2009 State Meet Predictions

RunWV Predictions
Class AA Boys

Class AA Boys Individual Event Predictions

100 M 1. David Wiley Chapmanville
2. Shawn Burns Weir
3. Nate Taylor Tyler Consolidated
4. Derek Burch Oak Glen
5. Jacob Rollo Sherman
6. Matt Wilmer Keyser
Wiley has the best series and the best top time. Three of his top five are hand-times,
though. Burns has the next best series and won the Region I battle. Taylor has been
consistently fast with 5 times between 11.32 and 11.43. Burch has four runs under 11.50.
Rollo has a solid series, though much of it is from early in the season. Wilmer is a
legitimate threat to move up. There are at least five other guys who have legitimate shots
at placing.

200 M 1. Nate Taylor Tyler Consolidated
2. Shawn Burns Weir
3. Matt Wilmer Keyser
4. Cole Starcher Ravenswood
5. Brandon Franklin Liberty Harrison
6. Jacob Rollo Sherman
Taylor is the only one in the field to have multiple runs under 23 seconds. He also has
the best overall series and the best top time. Burns has the next best series and is the
only other one to have gone under 23 seconds. Wilmer has the next best series. Starcher
has a better top time than Wilmer and could move up. Wilmer was faster at the Regional,
though. Franklin has a very strong series that rivals that of Starcher and Wilmer. Wilmer
beat him soundly at the Regional though. Rollo has a pair of runs under 23.50 and had
a strong regional run. Chapmanville's Dylan Wiley and Keyser's Kaison Rohrbaugh are the
most likely to sneak in for a spot.

400 M 1. Derek Burch Oak Glen
2. Cole Starcher Ravenswood
3. Nate Taylor Tyler Consolidated
4. Kaison Rohrbaugh Keyser
5. Michael Richards Grafton
6. Griff Halstead Oak Glen
Burch is the only one in the field to have gone under 50 seconds. Only he and Starcher have
been under 51 seconds, and both have done it twice. Starcher has run the event three times
and has gotten faster each time with his slowest run being 51.31. Taylor has three runs
under 52 seconds and the next fastest Regional run. Rohrbaugh has the next best series.
Richards has a pair of runs under 52. Rohrbaugh and Richards have better top times than
Taylor and could move up. Halstead and Keyser's Taige Redman have the only other runs
under 52 seconds. Sherman's Jacob Rollo is also very much a threat. He ran a low 52
very early in the season and then didn't run the event again until the Regional Meet,
which he won by over a second. He was 4th in the event last year but will have to run
from the first heat.

800 M 1. Nathan Rees Ravenswood
2. Alex Cole Ravenswood
3. Griff Halstead Oak Glen
4. Michael Richards Grafton
5. Lenny Roach Berkeley Springs
6. Skyler McCoy Webster
Rees has the top time in the group and the best series. He has three runs under 2:02, and
no one else has more than one. Cole was right on Rees' heels at the Gazette Relays and
beat him at the Conference Meet. Halstead has the next best top time and placed last year.
Richards' best time is only slightly slower than Halstead's. He is the only one other than
Rees to have three runs under 2:03. Roach ran a 2:03 in the first meet of the season but
hasn't beaten that yet. He was third in the event last year. McCoy has a 2:02 run to his
credit, but his 2nd best run is only 2:09. Lincoln's Brandon Foresha is the only other
runner to have gone under 2:05, and he's been under 2:04.

1600 M 1. Nathan Rees Ravenswood
2. Lenny Roach Berkeley Springs
3. Skyler Mccoy Webster
4. Alex Cole Ravenswood
5. Chase Nelson Scott
6. Brent Roark PikeView
Rees has the best time in the group and three runs faster than anyone else's best. Roach
has the 2nd best time and was 2nd in the event last year. McCoy has the third best time
but hasn't challenged himself since mid-April. Cole has a better series than McCoy.
Nelson is the only one other than Rees to have gone under 4:40 more than once. Roark
beat Nelson at the Gazette Relays, but that run is his only trip under 4:50. Philip
Barbour's Riley Freeman and Frankfort's Johnny Macklen, Roane's Randy Price, and PikeView's
Jordan Weitzel have each run under 4:40.

