2007 State Meet Predictions

RunWV Predictions
Class AAA Boys

Class AAA Boys Individual Event Predictions

100 M 1. Marquel Ali Woodrow Wilson
2. Steven Bumpus Capital
3. Christian Edwards Cabell Midland
4. Terrell Martin Hurricane
5. Wesley Eades Bridgeport
6. Jordan Reed Hedgesville
Ali appears to be pretty handily ahead of the field. He has at least five electronic
clockings that are better than anyone else's best by over a tenth of a second. Bumpus
is the only other competitor to have been under 11 seconds. Edwards has an 11.01
electronic clocking, so I'm giving him the nod over Martin even though Martin has a
better series. Eades has a very strong overall series. Reed looked very strong in
his regional meet. Fairmont Senior's Jerry Kelly, Capital's Calvin Medley, and
Morgantown's Ian Locust are among the frontrunners that will be trying to take a spot.
There are about 12 guys that I can see placing in this event.

200 M 1. Marquel Ali Woodrow Wilson
2. Terrell Martin Hurricane
3. Steven Bumpus Capital
4. Andrew Carrier Buckhannon-Upshur
5. Christian Edwards Cabell Midland
6. Wesley Eades Bridgeport
Ali is again a solid favorite. He has three runs under 22 seconds and four runs better
than anyone else's best. Martin has three runs of 22.10 or better. Bumpus ran a couple
stellar times at his Regional Meet. Carrier has a better overall series than Bumpus,
but his top time is 0.19 slower, which is fairly significant in a 200. Edwards has
easily the next best series. Eades has easily the next best series after that. These
six have all clocked 22.70 or better and they've all gone under 23 at least five times.
Of the remaining competitors, only Hedgesville's Adam Leonard has been under 23, and he
has only done it once.

400 M 1. Terrell Martin Hurricane
2. Andrew Carrier Buckhannon-Upshur
3. Wesley Eades Bridgeport
4. Vinnie Crumrine Wheeling Park
5. Mark Sampson John Marshall
6. Marcus Hayes Princeton
Martin is the class of the field. His 48.28 at the Gazette Relays served notice that
James Jett's record could be under assault. Martin is the only one with more than one
run under 50, which he's done three times, and he's been under 49 twice. Carrier is
the only other one to have gone under 50. He also have four other runs between 50
and 50.50. Eades has the next best series and actually beat Carrier at the Regional.
Crumrine is the only remaining competitor with more than one run under 51, and he's done
it three times. Sampson has a better top time than Crumrine and beat him at the
Conference and Regional Meets. Hayes has two very good times to his credit. Wheeling
Park's Brandon McKinley and Parkersburg South's Shawn Coe are the most likely to break
into the scoring.

800 M 1. David Bias Cabell Midland
2. John Dorchinez Nitro
3. Andy Bailey St. Albans
4. Cameron Lemley Parkersburg
5. Devon Davis Musselman
6. Sam Stalnaker Buckhannon-Upshur
Bias is the only runner to have run under 2:00. He's actually the only runner under
2:01. His top time is about 2.5 seconds ahead of everyone else. Dorchinez has the
second best top time and the second best series. Bailey is the only other runner in the
field to have gone under 2:02. Lemley has the next best top-end series. Davis has a
better top time the Lemley and could definitely move up. Stalnaker has the next best
top time and the next best series. Preston's Josh Feather, Wheeling Park's Ryan Beabout,
University's Mack Triplett, and George Washington's Adam Woodruff will contend for
spots. Some of these guys who are on the outside looking in will have also run the 1600.
However, they did that at the Regional Meet as well, and they'll have more rest this
time, so their times could/should come down.

1600 M 1. Ryan Beabout Wheeling Park
2. Josh Feather Preston
3. David Bias Cabell Midland
4. Eric Frohnapfel University
5. Adam Woodruff George Washington
6. Zach Messenger St. Albans
Beabout's time is 7 seconds better than anyone else and he's been 4:25 or better twice.
Feather is the defending champion and has the second best series and second best top time.
Bias has three runs under 4:37 and has the 800 speed to be a factor. Frohnapfel has the
3rd best top time and another run under 4:37. Woodruss has a 4:32 and another run under 4:40.
Messenger has a pair of runs under 4:38. Other distinct possibilities include North Marion's
Zach Tennant, Preston's Craig Pritt, University's Chris Cole, Cabell Midland's Trey Beckett,
Hampshire's John Paul Binotto, and Elkins' Alex Zurbuch who have all been under 4:40.

3200 M 1. Ryan Beabout Wheeling Park
2. Eric Frohnapfel University
3. Josh Feather Preston
4. Alex Zurbuch Elkins
5. Cory Hampshire Jefferson
6. Zach Tennant North Marion
Beabout is a whopping 28 seconds ahead of the field. Not much else needs to be said. It
would take a monumental effort to knock him off. Frohnapfel and Feather have gone head-to-
head in each of their top three times. The first and third meetings went to Frohnapfel
with the middle meeting going to Feather. It should be another tight battle between the
two. Zurbuch has a couple runs under 10:00 and came through with a place last year.
Hampshire also has a pair of runs under 10:00 and was fourth in the State Cross Country
Meet. Tennant also has a pair of runs under 10:00. Parkersburg South's Brian Blanc and
Cabell Midland's Trey Beckett have also gone under 10:00 and could take a place.

