Class AA Girls Individual Event Predictions

Individual Predictions
100 M	1.  Jordann Mitchell	Oak Glen
	2.  Deja Jones		Oak Hill
	3.  Mallory Nowlin	Point Pleasant
	4.  Kelsey Spang	Winfield
	5.  Cheri Bunner	Ritchie
	6.  Jenna Howell	Lincoln
Mitchell has the best top time and the best series.  Jones, however, does have the best
electronic time and could take this event.  Nowlin is the only other runner to have been
under 13 seconds and has easily the next best series.  Spang has the next best front
end series and was a 3rd place finisher a year ago.  Bunner appears to be hitting
things about right, with her top 3 runs coming in her last two meets.  Howell has a 
better top time than Bunner and actually a better overall series.  Her Regional Meet
was not up to par, though, and she'll have just run the 100 Meter High Hurdles.  Roane's
Morgan Cottrell, Sherman's Demi Kirk, and Liberty Harrison's Shayna Foley will try to
slip into a spot.

200 M	1.  Jordann Mitchell	Oak Glen
	2.  Emily Stewart	Winfield
	3.  Mallory Nowlin	Point Pleasant
	4.  Sharron Gianessi	Weir
	5.  Cassie Bunner	Ritchie
	6.  Deja Jones		Oak Hill
Mitchell and Stewart should be very tight.  Mitchell has a better series, but their top
end electronic times are nearly identical.  It should be close.  Nowlin has the next 
best time by about 0.2 seconds and easily the next best series.  Gianessi may be a bit
of a reach for 3rd as she hasn't been running nearly as well as last year.  Her top time
is and her series both would rank her only 6th, but I keep thinking that it's there and
we just haven't seen it yet.  Bunner has beaten Nowlin at times this year, so she could
definitely move up.  Jones is also very dangerous.  She is very much a threat to crack
the top three.  Winfield's Kelsey Spang, Bluefield's Sarah Hudak, and Oak Hill's
Shakilya Cosby will be in the mix to fight for a place.  The front 9 have all run under
27 seconds.

400 M	1.  Jordann Mitchell	Oak Glen
	2.  Emily Stewart	Winfield
	3.  Sarah Hudak		Bluefield
	4.  Cassie Bunner	Ritchie
	5.  Lisa Day		Winfield
	6.  Shakilya Cosby	Oak Hill
Mitchell made a very strong statement in last year's State Meet, and has kept on making
that statement throughout this year.  She has 5 runs over 59.0 or better.  No one else
has gone under 59.  Stewart is the biggest threat with a pair of sub-60 clockings.  
Hudak has a pair of runs that were just barely over the 60 second mark.  She could 
surprise the front two.  Bunner ran under 60.5 at her Regional Meet and has three runs
under 62.  Day has a pair of runs under 62 and was third a year ago.  Cosby ran under 61 
at the Regional Meet and could move up.  Oak Glen's Hailee Temple is the only other runner 
to have been under 62 seconds.

800 M	1.  Meghan Mock		Berkeley Springs
	2.  Lisa Day		Winfield
	3.  Holly Rooper	Winfield
	4.  Katelyn Hunt	Grafton
	5.  Rachel Buser	Berkeley Springs
	6.  Darby Mullen	Logan
Like last year, Mock has only run the event one time.  Berkeley Springs made the right
call to pull her out of the deep 100 High field to run this event.  I picked her last
year and it bit me, but I'm going with her again.  Heading into the Regional Meets, only
one girl had run under 2:30, making this a pretty wide open event.  Day and Rooper turned
2:27's at their Regional Meet and could take the top two spots.  Day was the champion last
year.  Hunt gets the nod for fourth based on better 400 speed.  Buser gets the nod over 
Mullen based on a better overall series.  Winfield's Chelsea Edwards, Oak Glen's Annah 
Cashdollar (placed last year), and a host of others will be hoping that the morning's 
1600 race will have taken some of the spark out of Hunt, Buser, and Mullen.  