3200 M 1. Nathan Rees Ravenswood
2. Lenny Roach Berkeley Springs
3. Skyler McCoy Webster
4. Riley Freeman Philip Barbour
5. John King Philip Barbour
6. Ronald Read Weir
Rees and Roach are the only ones to have been under 10:00. Rees has been under 10:00 four
times and Roach just once. Rees beat Roach at the Gazette Relays, but by less than two
seconds. McCoy's best time is just 10:19, and that was on March 27th. He's only 12 seconds
off the 3rd best time in the group, though, and I'm afraid not to pick him. Freeman is
the only one in the field outside the top two to have gone under 10:10, and he's done it
twice. King has a pair of runs under 10:15 as does Read. Roane's Randy Price is the only
other runner to have gone under 10:20.

110 HH 1. Cullen Grover Tyler Consolidated
2. Jeremy Green Keyser
3. Marty Zangus Weir
4. Tommy Okes Shady Spring
5. Josh Szpyrka Oak Glen
6. Derek Mitchell Point Pleasant
Grover is the only one in the field to have gone under 15 seconds. Green has a better
overall series than Grover, but his top three times are hand-times. Zangus and Okes
have the same top time, but Zangus has a better overall series. Szpyrka is the only other
one in the field to have gone under 16 seconds, and he's done it four times. Mitchell
has come on late in the season and was just 0.02 behind Szpyrka at their Regional Meet.
Point Pleasant's Travis Bays has a better series than Mitchell and could move up.
Frankfort's Josh Howser and Sherman's Jeffrey Cooper have both run under 16.3. No one
else in the field has run under 16.75.

300 IH 1. Cullen Grover Tyler Consolidated
2. Josh Szpyrka Oak Glen
3. Tommy Okes Shady Spring
4. Tristan Reneau Grafton
5. John King Philip Barbour
6. Jon Perry Ritchie
Grover is the only one in the field to have gone under 40 seconds and is the only one to
have gone under 41 seconds twice. He's been a little up and down during the season with
some meets going over 43 seconds. Szpyrka has five runs of 41.50 or better, which no one
else in the field can claim. Reneau, King, and Okes have been 41.70 or better twice.
Okes sports a better overall series than the other two. Reneau beat King at both the
Conference and Regional Meet, though by very slim margins both times. King may be the one
that has the most room for improvement though as he has only recently started running the
event. Perry has four runs under 42 seconds but hasn't been as fast of the others.
Keyser's Wesley Washington was just over 42 seconds at the Regional Meet. That's the only
time I have on record for him, so he could be a legitimate threat to move into a placing
position.

4x100 M 1. Oak Glen
2. Keyser
3. Chapmanville
4. Tyler Consolidated
5. Point Pleasant
6. Herbert Hoover
Oak Glen and Keyser is likely a two team race. Oak Glen has the best time. Keyser was faster
at its Regional. Oak Glen has a slightly better series, so they get the edge. Chapmanville
is very solid and has the 3rd best top time. Tyler Consolidated could move Cullen Grover
onto this unit and get a little faster. I don't know if he makes enough of a difference to
catch Chapmanville, though. Point Pleasant had an excellent Regional run. Herbert Hoover
also looked very good at their Regional. Shady Spring is a bit of a wildcard in this race.
They have run in the mid-45's which would put them between Chapmanville and Tyler Consolidated.
However, they were shorthanded at the Regional Meet and only had the 15th best qualifying time.
I don't know if the missing people will be back on the unit for the State Meet or not. PikeView
and Ravenswood are the others most likely to snare a spot.