110 HH 1. Andy Goldbaugh Wheeling Park
2. Dwight Holden Robert C. Byrd
3. Nick Watts St. Albans
4. John Gadomski Greenbrier East
5. Mark Sampson John Marshall
6. Robin Dean Hedgesville
Goldbaugh has the best series of times and has three electronic clockings under 14.80.
Holden has the best top time and is the defending champion. This should be a good showdown.
Watts is the only other competitor to have been under 15 seconds. Gadomski and Sampson
are very similar. Gadomski has a slightly better series while Sampson has a better top
time (by 0.01). Dean has the next best series but will have to fend off Buckhannon-Upshur's
Andrew Burnise and Jefferson's David Acly.

300 IH 1. Andy Goldbaugh Wheeling Park
2. Andrew Carrier Buckhannon-Upshur
3. Dwight Holden Robert C. Byrd
4. Mark Sampson John Marshall
5. Eddie Aspy Robert C. Byrd
6. Michael Meadows Buckhannon-Upshur
Goldbaugh has four runs faster than anyone else's best, and he's the defending champion.
Carrier is the only other runner to have been under 40 seconds more than once. Holden
has also gone under 40 seconds and beat Carrier at the Regional Meet. He also finished
2nd in the event last year. Sampson has the next best top time. Aspy has a better series
than Sampson, but his top time is over 0.4 seconds slower. Meadows also has a better
series than Sampson, but he'll have to try to do his damage from the 1st heat. Wheeling
Park's Geoff Hempelmann, Brooke's Jim McFarland and Hurricane's Dakota Litton will try
to snag a spot. The top 12 guys in this event have all run 41.5 or better.

4x100 M 1. Hedgesville
2. Capital
3. Jefferson
4. Wheeling Park
5. Cabell Midland
6. Morgantown
With Jefferson battling several injury bugs, it opens this event up. Hedgesville is the
only other team that has been under 44 seconds. Capital really picked it up a knotch at
the Regional Meet. I'm sliding Jefferson down to 3rd based on assumed substitutions.
I don't know exactly how hurt they are or how good the subs are. It's possible that
they heal enough to win, so I don't want to drop them further. Their spot is definitely
in jeopardy. Wheeling Park has a very solid series and has the potential to move up.
Cabell Midland is putting the final pieces together as usual. Morgantown has had four
runs under 45 seconds. Woodrow Wilson and Huntington look to shake things up.

4x200 M 1. Hedgesville
2. Wheeling Park
3. Cabell Midland
4. Capital
5. Woodrow Wilson
6. Huntington
Hedgesville has the top time with their outstanding regional run. Wheeling Park has the
best series and has all four runners from last year's 2nd place team available. Cabell
Midland went under 1:32 at their Regional Meet. Capital is an improving team. Woodrow
Wilson only has the 8th fastest time of the group but with Marquel Ali as your closer,
you're very dangerous. Huntington has also put together a very strong team. Again, the
health of the Jefferson team is in question, and with this unit, they also have one member
who is apparently not going to be at the meet. If all present and healthy, they're a top
three threat.

4x400 M 1. Wheeling Park
2. Parkersburg South
3. John Marshall
4. Martinsburg
5. Cabell Midland
6. Brooke
Wheeling Park looks like they have the most top-end potential from their group. 3:25 is
very much within reach. Parkersburg South and John Marshall are both very much in contention
to win the event. I have trouble seeing any but those three take the event. Martinsburg
has gone under 3:30. Cabell Midland beat Parkersburg South at the Regional and just missed
going under 3:30. Brooke is about 3 seconds back, but they generally perform well in this
final event. Jefferson is again facing the health and presence issues. Nitro and Hedgesville
are the primary threats to take spots.

4x800 M 1. Wheeling Park
2. Cabell Midland
3. Martinsburg
4. Parkersburg South
5. Hedgesville
6. St. Albans
Wheeling Park looks like they can put together the best unit. I have trouble seeing any of
the teams going under 8:10. Maybe they'll surprise me, but I can see Park turning an 8:12
I can see Cabell Midland scoring an 8:15 or so. Martinsburg ran an 8:18.96 at the end of
April, so you have to believe they can go faster now. Parkersburg South can hit 8:20 or
so, as can Hedgesville. St. Albans ran an 8:30 without Zach Messenger. I figure adding
him to the unit can bring them down into placing territory. They'll have their hands full
with Hampshire and possible dark horse candidate Parkersburg. Really, it's not unreasonable
to think 14 of the teams could place.

