Class AAA Girls Individual Event Predictions

Individual Predictions

100 M	1.  Chelsea Carrier	Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Kristen Loughry	Hurricane
	3.  Miranda Richards	Parkersburg
	4.  Alaina Pletcher	Musselman
	5.  Valerie Jasper	Fairmont Senior
	6.  Lindsay Gutta	Morgantown
Carrier certainly comes in as a heavy favorite having 5 runs faster than anyone else's best.
However, she'll have already run the 400 and the 300 Hurdles in the morning session.  But she
did that last year with no real problems, so it shouldn't be a problem this year.  Loughry
will have already run the 300 Hurdles and the 100 Highs, so for her to slip down a notch as 
well is certainly possible.  Richards finished right on Loughry's tail at the MSAC and seems
to be coming on strong at the season's end.  Pletcher has a very strong series of hand times
with one very good electronic clocking.  Jasper also has a strong series and was a placer
last year.  Gutta has a few very solid electronic times.  There are several others that
have very legitimate shots at placing in this event.  It's tough to completely rule any of
them out.

200 M	1.  Chelsea Carrier	Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Lindsay Gutta	Morgantown
	3.  Miranda Richards	Parkersburg
	4.  Ashley Adkins	Nicholas
	5.  Bianca Armstrong	Jefferson
	6.  Alaina Pletcher	Musselman
Carrier is way out front in this one.  After that, this one got really difficult.  I've
changed it several times already.  Gutta was the fastest at her Regional Meet and has a
solid series.  Richards was also under 27 in her Regional and was a very low 27 at the MSAC.
Adkins has been fast all season and had a sub-27 clocking at the Gazette Relays.  Armstrong
and Pletcher both have the same issue.  Between the two, 9 of their 10 top times are hand
times.  So how fast are they really?  We'll find out.  They could go 2-3.  They could not
make finals.  In my moving things all around, I've also placed Brooke's Chelsea Carrol and
South Charleston's Nicole Hill.

400 M	1.  Chelsea Carrier	Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Danielle Winningham	Cabell Midland
	3.  Keri Bland		North Marion
	4.  Lindsey Mills	East Fairmont
	5.  Cari Shaffer	Morgantown
	6.  Bianca Armstrong	Jefferson
There are six girls in the field who have gone under 60 seconds this year.  Those are the
six I placed.  Carrier is the defending champion and has the fastest time.  Winningham has
the most sub-60 runs with at least 5 of them, and she led Carrier for most the race at the
Gazette Relays.  Bland is the only other runner with more than one sub-60.  Mills has the
next best series with four runs under 61.  Shaffer's only sub-60 came at the Regional Meet.
Armstrong will have to do her damage from the 1st heat.  It's hard, but it can be done.
People have won out of the first heat before.  I feel like Lacey Bertrand, Laura Lovett,
Jennifer Cooperrider, and Nellie Davis all have a shot as well.

800 M	1.  Kaylyn Christopher	Preston
	2.  Keri Bland		North Marion
	3.  Monica Chase	Morgantown
	4.  Danielle Winningham	Cabell Midland
	5.  Heather Saffel	Elkins
	6.  Lindsey Mills	East Fairmont
What a strong field.  Five girls have gone under 2:20 at some point this season.  Christopher
has been the fastest by over two seconds, so she's certainly the favorite.  It could depend
on how hard she pushes in the 1600.  Bland is the defending champion and has better speed
than Christopher.  Chase has a paid of clockings under 2:20.  Winningham has a sub-2:20, and
it was at the Gazette Relays where she was pulled through by Christopher.  Saffel isn't one
of the ones that has run under 2:20, but she did knock off Mills at the NCAC meet.  Mills
has the other 2:20 times, and it did happen at the Regional Meet.  Chelsea Knotts and
Jennifer Cooperrider have shots at getting into the scoring.

