Class AAA Girls Individual Event Predictions

Individual Predictions

100 M	1.  Brittany Carr	Jefferson
	2.  Marissa Wright	Buckhannon-Upshur
	3.  Valerie Jasper	Fairmont Senior
	4.  Nicole Hill		South Charleston
	5.  Alaina Pletcher	Musselman
	6.  Chana Traugh	Parkersburg South
Carr has the best top-end series and the best top time.  Wright has the most sub-13 runs 
in the field.  Jasper only has the 7th best top time, but she was in a similar position
last year when she pulled off a 2nd place.  She has always performed above and beyond at
the State Meet.  Hill has three runs under 13 seconds.  Pletcher has a pair of sub-13's
and all five of her best runs have happened at the end of the season.  Traugh has a couple
sub-13 runs, but they're both hand-times.  However, she did place last year, so I'm dropping
her into this spot.  Hampshire's Daytona Maher, Nicholas' Amber Adkins, and Wheeling Park's
Dayshala Bell will contend for spots.

200 M	1.  Chelsea Carrier	Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Alaina Pletcher	Musselman
	3.  Amber Adkins	Nicholas
	4.  Marissa Wright	Buckhannon-Upshur
	5.  Nicole Hill		South Charleston
	6.  Bianca Armstrong	Jefferson
Carrier is a distinct favorite with five times better than anyone else's best.  Pletcher
is coming on late in the season.  Adkins has a slightly better overall series than Pletcher.
Wright has the next best series with five runs under 27 seconds.  Hill has the next best
series with three runs under 27 seconds.  Armstrong doesn't have the next best series, but
as a fourth place finisher from a year ago, I had to put her in there.  She could score a
top three.  Hampshire's Daytona Maher, Buckhannon-Upshur's Ashley White, and Morgantown's
Mandy Lundstrom could take placing spots.

400 M	1.  Josie Crouch	Hurricane
	2.  Danielle Winningham	Cabell Midland
	3.  Alaina Pletcher	Musselman
	4.  Jennifer Cooperrider Nitro
	5.  Julie Young		John Marshall
	6.  Bianca Armstrong	Jefferson
Crouch has the best top time and has won two recent head-to-head meetings with Winningham.
This one could go either way, though.  Pletcher has three runs under 1:01 and the speed
to be a threat to the front two.  Cooperrider has a pair of runs under 1:01 and always seems
to be in the mix in Charleston.  Young has a better top time than Cooperrider and could move
up.  Armstrong has the next best time and the next best series and was a placer last year.
Morgantown's Cari Shaffer (placed last year) and Martinsburg's Shaniece Nunn are the most
likely to break up that above group.

800 M	1.  Kaylyn Christopher	Preston
	2.  Amber Riley		University
	3.  Monica Chase	Morgantown
	4.  Jennifer Cooperrider Nitro
	5.  Josie Crouch	Hurricane
	6.  Courtney Yaeger	Wheeling Park
Christopher has run faster than the existing State Record, her top time is over 2 seconds
faster than anyone else.  She has five runs under 2:19.  Riley has four runs under 2:19
and the speed to be a threat to Christopher.  Chase has the only other run under 2:20, and
her top time is over 2 seconds ahead of everyone else.  Cooperrider has a pair of runs
under 2:23 and finished 4th a year ago.  Crouch has a 2:23 run to her credit and has the
footspeed to contend for a top three finish.  Yaeger has a better top time than Crouch.
Preston's Jordan Hamric, Ripley's Chelsea Knotts, and North Marion's Cassie Menas have all
run under 2:25.

1600 M	1.  Kaylyn Christopher	Preston
	2.  Amber Riley		University
	3.  Jordan Hamric	Preston
	4.  Courtney Yaeger	Wheeling Park
	5.  Ari Kasprowicz	Preston
	6.  Ahna Lewis		Morgantown
Christopher has a 4:54 under her belt already.  That would crush her existing State Record
of 5:00.18.  She'll have to hold off Riley, though, who has also gone under 5:00 for a
1600 equivalent.  Hamric looked outstanding under this format at the Gazette Relays.  Yeager
has a couple runs of 5:15 or better.  Kasprowicz actually has a better series than either
Hamric or Yaeger with three runs under 5:20.  Lewis has the next best series.  University's
Hallie Portner is the only other runner to have gone under 5:20 and has a better top time
than Lewis and beat Kasprowicz at the Regional.

3200 M	1.  Jordan Hamric	Preston
	2.  Ashley Teets	Preston
	3.  Hallie Portner	University
	4.  Emma Berry		Morgantown
	5.  Ari Kasprowicz	Preston
	6.  Brooke Boening	Jefferson
As a spectator, I really hate that the two fastest 3200 meter runners in State history both
skipped out on this event.  I understand the logic of both (at least the logic I perceive),
but daggone it, I still don't like it.  Hamric was awesome at the Gazette Relays.  Teets 
has a pair of runs under 11:30 and three more under 11:35.  Portner has one run under 11:30
and another under 11:35.  Berry and Kasprowicz have also gone under 11:30, but Berry has a
slightly better series.  Boening has a pair of runs under 11:40 and another under 11:45.
Hurricane's Alex Dent and Cabell Midland's Alicia Thomas have both been under 11:45 and 
could get into the mix.  Last year, 2nd through 5th finished within 2 seconds of each other.
We could have a similarly tight race this year.  