Shuttle 1. Wheeling Park
2. Robert C. Byrd
3. St. Albans
4. Cabell Midland
5. Martinsburg
6. Woodrow Wilson
Wheeling Park is the only team to have gone under 58. Robert C. Byrd was just over 58 at
their regional. St. Albans is the only other team to have gone under 59, and they're the
only team period to have gone under 59 three times. My hope would be that the three teams
would hit the final exchange even and let Andy Goldbaugh, Dwight Holden, and Nick Watts
battle it out. Cabell Midland is the only other team to have been under 60 three times.
Martinsburg has been under 60 twice. Woodrow wilson bested their previous time by 3 seconds
at the Regional Meet. Hedgesville is the only other team to have gone under 60 seconds,
but there are four additional teams that have gone under 60.5.

L Jump 1. Ryan Ramsby Cabell Midland
2. Andrew Carrier Buckhannon-Upshur
3. Brandon McKinley Wheeling Park
4. Jordan Swiger Robert C. Byrd
5. Chase Smith George Washington
6. Robin Dean Hedgesville
Ramsby is the only one in the field with three 21' leaps, and he placed last year. Carrier
is the only other jumper with more than one 21' jump, and he has at least 5 jumps of 20'6
or better. McKinley has a 21' jump and another couple over 20'6. Swiger has the best
top jump of the group and four jumps of over 20'. Smith has a 21' jump and another couple
over 20'. Dean has the 2nd best top jump and another couple over 20'. Bridgeport's
Wesley Eades and St. Albans' Aaron Dunlap each have five 20' jumps, and their consistency
could be rewarded.

H Jump 1. Daniel Jarrell Cabell Midland
2. Dewey McDonald Jefferson
3. Jordan Swiger Robert C. Byrd
4. Todd Offenberger Parkersburg South
5. Matt Deel John Marshall
6. Kevin Wesley Martinsburg
Jarrell is the most consistent of the field. He has a 6'5 and at least four other 6'4 jumps.
McDonald is the only jumper with more than one 6'6 jump. Swiger has the highest single
jump with his 6'8. Offenberger has a 6'6 jump and a couple 6'4's all of which have occurred
late in the season. Deel has a pair of 6'4 jumps and placed 3rd last year. Wesley is one of
four other jumpers who have a single 6'2 jump. I gave the nod to Wesley because he placed
last year, meaning he has shown the ability to jump well on the big stage. The others are
East Fairmont's Brandon Starcher, Hedgesville's Chris Deaner, and St. Albans' Trevor Wilburn.

Shot 1. Justin Adkins Parkersburg
2. Ronnie Patrick Cabell Midland
3. Eric Howe John Marshall
4. Cole Bowers Cabell Midland
5. Robbie Fisher Wheeling Park
6. Matt Porter Martinsburg
Adkins is the only thrower to go higher than 51'. His best is 52'10 and his 5th best throw
is better than anyone else's top throw. Patrick is the only other thrower who has topped
50', and he's done it twice. Howe has easily the next best series and is the only other
thrower with more than one 49' toss. Bowers is the only other thrower with more than one
47' toss. Fisher has a 49' toss, but his second best throw is under 47'. Porter has the
next best series. Ripley's Anthony Anderson and Parkersburg's Brandon Flint (placed last
year) are the top additional threats.

Discus 1. Matt Porter Martinsburg
2. Justin Adkins Parkersburg
3. Matt Davis Hampshire
4. Brandon Flint Parkersburg
5. Ryan Godwin Buckhannon-Upshur
6. Ricky Hunt Wheeling Park
Porter has the top throw by about 15'. He's got at least 5 throws better than anyone else's
best. Adkins has the next best series, just slightly ahead of Davis on each of the first
four. Flint is the only other thrower to have thrown 140'. Godwin has the next best series
and place last year. Hunt has the next best series after that. Riverside's Raheem Waiters
actually has a better top throuw than Godwin or Hunt, but that's his only throw over 130'.
Wheeling Park's Bobby McConnell and John Marshall's Jeff Henderson will try to squeeze in.

P Vault 1. William Roberts Hedgesville
2. Nathan Schwenk Bridgeport
3. Aaron Dunlap St. Albans
4. Scott McMillan Parkersburg
5. Travis Townsend Parkersburg South
6. Cam Lemley Parkersburg
Roberts has the only 13'6 vault of the group and a vault of 12'6 to accompany it. Schwenk
has a 13' vault and three 12'6 vaults. Dunlap went 13' at the Regional, the only one to do
so, but his second best vault is only 12'. McMillan has a 13' vault and a 12'6 vault.
Townsend matches those stats. Lemley has four 12'6 vaults, and his consistency could move
him up. Bridgeport's Erik Green has the only other 12'6 vault of the group.

High Point Predicitons
1. Andrew Carrier Buckhannon-Upshur 28
2. Andy Goldbaugh Wheeling Park 24.50
3. Ryan Beabout Wheeling Park 22.50
4. Terrell Martin Hurricane 22
5. Marquel Ali Woodrow Wilson 20.50