2008 State Meet Predictions

RunWV Predictions
Class AA Girls

Class AA Girls Individual Event Predictions

Individual Predictions
100 M 1. Deja Jones Oak Hill
2. Emily Stewart Winfield
3. Donnie Kirk Sherman
4. Mallory Nowlin Point Pleasant
5. Demi Kirk Sherman
6. Cheri Bunner Ritchie
Jones has the best time in the group and actually has five runs better than anyone else's
best. Stewart has four runs under 13 seconds and the second best time in the field.
Donnie Kirk has three runs under 13 seconds and the next best overall series. Nowlin has a
slightly better top time than Kirk placed 3rd in the event last year. Demi Kirk has a pair
of sub-13 runs and placed last year. Bunner doesn't have the next best time or the next
best series, but she seems to be able to find that extra gear when it really matters, as
evidenced by her 4th place finish last year. Winfield's Kelsey Spang and Roane's Morgan
Cottrell are the most likely to sneak in for a place.

200 M 1. Emily Stewart Winfield
2. Shakilya Cosby Oak Hill
3. Donnie Kirk Sherman
4. Mallory Nowlin Point Pleasant
5. Deja Jones Oak Hill
6. Demi Kirk Sherman
Stewart has the only sub-26 clocking in the field and easily has the best series. Cosby
has the best remaining series. Donnie Kirk and Nowlin are very close, but Kirk has a
slightly better series and did place 2nd in the event last year. Nowlin does have the
2nd best top time in the field, so it could be easy for her to move up. Jones has five
runs under 27 seconds and the next best top time. Demi Kirk has the next best series.
Again, look for Winfield's Kelsey Spanger to be in the hunt, along with Bluefield's
Sarah Hudak, Winfield's Breanna Shantie, and Ritchie's Cassie Bunner, who placed last
year.

400 M 1. Emily Stewart Winfield
2. Shakilya Cosby Oak Hill
3. Cassie Bunner Ritchie
4. Hailee Temple Oak Glen
5. Mallory Nowlin Point Pleasant
6. Emily Daly Winfield
Stewart has the best series with at least five runs under 60 seconds. Cosby has the best
top time and beat Stewart at the Gazette Relays, so she could take the title. Bunner is
given the edge over Temple due to the narrow regional victory and last year's third place
finish. Historically, she performs very well at Charleston. Temple actually has the 2nd
best series overall with three runs under 60 seconds and all five of her top runs at 60.3
or better. Nowlin has gone under 60 seconds and has a slightly better series than Daly.
Daly is the only other runner to have gone under 60 seconds. No one else has run under 61
seconds, and only Sherman's Demi Kirk has run under 62.

800 M 1. Katelyn Hunt Grafton
2. Holly Rooper Winfield
3. Annah Cashdollar Oak Glen
4. Rachel Ashley Winfield
5. Neaire Miller Oak Hill
6. Crystal Moreland Frankfort
Hunt has the best time in the group by 1.8 seconds and is one of only two in the field to
have gone under 2:30 twice. Plus, she finished 3rd in the event last year. Rooper is
the other competitor to have gone under 2:30 twice, and she finished 4th last year.
Cashdollar has a slightly better series than Ashley, but Ashley has the better top time.
Miller has more runs under 2:31 than anyone in the field with her top five times all being
between 2:29.9 and 230.9. She's a definite threat to move up. Moreland only has two times
to her credit, but one of them was a 2:29. There are three others in the field who have
run 2:30 and three more who have run 2:31. I feel like there are 13 girls who have very
legitimate chances to place. Hunt, Rooper, and Miller will have to hope the morning
session's 1600 won't hurt them any.