1600 M	1.  Rachel Buser	Berkeley Springs
	2.  Darby Mullen	Logan
	3.  Breanna Henry	Berkeley Springs
	4.  Holly Rooper	Winfield
	5.  Katelyn Hunt	Grafton
	6.  Jessica Roberts	Roane
Buser has the best time by just over 3 seconds and is the two-time defending champion.
However, Mullen has the best series and did win pretty convincingly at the Gazette
Relays.  I'm still going with Buser though.  Henry is the only other runner to have been
under 5:40 more than once and she's done it at least five times.  Rooper has the next 
best time and easily the next best series.  Hunt has a very narrow edge over Roberts.
Hunt also went under 5:30 last year, showing top end potential that Henry and Rooper haven't
shown yet.  Hunt and Roberts throwing out their finishing kicks against each other could 
reel in Rooper.  Frankfort's Joanna Lamp's top time is within a second of Roberts, so she'll 
definitely be a factor.  Another four girls are within 5-7 seconds of that group but will 
likely have to have career days to be in the top 6.

3200 M	1.  Rachel Buser	Berkeley Springs
	2.  Darby Mullen	Logan
	3.  Megan Truelove	Winfield
	4.  Jessica Roberts	Roane
	5.  Ali Carpenter	Ritchie
	6.  Breanna Henry	Berkeley Springs
Buser has the best time by nearly 15 seconds and is the two-time defending champion.
Mullen has had an outstanding season and has at least five runs better than anyone
else's best.  Truelove is the only other runner to have gone under 12:00 and has easily
the next best series.  Roberts ran exceptionally well at her conference meet and has a 
very strong finish.  Carpenter has a top time that is less than a second off Roberts
and actually has a better overall series.  Those two are over 30 seconds ahead of the
remainder of the field, who should battle for 6th.  I'm going with Henry for 6th.  She's
only run the 3200 one time this year, and that was at the Regional.  As well as she's
run the 1600, though, she could put a scare into Roberts and Carpenter, particularly if
they don't bring their best race.  Also look out for Berkeley Springs' Kari Mundey, who
ran a 12:16 last year to place 5th.

100 HH	1.  Micah Osborne	Winfield
	2.  Jenna Howell	Lincoln
	3.  Brooke Day		Frankfort
	4.  Morganne Bennett	Winfield
	5.  Shannon Reid	Tyler Consolidated
	6.  Cameron Yoho	Tyler Consolidated
Osborne gets the nod over Howell bue to a better series of times.  Howell does have the
best top time of the group and ran that time at this venue.  Howell is also the defending
champion.  Day has a better top time than Bennett, but Bennett has a better series.  Day's 
times have been coming down, though, and she was second place a year ago.  Reid and Yoho 
have the next best series of times.  Weir's Alexandra Bobalik is very much a possibility 
as is Melissa Billings of Independence who has taken quite well to the event.

300 LH	1.  Meghan Mock		Berkeley Springs
	2.  Morganne Bennett	Winfield
	3.  Brooke Day		Frankfort
	4.  Micah Osborne	Winfield
	5.  Marteny Jacobs	Philip Barbour
	6.  Ashli Knotts	Roane
This could be one of the better races of the weekend.  The top four have times within
0.62 of each other.  Mock is the only one to slip under 46 and won the event last year.
Bennett has a pair of runs under 46.4 and was very close to Mock at the Gazette Relays.
Day has been Mock's shadow in recent meets.  Osborne showed a dramatic improvement 
between the conference meet and the regional meet and could be poised to really turn
one out.  Jacobs has the next best series.  Knotts has a better top time than Jacobs and
is a dangerous athlete.  Lincoln's Shanna Akers, Winfield's Jade Smith, and Weir's
Kandis Castelli have all been under 50.