100 HH	1.  Chelsea Carrier	Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Laquita Wilburn	Huntington
	3.  Kathy Dent		Parkersburg
	4.  Sarah Voeglin	Wheeling Park
	5.  Kelsey Watkins	Parkersburg South
	6.  Miranda Echard	Parkersburg South
Carrier has five runs under 15 seconds, while no one else has been under 15.4.  Carrier's
best time would set a Meet Record.  Wilburn threw a scare into Kristen Loughry last year
and could do the same to Carrier this year.  Dent is the only other runner in the field
with more than one run under 16 seconds.  Voeglin has the next best series.  Watkins
and Echard have each run under 16 seconds.  Hurricane's Erica Leslie is the most likely
to crack the lineup and was a finalist last year.

300 LH	1.  Chelsea Carrier	Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Samantha Jendras	Hampshire
	3.  Julie Young		John Marshall
	4.  Kathy Dent		Parkersburg
	5.  Jeanne Jendras	Hampshire
	6.  Cassie Bodkin	Elkins
Carrier is the State Record holder and has three runs faster than anyone else's best.
S. Jendras has four runs under 48 seconds.  Young is the only onther one in the field to 
have gone under 48 seconds, and she has the next best series.  Dent has three runs under 
49 seconds and was a 4th place finisher a year ago.  J. Jendras actually has a better top
time and a better series than Dent.  Bodkins has the next best series with four runs under
50 seconds.  Cabell Midland's Ellen Sparks could factor in as she has a pair of runs under
50 seconds and was a place last year.

4x100 M	1.  Jefferson
	2.  Wheeling Park
	3.  Morgantown
	4.  Musselman
	5.  Huntington
	6.  Martinsburg
Jefferson has the top time and has three runs under 51 seconds.  Wheeling Park easily
has the 2nd best time and a pair of runs under 51 seconds.  Morgantown has the third best
time and the third best series overall.  Musselman has the next best series.  Huntington
and Martinsburg are pretty close.  They may both be able to make a move to improve their
unit, which may be possible with Hampshire as well.  Parkersburg may be a threat as well.

4x200 M	1.  Huntington
	2.  Wheeling Park
	3.  Jefferson
	4.  Morgantown
	5.  Parkersburg
	6.  Capital
Huntington has the only sub 1:49 of the bunch.  Actually, Buckhannon-Upshur has been there,
but that was with Chelsea Carrier on there.  Four other teams have been under 1:50.  Wheeling
Park has the 2nd fast remaining time, but I think they can add Dayshala Bell to this unit
to move them into the second spot.  Jefferson should hold third.  Morgantown and Parkersburg
will battle for fourth.  Capital gets the nod over Martinsburg and Woodrow Wilson for the
final spot.

4x400 M	1.  Cabell Midland
	2.  Morgantown
	3.  Buckhannon-Upshur
	4.  University
	5.  Preston
	6.  Hurricane
Cabell Midland will likely run the same unit that ran 4:03 to win last year.  I think that
gives them dibs on being called the favorite.  Morgantown can put together a team that can
run around 4:05.  I know Chelsea Carrier won't be available for Buckhannon-Upshur, but I 
think they can run about 4:07 without her.  University can add Amber Riley to their unit
which should put them in the 4:08 range.  Preston could run the same unit that ran 4:10
last year.  They'd have to do a little maneuvering to do it, but they might be able to run
that time without dropping Hamric from the 800.  Hurricane can run about 4:10 as well.
John Marshall will be in that mix.  Jefferson may be a factor as well, but will have to do
it from the first heat.

4x800 M	1.  Preston
	2.  Morgantown
	3.  University
	4.  Cabell Midland
	5.  Hurricane
	6.  Ripley
A fully loaded Preston team, should they choose to run that unit, would almost assuredly set
the record.  I could see that unit running close to a 9:30.  Morgantown can probably run under
9:40.  University can likely hit in the 9;45 range if they add Amber Riley to the unit.
Cabell Midland and Hurricane will fight it out for the next spot.  Hurricane has run more
fast times, but I think Midland has more upward potential.  Ripley and Jefferson will
battle for the last spot.  I gave it to Ripley simply because they've gone under 10:00 and
Jefferson hasn't.

Shuttle	1.  Wheeling Park
	2.  Parkersburg South
	3.  Parkersburg
	4.  Hedgesville
	5.  John Marshall
	6.  Hurricane
Wheeling Park is the only team to have gone under 1:06.  Parkersburg South has the next best
series.  Parkersburg did beat South at the Regional Meet, so that spot is certainly up for
grabs.  Hedgesville has the next best series and their top time is close, so they've been
given the nod over John Marshall and Hurricane.  The three should be really close.  Cabell
Midland, Martinsburg, and Hampshire will be waiting for someone to stumble.