1600 M 1. Sarah McCauley Philip Barbour
2. Katelyn Hunt Grafton
3. Chelsea Callaway Shady Spring
4. Megan Truelove Winfield
5. Neaire Miller Oak Hill
6. Holly Rooper Winfield
This should be a very interesting race. McCauley is the only one in the field to have
gone under 5:30, and she's done it three times and actually has four times better than
anyone else's best. However, each of the sub 5:30's is a mid-5:29, so it's not like she's
crushing the field. Hunt was the 4th place finisher a year ago and did just beat McCauley
at the regional meet. Callaway and Truelove were just nipped at the line by McCauley at
the Gazette Relays as all three finished within 0.36 seconds of each other. McCauley
sneaked past both in the final meters. Any of these front four winning would be no surprise
at all. Miller is the only other one in the field to have more than one run under 5:40,
and she has three. Rooper has the next best time and the next best series. There are
five other girls who have run under 5:45 with a definite threat in that group being
Frankfort's Rebekah McBride who placed 5th last year in 5:27.

3200 M 1. Megan Truelove Winfield
2. Amber Adkins Philip Barbour
3. Chanel Alexander Grafton
4. Jessica Roberts Roane
5. Chelsea Callaway Shady Spring
6. Alex Hauser Oak Glen
Truelove has the best time in the group by 8 seconds and easily the best series. Her 5th
best time is better than anyone else's 3rd. Adkins is the only other runner in the field
with more than one run under 12:15. Alexander has really stepped forward late in the
season, and as the State Cross Country Meet showed, she can perform on the big stage. It
wouldn't be a shock to see her win the race. Roberts has the next best series and placed
fourth last year. She generally has a very strong finish, so if she's still with the
leaders with 200 meters to go, anything could happen. Callaway doesn't have the next
best time or the next best series. In fact, neither of those would put her in the front
six. I just happen to think she's the best of three very good Shady Spring 3200 runners,
but she hasn't gotten to run it hard very often this year. Hauser has a better series
than the other two Shady Spring runners, though they both have a better top time. The
other threats in this race will be Shady's Teddi Serna and Desiree Roseberry, and Grafton's
Molly Summers.

100 HH 1. Megan Mock Berkeley Springs
2. Morganne Bennett Winfield
3. Kandis Castelli Weir
4. Alexandra Bobalik Weir
5. Joran Meadows Poca
6. Kylea DeMarco Lincoln
Mock has the best top time and the best series. She also beat Bennett head-to-head at the
Gazette Relays. Bennett is the only other competitor in the field with more than one run
under 16 seconds, and she has at least five of them. This should be a two-person race.
Castelli has a slightly better series than teammate Bobalik, though they're close enough
that it could go either way. Meadows has the next best series with all five of her best
runs being under 16.5 seconds. DeMarco has a sub-16 clocking, which Meadows doesn't, but
it came on March 25th, and she hasn't been within a half second of it since. There are
four others who have very serious shots at placing with the primary threat being Lincoln's
Erica Wilkins.

300 LH 1. Meghan Mock Berkeley Springs
2. Morganne Bennett Winfield
3. Cassie Bunner Ritchie
4. Ashli Knotts Roane
5. Shanna Akers Lincoln
6. Kandis Castelli Weir
Mock has the best top time, and the best series. Oh yeah...and she holds the State Record.
Bennett, however, acutally had Mock beat at the Gazette Relays before somewhat balking at
the final hurdle (if my memory serves me correctly). These two finished 1-2 in last year's
State Meet as well. Bunner is new to the event this year, but has run under 48 seconds
in her last two races and has been under 50 seconds 5 times. She will have run the 400
earlier, and that could prove a hindrance to her in this event. Knotts has a pair of runs
under 48 seconds and four of them under 49. She has finished her last two races 0.06 and
0.03 behind Bunner, so if that 400 bothers Bunner in the least, Knotts moves up. Akers
has the next best series with three runs under 49 seconds and five under 50. Castelli
has four runs under 50, and her top two times have been in her last two meets. Poca's
Jordan Meadows and Winfield's Valerie Kirk are the only other runners in the field to
have been under 50 seconds.