4x200 M 1. Oak Glen
2. Keyser
3. Ritchie
4. Ravenswood
5. Roane
6. Poca
This should be another Oak Glen/Keyser showdown. The two ran within 0.04 of each other's
at their Regional Meet. Oak Glen is the only team to have gone under 1:31. They've gone
under 1:32 three times. Keyser has only gone under 1:32 once. The pair is over 3 seconds
ahead of everyone else. Ritchie is the only other team to have been under 1:35. Ravenswood
only ran 1:41 at their Regional, but the same unit ran under 1:36 at their Conference Meet,
so I assume a botched handoff came into play. They'll have to make their way out of the
first heat. Roane has gone under 1:37 in its last two meets. Poca gets the nod for 6th
based on Regional performance. Shady Spring is again a wildcard. They have run a time
that would put them between Ritchie and Ravenswood but, as in the 4x100, they were short-handed
at the Regional, and I don't know if those guys will be back. Tyler Consolidated is another
interesting possibility. Cullen Grover has an open event and could be placed here. If they
would also move Nate Taylor over from the 4x100 to the 4x200, they could very much be in
the hunt for 3rd. PikeView could also be a factor.

4x400 M 1. Ravenswood
2. Keyser
3. Philip Barbour
4. Grafton
5. Oak Glen
6. Ritchie
Ravenswood has been under 3:33 twice, and I think they could conceivably go 3:26. Keyser is
the only other team to have been under 3:35, and I think they have the potential to go 3:28.
The next three are really tight. I can see them all going in the 3:31-3:32 range. Philip
Barbour has been the fastest of the three, so I'm giving them the edge, though I think the
upward potential of the other two may be higher. Ritchie is given the nod for 6th. I think
they can go 3:37. Berkeley Springs and Tyler Consolidated are th most likely to get into
the mix. Tyler Consolidated could load this one up and be in contention for a top 3. Oak
Glen could conceivably sub Derek Burch into their lineup, taking him out of the 4x200. They'd
probably only lose 2 points in the 4x200, and Burch might put them in contention with Keyser.

4x800 M 1. Ravenswood
2. Philip Barbour
3. Keyser
4. Oak Glen
5. Grafton
6. Magnolia
Can Ravenswood win this without Nathan Rees. I think they can. It looks to me like they can
go in the low 8:20's without him. Keyser, Philip Barbour, and Oak Glen are very similar in
what I think they cand do. It looks like upper 8:20's for each of them. I'm giving Philip
Barbour the edge over Keyser mostly because they beat them in the Region. Keyser is the only
team other than Ravenswood to have gone under 8:30, though. Oak Glen could get ahead of
both of them. I think Grafton can approach 8:30. I think Magnolia will have enough to hold
off Ritchie. Berkeley Springs could be a factor if they move Lenny Roach onto this unit
from the 4x400. That could put them in the 8:30 range.

Shuttle 1. Keyser
2. Tyler Consolidated
3. Point Pleasant
4. Oak Glen
5. Shady Spring
6. Grafton
Keyser has at least five runs better than anyone else's best. Their top time is over 1.4
seconds ahead of anyone else. Tyler Consolidated is the only other team to have been under
1:00. Point Pleasant had a strong Regional run. Oak Glen has a better series than Point
Pleasant and could easily move up. Shady Spring faces the same problem it did in the 4x100
and 4x200. This time, though, they should still be able to place "as is." If they have
everyone back, they're a top 3 team. Grafton has the next best top time and the next best
series. Frankfort did beat them at the Regional Meet, though. Greenbrier West has also
been under 1:04.

L Jump 1. Matt Ritchie Oak Glen
2. Andrew Willis Ravenswood
3. Steven Perry Point Pleasant
4. Jacob Rollo Sherman
5. Christopher Blankenship Point Pleasant
6. Derek Mitchell Point Pleasant
Ritchie has the only 21' jump in the group. He has four jumps better than anyone else's
best. Willis has been more consistent than Perry, though Perry has a better top jump and
won the Regional matchup. These are the only three to have hit 20'. Rollo hit a good one
at the State Meet venue. Blankenship actually has a better series than Perry. Mitchell
beat Willis and Blankenship at the Regional Meet. There's not a lot to separate the jumpers
this year. 13 of the 18 jumpers have hit 19'. Only 8 of them have hit the mark twice.
Only 4 of them have hit it three times.