1600 M	1.  Kaylyn Christopher	Preston
	2.  Amber Riley		University
	3.  Heather Saffel	Elkins
	4.  Jordan Hamric	Preston
	5.  Ellen Kist		Parkersburg
	6.  Alicia Thomas	Cabell Midland
Christopher, in case you've been under rock, became the first WV High School girl to go under
5:00 in the 1600 earlier this year.  She comes in as the prohibitive favorite in the event.
Riley has scored a 5:05 in the event and apparently skipped the 3200 so that she'd be nice
and fresh for the 1600.  Saffel has a very strong series but likely can't go with the other
two.  Hamrick has the only other runs under 5:30, and she has 3 of them.  Things get very
tight after this.  Kist has the next best series and a pair of times better than anyone
else's best.  Thomas has the next best series after that.  I feel like 13 of the girls
have legitimate shots.  A darkhorse candidate is Hannah Henderson.  She's only gone 5:40
this year, but she did spring a 5:20 on us at the State Meet last year.

3200 M	1.  Kaylyn Christopher	Preston
	2.  Allison Pettit	Morgantown
	3.  Jennifer Van der Sloot University
	4.  Ashley Teets	Preston
	5.  Brooke Boening	Jefferson
	6.  Rachel Riley	Cabell Midland
Gee, the top 4 are from Region I.  And guess what, if the Committee had not foolishly voted
down last year's proposal, I'd be picking Courtney Yaeger to place as well.  There are nine
girls in the field that have gone under 12:00.  Christopher put everyone on notice at the
Gazette Relays when she popped a 10:33, lowering the State's All-Time standard by a whopping
23 seconds.  I've only seen four times for Pettit, but they've all been under 12:00, with
two of them under 11:45.  Van der Sloot has two under 12:00 and was just behind Pettit at
the Regional.  Teets actually has a better overall series than Van der Sloot.  She's the
only one in the field other than Christopher with at least 5 runs under 12:00.  However,
Van der Sloot has beaten her in two of the three recent head-to-head meetings.  Boening
has a pair of sub-12's as does Riley and Alicia Thomas.  Those three could easily finish
in any order.  Tara Franklin, Hannah Henderson, and Rana Conneway could be factors as well.

100 HH	1.  Kristen Loughry	Hurricane
	2.  Megan Tarr		Brooke
	3.  Ginny Webber	Musselman
	4.  Laquita Wilburn	Huntington
	5.  Miranda Reed	Hedgesville
	6.  Ellen Sparks	Cabell Midland
Loughry has set an All-Time State Best earlier this season in the meet at Morgantown.  She's
added three other sub-15 runs.  No one else in the field has been under 15.5.  Tarr has been
consistently fast with four runs between 15.75 and 15.79.  Webber has the next best series
and was under 16 at her Regional meet.  Wilburn actually has the 2nd best top time and has
two times better than the best of Tarr or Webber, and she scored a head-to-head win over
Loughry early in the season.  However, her consistency is questionable.  After those two
outstanding runs, she drops to a 16.28.  Reed finished ahead of Webber at their Regional,
but her overall series isn't quite as good.  Sparks gets a slight nod over Erica Leslie for
the last spot due to taking the higher spot at the Regional.  Lauren ASbury and Lauren
Huggins may also be factors.

300 LH	1.  Chelsea Carrier	Buckhannon-Upshur
	2.  Kristen Loughry	Hurricane
	3.  Kathy Dent		Parkersburg
	4.  Miranda Reed	Hedgesville
	5.  Megan Tarr		Brooke
	6.  Emily Kolas		John Marshall
This is another of my most anticipated races of the weekend.  Carrier has the best time
and is the defending champion.  Loughry was four times better than Carrier's 2nd best
and was 2004 champion.  Carrier clearly has better speed.  Loughry is clearly the better
hurdler.  In the 300's, speed is going to be more of a factor.  Carrier ran a 45.31 last
year, and Loughry has never gone under 46.  Edge Carrier.  Dent and Reed are very similar.
They both have two under 48 and another 3 under 49.  Dent's top two are slightly faster
than Reed's top two, so she gets the nod.  Tarr has three runs under 49, with two of them
coming in her last two meets.  Kolas only has one time to her credit, but it was at the
Regional, where she finished ahead of Tarr.  Samantha Jendras is also a threat but will
have to do it from the 1st heat.  Ellen Sparks has also been under 49.