L Jump	1.  Chelsea Carrier	Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Laquita Wilburn	Huntington
	3.  Marissa Wright	Buckhannon-Upshur
	4.  Brittany Pratt	George Washington
	5.  Brittany Wolford	Hampshire
	6.  Cassandra Lioi	Musselman
Carrier has five jumps over 18', and if she can duplicate her Regional jump, she'll set a
new State Record.  Wilburn is the only other jumper that has passed 17' feet.  She did that
once and has at least four 16' jumps to accompany it.  Wright is the only other jumper with
more than one 16' jump.  Pratt has a 16' and a 15'11.  The 16' occurred at the Regional
and it was at this venue.  Wolford has a 16' jump and three others 15'9 or better.  Lioi
only has two results in my database, but one was over 16' and the other was 15'4.  I'm taking
her as a bit of a wildcard.  The Long Jump is always a mess anyway.  Hedgesville's Suzanne
Malin also has a 16' jump to her credit, while Cabell Midland's Robin Rogers has the next
best series.

H Jump	1.  Kendall McCaugherty	Bridgeport
	2.  Lauren DeMarco	Robert C. Byrd
	3.  Brittany Wolford	Hampshire
	4.  Jenna Fogg		Bridgeport
	5.  Erin Dansey		Parkersburg
	6.  Jessica Gilkeson	Parkersburg South
McCaugherty has a pair of 5'8 jumps, a 5'7 and at least a pair of 5'6 jumps.  No one else has
been higher than 5'4.  DeMarco has that 5'4 jump, but it's her only one over 5'0.  She does
have at least four 5'0 jumps.  Wolford has the only remaining 5'2 jump.  She has three 5'0
jumps to accompany it.  Fogg has three 5'0 jumps including one at the Regional Meet.  She
also placed last year.  Dansey has a pair of 5'0 jumps and placed last year.  Gilkeson is the
only other jumper with a pair of 5'0 performances, and she accomplished the feat at the 
Regional Meet.  There are three other jumpers who have cleared 5'0: Capital's Brittany Cox,
Greenbrier East's Ali Curry, and Elkins' Megan Warner.

Shot	1.  Christy Austin	Hurricane
	2.  Ashley Morrow	Cabell Midland
	3.  Elsie Smith		Preston
	4.  Rachel Timbrook	Hampshire
	5.  Tara Johnson	Cabell Midland
	6.  Ashley Heavener	Hampshire
Austin has at least five throws over 38'.  No one else has more than one.  Morrow beat her
at the Regional Meet, though and is the defending champion.  Smith has been very consistent.
Her top five throws are all between 35'4 and 34'8.  Timbrook has a better top throw but 
doesn't quite match the series of Smith.  Johnson has three throws over 34'.  Heavener
has a pair of throws over 34'.  Parkersburg's Kim Dent is the next most likely as she also 
has a 35' throw to her creidt.

Discus	1.  Shannon Hooper	Capital
	2.  Kim Dent		Parkersburg
	3.  Christ Austin	Hurricane
	4.  Alisha Bowman	Cabell Midland
	5.  Arielle Stafford	Bridgeport
	6.  Ashley Heavener	Hampshire
Hooper has three throws over 120'.  No one else has more than one.  Her top throw is nearly
5' ahead of anyone else, and her top three throws have been in her last three meets.  Dent 
has easily the next best series with all five of her top throws being over 116'.  Austin
has the next best top throw and the next best series.  Bowman follows closely after and
did beat Austin at the Regional Meet.  Stafford has the next best series and was a placer
last year.  Her regional effort was better than Austin or Bowman.  Heavener has the next
best top throw but not the next best series.  She was given the nod over Buckhannon-Upshur's
Susie Godwin based on Regional Performance.  

P Vault	1.  Tara Collins	Parkersburg South
	2.  Caitlin Meeks	Parkersburg
	3.  Brittany Pratt	George Washington
	4.  Jami Fonner		John Marshall
	5.  Lauren DeMarco	Robert C. Byrd
	6.  Megan Loughry 	Hurricane
Collins became the first girl to clear 10' this season at the Regional Meet.  She has a 
9'6 vault to go along with it.  Meeks has a pair of 9'6 vaults and at least three 9'0
vaults.  Pratt and Fonner cleared 9'6 at their Regional meets and Pratt placed last year.
Pratt has that 9'6 and a pair of 9'0 vaults to her credit.  Fonner has an additional 9'3 
vault and a pair of 9'0 vaults.  DeMarco also has a pair of 9'6 vaults, but her third best 
outing is only 8'6.  Loughry and Ripley's Jamie Casto each have a single 9'0 vault.  Loughry
has four 8'6 vaults to her credit as well though, and I'm rewarding that consistency.

High Point Predicitons
1.  Chelsea Carrier	Buckhannon-Upshur	40
2.  Kaylyn Christopher	Preston			23
3.  Marissa Wright	Buckhannon-Upshur	19.50
4.  Laquita Wilburn	Huntington		18.50
5.  Amber Riley		University		18.50