2006 State Meet Predictions

RunWV Predictions
Class AAA Boys

Class AAA Boys Individual Event Predictions

100 M 1. Marquel Ali Woodrow Wilson
2. Josh Brown Jefferson
3. Christian Edwards Cabell Midland
4. Jason Forrester Parkersburg
5. James Burress Wheeling Park
6. Jerry Kelly Fairmont Senior
This should be a really good race between Ali and Brown, possibly somewhat dependent on
Brown's health. I'm assuming that Brown will be fine. Ali has 5 electronic clockings
under 11 seconds. All Brown's times that are under 11 are hand-times. The adjustment
has been made, but I'm always going to be more skeptical of hand-times. I've seen too
many lousy timers over the years. Edwards is the only other one that's been under 11
at any time. The next three may be interchangeable. I went with Forrester due to his
having the best electronic time of the three. I really feel like there are about 13
guys that have a shot to place in this event.

200 M 1. Josh Brown Jefferson
2. Marquel Ali Woodrow Wilson
3. Andrew Carrier Buckhannon-Upshur
4. Christian Edwards Cabell Midland
5. Jason Forrester Parkersburg
6. James Burress Wheeling Park
This should be another tight battle between Brown and Ali. I'm going with Brown on this
one. He's the defending champion and has 400 Meter strength to help pull him through.
Carrier has the next best series of times. Forrester has a better series than Edwards,
but I just have a feeling on that one. Burress could knock them both down a notch. Look
for Shane Hall, Wes Eades, Zach Deal, and Terrell Martin to be in the mix as well.

400 M 1. Josh Brown Jefferson
2. Andrew Carrier Buckhannon-Upshur
3. Terrell Martin Hurricane
4. Vinnie Crumrine Wheeling Park
5. Travis Townsend Parkersburg South
6. Jordan Hosby Jefferson
Brown is the defending champion and has 3 runs better than anyone else's best (only two
if I were to adjust for FaT equivalents). Carrier has the next best series of times with
3 runs under 51 seconds. Martin has two runs under 51 and a very solid series of times
since moving into varsity competition. Crumrine also has a pair of sub-51's. Townsend
had an excellent Regional run. Hosby has the 3rd best top time of the group, but that
was in mid-April and his 2nd best run was a high 51. He could move up with a run like
he had earlier in the season. John Marshall's Mark Sampson could figure in as well. The
rumor is that Brown's injury has kept him from practicing for the past couple weeks. If
that's the case, then he may well drop this race as conditioning becomes a factor.

800 M 1. Corey Waybright Ripley
2. Travis Hamrick East Fairmont
3. Michael Bowers Hedgesville
4. J.D. Rappold Huntington
5. John Dorchinez Nitro
6. Jonathan Adkins Cabell Midland
Waybright was runner-up last year with a 1:57. He's the only AAA guy to have gone under
2:00 so far. Hamrick is the only other guy to have been under 2:01, and he has 3 runs
that are 2:02 or better. Bowers is the only other runner to have been under 2:02, and he
just missed being under 2:01. Rappold, Dorchinez, and Adkins could finish in just about
any order. Each has a pair of 2:02's with Dorchinez having the fastest top time of the
three, but the slowest 2nd best time.

1600 M 1. Josh Feather Preston
2. Mike Bowers Hedgesville
3. Corey Waybright Ripley
4. Nick Walsh George Washington
5. Matt Rouzer Musselman
6. David Bias Cabell Midland
Feather is the only one to have been under 4:30, and he has the best series of times.
Bowers has a history of performing well at the State Meet and has a pair of strong times.
Waybright is the fastest of the group and could take the title. He has the 2nd best top
time. Walsh has the 3rd best top time, but his 2nd best run drops off by 11 seconds. If
he has a run like he had at MSAC, he's a threat. If it's like the rest of them, he may
finish out of the placing. Rouzer has a pair of runs under 4:38. Bias has a slightly
better top time than Rouzer, but his second best outing is 4 seconds off Rouzer's. Kenny
Johnsont, Zach Messenger, Cass Meadows, and Ryan Beabout has all been under 4:40, and
Adam Woodruff has gone 4:40 and clocked a 4:37 last year. Any of them could slip in and
take a place.

3200 M 1. Josh Feather Preston
2. Travis Mersing Preston
3. Nick Walsh George Washington
4. Ryan Beabout Wheeling Park
5. David Bias Cabell Midland
6. Cass Meadows Cabell Midland
Feather is 8 seconds ahead of the field and is the only one with more than one run under
10:00. Mersing is the only other one with a sub-10 run. Walsh's best time and series
are both not as good as Beabout, but my mind runs back to cross Country where Walsh turned
in a 4th place finish. Beabout and Bias have similar series, but Beabout has been two
seconds faster. Bias did score a 2nd place finish in Cross Country and has a 4:35 mile,
so it's really not out of the question for him to win the whole thing. Meadows is the only
other runner to have been under 10:10. Five other guys have been under 10:20 and should
be considered threats to place.