4x100 M	1.  Jefferson
	2.  Hedgesville
	3.  Wheeling Park
	4.  Nicholas
	5.  Musselman
	6.  Morgantown
The relays are always tough because you don't know for sure who's going to be on them.
Jefferson will be running in the first heat, which could be a problem.  As a unit they
do have four runs under 52 seconds.  Hedgesville had 3 runs under 52 and was close
behind Jefferson at the Journal Invitational.  Wheeling Park had the fastest Regional
time of the bunch.  Things get very murky after that.  I've changed this one several times
as well.  Nicholas won their regional pretty handily and looked very good at the Gazette
Relays.  Musselman will be pulled through in the first heat by Jefferson.  They're one of
four teams to have been under 52.  Morgantown had a solid regional run and a strong overall
series of times.  Parkersburg South and Brooke could also make a lot of noise in this event.

4x200 M	1.  Morgantown
	2.  Jefferson
	3.  Wheeling Park
	4.  Brooke
	5.  Nicholas
	6.  Parkersburg
Morgantown turned in the fastest time of the year at their Regional meet.  Jefferson is the 
only team with more than one sub-1:50, and they have three of them.  Wheeling Park has been
just under 1:50 and just over 1:50 in their last two meets.  Brooke and Nicholas are very
close.  Brooke appears to be slightly better across the board, plus Nicholas will have to 
do it from the first heat, which is more of a problem in the 4x2 than in the 4x1.  Parkersburg
has the next best time, and they accomplished it at their regional meet.  Capital, South
Charleston, and Martinsburg are the most likely to come in and steal a spot.

4x400 M	1.  Morgantown
	2.  Elkins
	3.  Cabell Midland
	4.  Preston
	5.  John Marshall
	6.  Parkersburg
Morgantown has the fastest time and appears to have the fastest potential as well.  Elkins
isn't far off but will have their hands full with Cabell Midland.  I have Preston, John
Marshall, and Parkersburg each separated by 1 second, meaning they can obviously go any which
way.  I actually show Jefferson with the potential to go as fast as Preston, but they'll be
in the first heat, and they haven't really shown yet that they can do it.  Capital would be the
next most likely threat.

4x800 M	1.  Morgantown
	2.  Preston
	3.  Cabell Midland
	4.  University
	5.  Elkins
	6.  Parkersburg
Looking at Morgantown's lineup, I can see them going 9:45, and I don't think anyone else can
match that.  If Preston were to move Kaylyn Christopher to the 4x8 from the 4x4, they would
be looking at going under 9:40, but I'm going on the assumption that they'll leave her where
she is.  I actually show Cabell Midland with the possiblity of going 1 second faster than 
what I show Preston, but Preston has run faster on two occasions than Midland has, so I'm
going with them.  University can definitely go under 10:00, but I don't think they can catch
the other teams.  Elkins has an outside shot to go under 10:00.  I believe Parkersburg can
go at least 10:05.  Jefferson and Capital are also threats.

Shuttle	1.  John Marshall
	2.  Parkersburg
	3.  Brooke
	4.  Hurricane
	5.  Musselman
	6.  Cabell Midland
John Marshall is the only team to go under 1:07.  They have three runs under 1:07.5.  
Parkersburg had a better regional time than John Marshall, and a best time that isn't far off.
Brooke and Hurricane are very close.  Brooke has a slightly better series.  Musselman has a
better top time than Brooke or Hurricane, but that was their only run under 1:08.  Cabell
Midland has a single run under 1:08 but it did happen at the Regional.  Parkersburg South,
Martinsburg, Preston, and Hedgesville will be waiting for someone to stumble, which always
seems to happen.