H Jump 1. Andrew Willis Ravenswood
2. Matt Ritchie Oak Glen
3. Tyler Franklin James Monroe
4. Timmy Miller Webster
5. Daniel Humphreys Roane
6. Kyle Fields Oak Glen
Willis and Ritchie have identical series with two 6'4 jumps, a 6'2 jump, and a pair of 6'0
jumps. However, Willis' 6'4 jumps have come at his last two meets. Ritchie's came in April.
Franklin has a 6'3 and a pair of 6'2 jumps. Miller has a 6'2 and a pair of 6'0 jumps and
placed last year. Humphreys hit 6'2 at his Regional, but has no other 6'0 jumps to go with
it. Field has a 6'1 and a 6'0 jump, but only went 5'10 at his regional. Frankfort's
Joshua Howser is the only other jumper to have cleared 6'0 this season. He placed last year
but only went 5'8 at his Regional.

Shot 1. Mark Britton Ritchie
2. Nicco Mills Oak Glen
3. Tyler Grant Point Pleasant
4. Ellis Howard Webster
5. Parker Osborne Lincoln
6. Cody Durst Point Pleasant
Britton is the only thrower with multiple throws over 46'. He's one of only two in the field
with five 44' throws. Mills is the other with five 44' throws. He hasn't hit 46' though,
and Britton beat him by over two feet at the Regional. Grant's series is nearly identical
to Mills', and he placed 3rd last year. He did also beat Mills at the Regional, so he
could easily take the spot. Howard has the best top throw in the field by nearly 3 feet, but
that effort was over 4 feet further than his 2nd best toss. He only has three throws over
43'. Osborne is the only other thrower with a pair of 44' throws. He has a couple 43'
throws to go with them. Durst has a better top throw than Osborne, but his 2nd best throw
is only 42'. Scott's Ryan Price also has a better top throw than Osborne, but his series
isn't as good. No one else has topped 43'.

Discus 1. Mark Britton Ritchie
2. Matt Riggs Magnolia
3. Tyler Grant Point Pleasant
4. Tylor Faulkiner Philip Barbour
5. Nicco Mills Oak Glen
6. Chris May Independence
Britton is far and away the favorite. He has at least 5 throws that are over 13 feet further
than anyone else's best. Riggs is the only other thrower with multiple throws over 140'. He
has three. Grant has a better top throw than Riggs, but the overall series goes to Riggs
with ease. Faulkiner has a better series than Mills, but Mills has a better top throw.
May is the only other thrower to top 135'. No one else has thrown further than 128'.

P Vault 1. Cody Masters Ritchie
2. Jordan Smith Tyler Consolidated
3. Jerod Searls Point Pleasant
4. Derek Davis Roane
5. Tristan Reneau Grafton
6. Matt Beadenkopf Berkeley Springs
Masters has a 12'6 vault and a pair of 12' vaults, and a pair of 11'6 vaults in his series.
No one else has even cleared 11'6 twice. Smith is the other vaulter to have cleared 11'6,
and he has a couple 11'0 vaults to go along with it. Searls has a pair of 11'0 vaults and
a 10'8. Davis has a couple 11'0 vaults and three 10'6 vaults. Reneau has and 11'0 vault
and a couple 10'6 vaults. Beadenkopf is the only other vaulter with more than one 10'0.
Oak Hill's Sam Young and Webster Chad Brinson each have a 10'6 vault, which Beadenkopf does
not have. If the WVSSAC does its normal 10'0 starting height, we may not have six placers.


High Point Predictions
1.  Nathan Rees         Ravenswood              32.50
2.  Nate Taylor		Tyler Consolidated	23
3.  Cullen Grover	Tyler Consolidated	22
4.  Mark Britton	Ritchie			20
5.  Derek Burch		Oak Glen		19