4x100 M 1. Winfield
2. Point Pleasant
3. Lincoln
4. Oak Glen
5. Weir
6. Frankfort
Winfield has three runs better than anyone else's best. Their depth just can't be matched.
Point Pleasant has two runs that are over a half second better than anyone else's best.
Lincoln is very solid with three runs under 53. Oak Glen is the only other team to have
been under 53 seconds. Weir looks pretty solidly in 5th. Frankfort gets a slight nod
over Tyler Consolidated for 6th. If Ritchie were to move Cassie Bunner into this event,
they could move into a placing spot.

4x200 M 1. Winfield
2. Oak Hill
3. Weir
4. Ritchie
5. Lincoln
6. Frankfort
Winfield is over 2 seconds ahead of the field. They have four runs better than anyone
else's best. Their depth just can't be matched. Oak Hill is the only other team to have
gone under 1:50, though their Regional run just about left them out of the fast heat.
Weir and Ritchie are very tight. Weir has a better series and edged Ritchie by 0.03 at
their regional. Lincoln has a better series than either Weir or Ritchie, but their top
time and regional time were not as good. Frankfort is the only other team to have run
under 1:51.

4x400 M 1. Winfield
2. Oak Glen
3. Grafton
4. Frankfort
5. Oak Hill
6. Keyser
Winfield has the top time in the field by about 2.5 seconds, and I think they can run
about 4:06 if they have to. Their depth...well...you know. Oak Glen can make them run,
though. I think Oak Glen can turn a 4:07. I think Grafton can drop a 4:15. Frankfort
did beat Grafton at the regional, so they could certainly do the same again. I think Oak
Hill can put together a group that can run under 4:18, but they'll have to do their
work from the first heat, which adds a degree of difficulty. Keyser was right on Grafton's
heels at the regional. I think Shady Spring is a definite threat. I can see them running
4:20. Weir is a threat. Ritchie could move Cassie Bunner out of the 200 and onto this
relay and conceivably get as high as 3rd.

4x800 M 1. Winfield
2. Grafton
3. Shady Spring
4. Oak Glen
5. Philip Barbour
6. Frankfort
I know. Winfield hasn't run under 10:30 all season. But they can put a unit together that
can run 10:05 or better. I think Grafton can hit 10:06 or so. Shady can go around 10:07.
I can see Oak Glen running 10:09. It wouldn't be a surprise for any of these teams to win
it. Philip Barbour can go under 10:20. Frankfort's best time is only 10:44, but I think
they can put a group together that can run 10:22. Point Pleasant is very much a threat.
They might, health depending, be able to go as high as 4th.

Shuttle 1. Lincoln
2. Winfield
3. Point Pleasant
4. Weir
5. Liberty Harrison
6. Oak Glen
Lincoln hadn't run their A-unit shuttle team since early April due to various injuries until
the regional meet. All they did was run a time over a second better than anyone else. It's
probably their race to win. Winfield is probably the only team that can come close to them.
Point Pleasant has the next best top time and had a strong regional showing. Weir has
a slightly better series than Liberty Harrison, though Liberty has a better top time by 0.01
and had a better regional showing by 0.08. Oak Glen has the 4th best top time in the field,
but their regional showing has them running in the 2nd of four heats where they likely won't
get pushed the way they need to be. Sissonville, Ritchie, and Shady Spring have been
under 1:12 and will be hoping someone trips up.

L Jump 1. Meghan Mock Berkeley Springs
2. Marteney Jacobs Philip Barbour
3. Maranda Woodruff Oak Glen
4. Madison Kelley Philip Barbour
5. Stephanie Mitchell Roane
6. Morgan Bryant Independence
Mock has five jumps of 17' while no one else has more than one. She's also the defending
champion. Jacobs has the other 17' jump and a pair of 16' jumps to go along with it, and
she was 2nd last year. Woodruff has a pair of 16' jumps, and three more of 15'5 or better.
Kelley also have a pair of 16' jumps and three more of 15'5 or better. Mitchell has five
jumps of 15'4 or better, with the top four being at least 15'7. Bryant has five jumps
between 15'8 and 15'5 and she placed last year. Sissonville's Sydney Cummings and Poca's
Jordan Meadows are also substantial threats to place.