L Jump	1.  Laquita Wilburn	Huntington
	2.  LaToya Buckner	Martinsburg
	3.  Jamie Kocher	Brooke
	4.  Jennifer Hoffman	Hedgesville	
	5.  Miranda Echard	Parkersburg South
	6.  Adrienne Stover	Woodrow Wilson
Wilburn has two jumps further than anyone else's best and four 16' jumps in all.  Buckner
has three 16' jumps to her credit.  Kocher and Hoffman each have a 16' jump, but Kocher
has a slightly better overall series of jumps and placed last year.  Echard and Stover
have the next best series of jumps.  Emma Arneson is the most likely to come in and take a
spot, though I have to admit...with the Long Jump, generally anything goes.

H Jump	1.  Kendall McCaugherty	Bridgeport
	2.  Natasha Redman	Hedgesville
	3.  Danielle Perkins	North Marion
	4.  Jenna Fogg		Bridgeport
	5.  Erin Dansey		Parkersburg
	6.  Jessica Hefner	Lewis
I was all set to give the nod to Redman until McCaugherty went back over 5'6 at the Regional
meet.  That put her back in the driver's seat.  That was her third 5'6 effort of the season.
Redman has a 5'6 and three 5'4's.  Perkins has three 5'4 leaps.  Fogg has a 5'2 and a pair
of 5'1's.  Dansey has a 5'2 and a pair of 5'0.  Hefner actually has a 5'3 on the books, but
that was on March 30th, and she hasn't been higher than 5'0 since.  Look out for Brittany
Wolford and Brittany Bays.

Shot	1.  Ashley Morrow	Cabell Midland
	2.  Fawn Washington	Capital
	3.  Megan Pratt		Parkersburg
	4.  Megan Scites	Cabell Midland
	5.  Terina Miller	Brooke
	6.  Molly Grove		Musselman
Morrow is the only one in the field to have a 38' toss, and she has 4 of them.  Washington
has three 37' tosses.  Pratt has four throws better than the next person's best.  Scites
has been consistently over 34'.  Miller has a 35' throw to her credit and the next best
overall series.  Grove has the next best series after that.  Adrienne Simpson and Shawna
Faulkner could also factor into the scoring.

Discus	1.  Fawn Washington	Capital
	2.  Brittany Fink	Capital
	3.  Kim Dent		Parkersburg
	4.  Ashley Morrow	Cabell Midland
	5.  Alisha Bowman	Cabell Midland
	6.  Samantha Guell	Hedgesville
Washington has three throws over 125'.  No one else has any.  Fink has three over 120', and
at least one head-to-head win over her teammate.  Dent has thrown consistently far, with 
five throws over 110'.  Morrow has a better series than Bowman, but Bowman has the further
top throw.  Guell is the only other thrower to hit 110'.  Her number two throw is only 90'
though, which means it's very possible for her to not even make the finals.  Molly Grove
and Rochelle Sperlazza are waiting in the wings if someone falters.

P Vault	1.  Kristen Loughry	Hurricane
	2.  Jessie Boggs	Parkersburg
	3.  Miranda Richards	Parkersburg
	4.  Brittany Pratt	George Washington
	5.  Caitlin Meeks	Parkersburg
	6.  Megan Loughry 	Hurricane
Loughry has at least five vaults over 10' and a pair of 11' vaults.  Boggs is the only other
vaulter with more than one 10' vault.  Richards has a 10' and has topped 9' three times.
Pratt has a 10' vault to her credit, but that's her only vault higher than 8'6.  Meeks is 
the only other vaulter to top 9'6.  Loughry has a 9' vault and four 8'6 vaults.  Alisha
Aronhalt is the only other vaulter in the field with a 9' vault.

High Point Predicitons
1.  Chelsea Carrier	Buckhannon-Upshur	40
2.  Kristen Loughry	Hurricane		36
3.  Kaylyn Christopher	Preston			31.50
4.  Miranda Richards	Parkersburg		20
5.  Fawn Washington	Capital			18