others who could steal a place. Cody White's top
time is 15.41. Everyone in the top 12 has run 15.59 or better. There's little room for error.

300 IH 1. Caleb Martin Winfield
2. Chris Deaner Hedgesville
3. Corey Mason Jefferson
4. Travis Ellis Wheeling Park
5. Cam Viney Elkins
6. Roland Willis George Washington
Martin is the only one to have been under 40 seconds, and he's done it twice. Deaner has the next
best series and the next best top time. Mason is the only one other than Martin with three runs
under 41 seconds, and he placed in the event last year. Ellis is the only other runner with a pair
of runs under 41. However, he'll have to do his damage from the first heat. Viney has the next
best series of times. Willis had the 4th best Regional run in the field, but has only run the
event twice, meaning he could easily move up or down. Winfield's Cam Jividen, Jefferson's Jason
Brackett, and Nitro's Eric Payne could very easily take spots.

4x100 M 1. Jefferson
2. Hedgesville
3. Wheeling Park
4. George Washington
5. Cabell Midland
6. St. Albans
Hedgesville knocked Jefferson off at the Regional Meet, but Jefferson has a better series of times.
I also think they can slightly improve their unit if healthy. Hedgesville has been under 44 on
three occasions. No one other than these two have been under 44. Wheeling Park has the next best
series of times. A completely healthy George Washington could probably contend with Jefferson
and Hedgesville, but they won't be at full strength. Their Regional performance will have them
running from the first heat, but they won their regional handily and should be able to go fast
enough to get in the top 4. Cabell Midland gets the nod over St. Albans based on the better
regional run. University and Lewis County could make some noise.

4x200 M 1. George Washington
2. Jefferson
3. South Charleston
4. Hedgesville
5. Parkersburg
6. Cabell Midland
George Washington has the top time and the top series. They also had the top regional time. Again,
they won't be at top strength, but they may not have to be. Jefferson is very strong and could win
it. South Charleston had the 2nd fastest regional run. I initially had Hedgesville in 2nd but
had trouble justifying it. They're very much a threat to move up. Parkersburg had the 3rd best
Regional run. Cabell Midland is the only other team to go under 1:32. Wheeling Park, St. Albans,
and Martinsburg look to steal spots.

4x400 M 1. Martinsburg
2. Jefferson
3. Parkersburg
4. St. Albans
5. Cabell Midland
6. Buckhannon-Upshur
Martinsburg has the top time and can probably go faster if pressed. Jefferson was a full three
seconds off Martinsburg at the Regional, but I believe they can make a run at them. I can see
Parkersburg going a little faster, but probably not enough to catch both of the others. St. Albans
can probably go 3:28 or so. Cabell Midland can probably go a little faster. Buckhannon-Upshur
rounds out the list. I have Preston in 7th, but if they were to move Kevin Eisentrout onto this
unit from the 4x200 or one of his individual events, they could go under 3:30. That could move
them into the top 5. A dark horse placer could be Greenbrier East. I could see them going as
low as 3:32.

4x800 M 1. St. Albans
2. Cabell Midland
3. Winfield
4. Wheeling Park
5. Buckhannon-Upshur
6. Bridgeport
St. Albans is clearly the team to beat. They've run 8:08, and I can easily see them hitting 8:05.
If they were really pressed in a meet, there might be a shot at cracking the 8:00 barrier. They
won't be pressed that much. Cabell Midland can probably string together an 8:13 or so. That should
be enough to get 2nd. I think Winfield ran the race of their life to get that 8:16 at the Regional.
I can't see them going any faster. Of course, I would have said there was no way that they could
run 8:16 to beging with. Now it gets really messy. I have five teams that I think can run in the
low 8:20's. Alphabetically, that would be Bridgeport, Buckhannon-Upshur, Morgantown, Preston, and
Wheeling Park. Wheeling Park will have to add Logan Wojcik to the unit to get that 4th spot. I'm
not 100% sure they'll do that since he didn't run it at the Conference or Regional Meets. Bridgeport
just beat Buckhannon-Upshur, but I think Buckhannon-Upshur has the higher upside. Preston has the
great closer in Craig Pritt, and that could get them into one of the spots. Morgantown hasn't really
been close to that time, so I may be overestimating what a couple of their guys can do.

Shuttle 1. Hedgesville
2. Jefferson
3. Winfield
4. East Fairmont
5. St. Albans
6. Cabell Midland
Hedgesville has the best time in the field by over a second with their Regional run. Jefferson is
the only other team to have been under 59 seconds, and they've done it twice. Winfield has been
under 60 seconds three times. They have the next best top time and the next best series. East
Fairmont has the next best series. They and St. Albans have been under 60 seconds twice. No one
remaining in the field has been under 60 seconds. Cabell Midland has the next best time.
Bridgeport has a better series than Midland. Robert C. Byrd is the other most likely threat.