4x100 M	1.  Weir
	2.  Lincoln
	3.  Winfield
	4.  Roane
	5.  Ritchie
	6.  Tyler Consolidated
Weir has the 2nd best top time and the 3rd best series, but I still think Gianessi is
finally starting to come on.  I think they take the event.  Lincoln has the best series
and might be a more legitimate favorite.  Winfield has the best top time, but I don't
know if they can load this one along with all the others, so I'm downshifting this one
just a little.  Roane was very solid at their regional.  Ritchie has a strong unit that
includes someone coming off an injury that should only get better between the Regional
and State Meet.  Tyler Consolidated has a better series than Roane or Ritchie and could
move up.  Oak Glen, Philip Barbour, and Point Pleasant will also be very dangerous.

4x200 M	1.  Winfield
	2.  Ritchie
	3.  Weir
	4.  Lincoln
	5.  Frankfort
	6.  Oak Glen
Winfield had the top Regional time and has the best top time, though it was a slightly
different unit that ran that time.  Ritchie showed some muscle at the Regional Meet with
their 1:49 flat mark.  Weir has been  uner 1:50 a couple times and could knock off 
Ritchie.  Lincoln is about 1.5 seconds behind Weir.  Frankfort's Regional time didn't
stand up well, but the same group ran a low 1:51 a week earlier.  Oak Glen is very close
to Frankfort and could move up.  Tyler Consolidated is the only other distinct threat
in this event.

4x400 M	1.  Oak Glen
	2.  Winfield
	3.  Ritchie
	4.  Weir
	5.  Frankfort
	6.  Grafton
Can Oak Glen beat their State Record from a year ago.  They can probably make a run at it,
but I've got them coming up a little short.  Winfield has only been 4:16, but I think 
they can run about 4:06 if fully loaded.  Ritchie can be close to 4:10.  I think Weir
and Frankfort can both hit about 4:14.  Weir's been closer to that, so I'm giving them
the nod.  Grafton can likely go under 4:20 and that should be enough to insure the 6th
position.  The most likely to throw a wrench into the works may be Roane.  Their best
time is only 4:32, but they've got some horses they can put on there if they want to
move people around.  They might be able to put a 4:20ish group together.

4x800 M	1.  Winfield
	2.  Frankfort
	3.  Berkeley Springs
	4.  Oak Glen
	5.  Grafton
	6.  Keyser
Winfield is probably the only threat to go under 10:00.  Frankfort may be able to run
with them, but I think they'll come up a bit short.  Berkeley Springs should be in the
mix as well, but appear to be just off the mark.  Oak Glen and Grafton both look like
they can crack the 10:20 barrier. Keyser has gone 10:25 already and could get by either
of those two.  Ritchie and Shady Spring will be trying to sneak past for a place.

Shuttle	1.  Lincoln
	2.  Winfield
	3.  Tyler Consolidated
	4.  Weir
	5.  Philip Barbour
	6.  Oak Glen
Lincoln is the only team to have gone faster than 1:06 and they did it as this venue.
Winfield has been under 1:06.5 twice.  Tyler Consolidated has been under 1:07 three
times.  Those three appear to be strong favorites.  Weir has a couple runs under 1:08.
Philip Barbour's top times is just over 1:08.  No one else has been under 1:10.  Oak 
Glen will try to hold off Magnolia.

L Jump	1.  Meghan Mock		Berkeley Springs
	2.  Marteny Jacobs	Philip Barbour
	3.  Jenna Howell	Lincoln
	4.  Stephanie Mitchell	Roane
	5.  Morgan Bryant	Independence
	6.  Maranda Woodruff	Oak Glen
Wow...I'm picking the same top 5 I did last year...just in a different order.  Mock is
again the class of the field.  He has a pair of 18' jumps and five jumps better than
anyone else's best.  Jacobs has four jumps over 16' and the next best series.  Howell
also has four jumps over 16' has a better top jump than Jacobs by an inch.  Mitchell
is the only other jumper with a 16' effort and she has the next best series.  Bryant
has the next best series with three jumps over 15'6.  Woodruff has a better top jump
than Bryant and could take that spot.  Also fighting for spots will be Philip Barbour's
Madison Kelley, Sissonville's Sydney Cummings, Frankfort's Skyler Wampler, and Shady
Spring's Demi Morrison who have all soared past 15'6.  Poca's Jordan Meadows doesn't 
quite have the resume of some of the others, but she did place 3rd a year ago.