H Jump 1. Sydney Cummings Sissonville
2. Meghan Mock Berkeley Springs
3. Morgan Cottrell Roane
4. Courtney Stanley Weir
5. Chelsea Sammons Ritchie
6. Amber Booher Berkeley Springs
Cummings has the only jump higher than 5'6 in the field with her 5'7 leap. She also has
three other 5'6 clearances and a 5'5. Mock has a pair of 5'6 jumps and three 5'2's, but
she is the defending champion with a 5'8 record setting jump last year, so it would be no
surprise if she were to win it. Cottrell has a 5'5, a 5'3, and three 5'2's and placed
3rd last year. Stanley has a 5'2, a 5'1 and three 5'0 jumps and was 4th last year.
Sammons has a pair of 5'1's and three 5'0 jumps. Booher has five 5'0 jumps and placed
last year. No one else has cleared 5'0 this season.

Shot 1. Alea Hipes Point Pleasant
2. Rojet Lowe Logan
3. Andrea Celorio Poca
4. Kylie Emfinger Oak Glen
5. Ally Riley Lincoln
6. Heather Sheme Grafton
Hipes has the best throw of the group by over a foot, and it occurred at her regional meet.
Her 5th best throw is better than anyone else's 2nd best. Lowe is the only other thrower
with more than one 34' toss and has the 2nd best series. Celorio has the only other
36' throw (other than Hipes' 37'10) in the group, but that was a season best by 3'.
Emfinger has the 3rd best overall series with four throws over 33'. Riley hit 35' at her
regional, but has no other throws over 33'. Shemes has the next best series, slightly
better than Keyser's Lindsay Broadwater. Berkeley Springs' Katie Whittington must also
be viewed as a threat as she finished 2nd in the event last year.

Discus 1. Brittney Thomas Oak Hill
2. Katie Woofter Oak Glen
3. Kelsey McCoy Berkeley Springs
4. Quartney Settle Oak Hill
5. Alanna Pritts Weir
6. Heather Sheme Grafton
Thomas has the best series of throws in the field with her five best all being at least
108'. Woofter has a better top throw than Thomas, but Thomas has the edge on throws two
through five. Given Woofter's 115' regional toss, though, it would not be a surprise for
her to win. McCoy is the only other one in the field with more than one throw over 100',
and she has three, with two of them being over 105'. Settle has a slightly better top
end series than Pritts, though Pritts has a slightly better overall series. Sheme hasn't
hit 100' but has hit 99' twice and could end up in front of both as she placed 3rd last
year. Magnolia's Renee Shepherd has the only other 100' throw in the field

P Vault 1. Kellie Sealover Ritchie
2. Ashli Knotts Roane
3. Adriann Gaylor Winfield
4. Jessica Schwaner Winfield
5. Alyssa Palmer Ravenswood
6. Franky Sacco Winfield
Sealover is the top vaulter in the state regardless of class. She'll be setting her sites
on Maggie Tincher's State Record of 11'. Sealover vaulter 11'1 at the LKC Conference Meet.
She also has three other vaults higher than 10'. Knotts is the only other vaulter higher
than 8'6, and she has a 9'3 and three 9'0 vaults. Gaylor has an 8'6, an 8'1, and a pair of
8'0 vualts. Schwaner has an 8'6 and an 8'3. Palmer has an 8'6 and four 8'0 vaults.
Sacco has an 8'1 and an 8'0 vault. No one else has been higher than 7'6, and there's only
one more in the field that has even hit that.


High Point Predictions
1.  Meghan Mock		Berkeley Springs	38
2.  Emily Stewart	Winfield		30.50
3.  Katelyn Hunt	Grafton			21.50
4.  Morganne Bennett	Winfield		20.50
5.  Shakilya Cosby	Oak Hill		18.50