110 HH 1. Andy Goldbaugh Wheeling Park
2. Wade Midkiff Cabell Midland
3. Matt Wilson Bridgeport
4. Dwight Holden Robert C. Byrd
5. Daniel Vogel John Marshall
6. Michael Ware Buckhannon-Upshur
This is one of my more anticipated races of the weekend. I feel like any of the top 4 could
score the win. Goldbaugh has the top time with a 14.81 electronic time. That's his only
sub-15 electronic time, though. Wilson has 4 sub-15 electronic times. The 300 Meter
Intermediate Hurdles could play a major role in this event. Midkiff will be the only one
of the top 4 that doesn't run them. The Gazette Relays shows that this can indeed make a
difference. Holden also has an electronic sub-15 and three others under 15.20. Vogel has
a better best electronic time than Ware and a slightly better overall series of times.
There are really about 12 guys that have realistic shots at placing in this event.

300 IH 1. Andy Goldbaugh Wheeling Park
2. Matt Wilson Bridgeport
3. Dwight Holden Robert C. Byrd
4. Andrew Carrier Buckhannon-Upshur
5. Blake Snodgrass Riverside
6. Josh Lindamood Parkersburg
This is another of the highly anticipated events. Goldbaugh has the best time and the
best top-end series. Wilson has more sub-40's than anyone else in the group. Holden's
best time is only 0.01 off Goldbaugh's, but he has no other runs under 40 seconds while
Goldbaugh and Wilson have 3 and 4, respectively. Carrier has also gone under 40. He
may be at a disadvantage by having to run in the first heat and not getting to go head-
to-head with the others. Snodgrass has 3 runs under 42. Lindamood has a pair under
42 and a best time that is better than Snodgrass. Wessley Walker, Allen Dick, and
Nick Watts could factor in as well.

4x100 M 1. Jefferson
2. Woodrow Wilson
3. South Charleston
4. Wheeling Park
5. Buckhannon-Upshur
6. Cabell Midland
Woodrow Wilson has a slightly better top time, but Jefferson has been more consistently
fast. South Charleston has the next best series, slightly better than Wheeling Park.
Buckhannon-Upshur has an ace in the hole with Andrew Carrier having an open event. I'm
betting they put him in this one. That could conceivably move them even higher. Cabell
Midland only has the 8th best time of the group, but was faster at the regional than the
rest of the field, and I believe they have a move they can make that will make them even
faster. Buckhannon and Midland could both possibly move into the top 3.

4x200 M 1. Jefferson
2. Woodrow Wilson
3. Wheeling Park
4. George Washington
5. Brooke
6. Parkersburg
Jefferson has 3 runs better than anyone else's best, though those all happened April 20th
or before, and Josh Brown may or may not have been on them. Woodrow Wilson has 4 runs
under 1:34, two of which were under 1:33. Wheeling Park has a better top time than Woodrow
and could move up. George Washington actually has the 2nd best top time but has the
disadvantage of running in the first heat. Brooke is the only other team to have been
under 1:33. Parkersburg has the next best electronic time.

4x400 M 1. Brooke
2. Cabell Midland
3. Wheeling Park
4. Jefferson
5. Ripley
6. John Marshall
Brooke doesn't have anyone who qualified in the open 400, yet they can put together a unit
that averages under 52. I'm not sure how they're doing it, but they're doing it. It looks
like Cabell Midland can put together a 3:28 unit. Wheeling Park has been faster than
Midland and could take the spot. It looks like Jefferson can go 3:29 or so even without
Josh Brown, but they'll be running from the 1st heat and likely won't be pushed hard enough
to achieve it. The next four teams are all pretty close. It looks like they can all go
about 3:31. Ripley has the next best time fo the group and has been under 3:34 three times.
John Marshall had a very strong Regional run. Parkersburg South and Fairmont Senior are
the other prime contenders. If Shawn Coe is available and healthy for Parkersburg South,
they become a top 4 threat.

4x800 M 1. Cabell Midland
2. East Fairmont
3. George Washington
4. North Marion
5. Preston
6. John Marshall
This will be a great way to open the Class AAA meet. I came up with the top 5 all being
within one second of each other. I feel like Midland can put together the strongest unit.
They haven't been quite as fast as three of the others, but I think it's there. East Fairmont
got the better of North Marion at the Regional. George Washington got the better of Midland
at the Gazette Relays. Preston was close behind East Fairmont and North Marion at the
Regional. This one should be a lot of fun. John Marshall has the next best time and actually
has a better top time than John Marshall. Parkersburg South has some upward mobility here
as well. I suppose there's an outside chance that Buckhannon-Upshur could put Andrew Carrier
in this event. That could put them in the mix as well.