H Jump	1.  Sydney Cummings	Sissonville
	2.  Meghan Mock		Berkeley Springs
	3.  Morgan Cottrell	Roane
	4.  Amber Booher	Berkeley Springs
	5.  Courtney Stanley	Weir
	6.  Chelsea Sammons	Ritchie
Cummings has a couple jumps of 5'7 and another 5'6.  Mock has a couple 5'6 jumps and
at least three of 5'4.  Cummings won the head-to-head battle at the Gazette Relays.
Cottrell has a pair of 5'4 jumps but only went 4'8 at her Regional.  Booher has three
5'0 jumps including her Regional Meet.  Stanley has a 5'0 and a pair of 4'10's.  Sammons
is the only other jumper with more than one 4'10 performance, and she only has two.
The last couple spots are pretty much up for grabs.

Shot	1.  Ally Riley		Lincoln
	2.  Chelsea Harman	Keyser
	3.  Betsy Nelson	Ritchie
	4.  Katie Whittington	Berkeley Springs
	5.  Alea Hipes		Point Pleasant
	6.  Andrea Celorio	Poca
Riley is the only thrower to have topped 35' and she's done it twice.  Harman is the only
other thrower to have topped 34' and she's done it twice.  Nelson is the only remaining
thrower with multiple throws over 33', which she's done...yep...twice.  Whittington has
the next best series.  Hipes has a better top throw than Whittington, and it occurred
at her Regional Meet, so she could move up.  Celorio is the only ramaining thrower that
has been over 33'.  Oak Glen's Kylie Emfinger could slide in a take a spot.

Discus	1.  Betsy Nelson	Ritchie
	2.  Katie Woofter	Oak Glen
	3.  Elizabeth Staggers	Keyser
	4.  Brittney Thomas	Oak Hill
	5.  Renee Shepherd	Magnolia
	6.  Heather Sheme	Grafton
The pre-Regional favorite will not be in the field, so that opens things up a bit.  
Nelson has four throws over 110', while no one else has more than one.  Woofter has a
better top throw than Nelson and beat her at the Regional Meet, so she could very 
easily take the event.  Those two are about 11' ahead of the rest of the field.  Anyone
else winning would be a major upset.  Staggers is the only other thrower with more
than one toss over 100'.  Thomas has a better top throw than Staggers but hasn't been
as consistent.  Shepherd has a pair of 99' throws.  Shemes has the next best top end
series.  Berkeley Springs' Kelsey McCoy could fit in somewhere.

P Vault	1.  Kelli Sealover	Ritchie
	2.  Ashli Knotts	Roane
	3.  Shannon Reid	Tyler Consolidated
	4.  Jessica Schwaner	Winfield
	5.  Adriann Gaylor	Winfield
	6.  Alyssa Palmer	Ravenswood
Sealover has the only vaults over 10', which she's done twice.  In fact, she has the 
only vaults over 9' in the field.  She's been over 9'6 at least five times and is the
defending champion.  Knotts has cleared 8'6 three times.  Reid has cleared 8'6 twice.
Schwaner is the only other vaulter to have cleared 8'6.  Gaylor has an 8'3 vault and
three 8'0 vaults, so she could take the spot from her teammate.  Palmer has an 8'3 
and a pair of 8'0 vaults.  No one else in the field has cleared higher than 7'6.
	
High Point Predictions
1.  Meghan Mock		Berkeley Springs	38
2.  Jordann Mitchell	Oak Glen		32.50
3.  Rachel Buser	Berkeley Springs	23.50
4.  Emily Stewart	Winfield		20.50
5.  Micah Osborne	Winfield		18.50