L Jump 1. Dewey McDonald Jefferson
2. Casey Johnson Jefferson
3. Quinton Johnson George Washington
4. David Hammond Martinsburg
5. Anthony Abston Robert C. Byrd
6. Cullen Young Cabell Midland
McDonald has at least five jumps over 21'. Only one other jumper has topped 21'. That jumper is
Casey Johnson, and he's done it four times. Quinton Johnson has topped 20'5 in his last two meets,
both of which took place at the State Meet venue. Hammond has two jumps better than Abston's best.
Abston is the only jumper outside the top two to have five 20' jumps. Young actually has the 4th
best top jump, but he hasn't topped 20' since mid-April. Hedgsville's Michael Walters is the only
other jumper to have topped 20', and he's done it twice.

H Jump 1. Xavier Humphrey Huntington
2. Chris Deaner Hedgesville
3. Marquis Woods Hedgesville
4. Travis Ellis Wheeling Park
5. Jake Stafford Bridgeport
6. Cody Schuler Winfield
Humphrey has to top series with more 6'6 jumps than anyone else and was the only jumper to top 6'6
at his Regional Meet. Deaner is the only jumper to have topped 6'8 and was 3rd last year. Woods
has a 6'6 jump and a 6'4 jump, and the 6'4 jump came at the Regional Meet. Ellis has a pair of
6'6 jumps, but those happened in mid-April. He's only hit 6'2 once in May. Stafford has three
6'2 jumps to his credit. Schuler has a better series than Stafford, but only one of his top 5
jumps came after April 9th. John Marshall's Jeremy Hayes is the only other jumper to have cleared
6'2 during the season.

Shot 1. Cole Bowers Cabell Midland
2. Maurice Newby Hedgesville
3. Charles France Preston
4. Christian Cummings Fairmont Senior
5. Brady McConnell Wheeling Park
6. Gavin Donathan Hurricane
Bowers has only thrown in four meets. He's been over 50' in all of them, and his top throw is
nearly 3 feet further than anyone else has thrown, but it's far and away his best. Newby has
four throws over 50'. France has a better top throw than Newby but has only one other throw
over 50'. Cummings has a 51' throw and the next best series. Donathan has a 50' throw and just
missed the mark at the regional meet. Lewis County's Ethan Wilson has a better top throw than
Donathan, but that's his only throw over 47'. Hurricane's Michael Burdette would be the other
main threat.

Discus 1. Christian Cummings Fairmont Senior
2. Raheem Waiters Riverside
3. Shawn Miller Hedgesville
4. Lee Wells Buckhannon-Upshur
5. Brady McConnell Wheeling Park
6. Voellinger, John John Marshall
Cummings has the top throw and the top series. He's also the only one to have two 150' tosses.
Waiters has easily the next best series and the only other 150' throw in the bunch. He also had
the top Regional throw. Miller is the only other thrower with multiple throws over 140'. Wells
has the next best series. McConnell has the next best series after that. Voellinger has the 4th
best top throw but doesn't have much to back it up. He may have been injured and is just coming
back as I have no performances over 124' in the database for him between 3/27 and 5/1.
Hedgesville's Maurice Newby and Buckhannon-Upshur's Troy Wingler each have throws over 140'.

P Vault 1. Eric Ripley Wheeling Park
2. Jess Frasher University
3. Matthew Cummings Bridgeport
4. Nathan Edwards University
5. David Osborne St. Albans
6. Nathan Lafata Morgantown
Ripley is the only vaulter to top 14'. He's also topped 13'6 three times while no one else
has done it more than once. Frasher has the only other 13'6 vault in the field and has the
next best series with 4 vaults of 13' or more. It gets very tight after that. Cummings is the
only other vaulter with 5 vaults of 12'6. Edwards was one of only three vaulters to top 13'
at the Regional, and he has three other 12'6 vaults. Osborne has a better top vault than Cummings
or Edwards and is one of only three vaulters to top 13' twice. However, both those vaults were
in mid-April. Only one of his 12'3 or better vaults has occurred in May. Lafata has a 13'
vault and a 12'9 vault. His series is a little better than that of Edwards, but Edwards has done
his best vaulting more recently. Jefferson's Aaron Roberts is the only other vaulter with
multiple vaults over 12'6, and he's done it three times, so he could easily factor into the scoring.


High Point Predictions
1.  Raheem Waiters	Riverside		30
2.  Zach Tennant	North Marion		28
3.  Chris Deaner	Hedgesville		24.50
4.  Caleb Martin	Winfield		21.50
5.  Quinton Johnson	George Washington	19.50