Shuttle 1. John Marshall
2. Wheeling Park
3. Cabell Midland
4. Nicholas
5. St. Albans
6. Buckhannon-Upshur
John Marshall edged Wheeling Park at the Regional. Cabell Midland won't be running in the
same heat as John Marshall and Wheeling Park, but in the Shuttles that can be an advantage
with fewer arms and elbows flying all over the place. Nicholas county has been strong all
season, and they're the only team to have recorded four times under 60 seconds. St. Albans
and Buckhannon-Upshur each have a pair of sub-60 runs. Woodrow Wilson is the only other
team to have gone under 60 seconds and could be a factor. There's a chance Carrier could
be added to this event as well. That could significantly upgrade Buckahnnon. He runs the
300 Hurdles, so there should be some semblance of hurdling form.

L Jump 1. Cody Servetas Buckhannon-Upshur
2. Quinn Law Morgantown
3. Ryan Ramsby Cabell Midland
4. Michael Oliver Brooke
5. Jordan Jackson Martinsburg
6. Justin Famoso Wheeling Park
Servetas is the only one with multiple 21' jumps, and he has 3 of them and missed a 4th by
1/4". Law has four 20' jumps with three of them being 20'6 or better. Ramsby and Oliver
each have four 20' jumps as well, with Ramsby having a slightly better series. Jackson
has the 2nd best top jump, but only has one other jump over 20'. Famoso has the next best
jump and just missed having a second 20' jump by 1/2". There are five other jumpers who
have topped 20' once this year.

H Jump 1. Matt Wilson Bridgeport
2. Josh Gains Parkersburg South
3. Jordan Swiger Robert C. Byrd
4. Tawon Wallache George Washington
5. Clyde Armstrong Capital
6. Matt Deel John Marshall
Matt Wilson is the only jumper with more than two 6'4 jumps, and he has four of them. Josh
Gains has a pair of 6'2 jumps and placed 3rd last year. Swiger has a 6'6 and a 6'4 to his
credit, but also has some 5'10's and 5'8's. The only jumps I've seen for Tawon Wallace
and Clyde Armstrong are their regional jumps, but they've shown that they can go 6'2 at
UC Stadium when it's important. Matt Deel got 6'2 for the first time at his Regional Meet.
Michael Oliver, Jordan Jackson, and Todd Offenberger also have 6'2 jumps to their credit,
and Oliver has four 6'0 jumps to go along with it.

Shot 1. Travis Coleman Robert C. Byrd
2. Keith Branch Buckhannon-Upshur
3. Brandon Reinhart South Charleston
4. Robbie Fisher Wheeling Park
5. Justin Adkins Parkersburg
6. Sam Romano Bridgeport
Travis Coleman's 5th best toss is over 4' better than anyone else's best. For anyone but him
to win would be a major upset. Branch has the 2nd best throw and the next best series
of throws. Reihhart has the next best series and the 3rd best throw. Fisher hasn't hit 50',
but he's been over 48' three times. Adkins has been past 50' but hasn't been over 48' at any
other meet. Romano has the next best series and placed 3rd last year. Josh Gains and
Brandon Flint have each had 48' tosses.

Discus 1. Keith Branch Buckhannon-Upshur
2. Travis coleman Robert C. Byrd
3. Tyler Coffman Cabell Midland
4. Justin Adkins Parkersburg
5. Ryan Godwin Buckhannon-Upshur
6. Steve Apgar Cabell Midland
Keith Branch's 5th best toss is over 4' better than anyone else's best. He's the only guy
to have gone over 160', and he's done it twice. However, he hasn't been there since April
11th. Coleman is the only other thrower to have passed 150', and he won the event last year.
Coffman is the only other thrower with more than one 140' toss. Adkins has a better overall
series than Coffman, but his top end isn't quite as good. Godwin has the next best series
and is the only other guy to exceed 140'. Apgar gets the nod for 6th based on a strong
Regional throw. Ricky Hunt and Zachary English could figure in as well. English has the
6th best throw of the group, but his best two tosses came in early April.

P Vault 1. Jeremy James St. Albans
2. Justin Famoso Wheeling Park
3. Bryan Church Robert C. Byrd
4. Lance Gower Preston
5. Aaron Dunlap St. Albans
6. Jimmy DeMarco Robert C. Byrd
James has the best series with at least 5 vaults of 13' or better. Famoso has the top single
vault of the field. Church has the next best series. Gower has a 13'6 vault to his credit
but has only topped 12' twice. However, those have been in his two most recent meets. Dunlap
is the only other vaulter with a 13' vault to his credit and placed 3rd last year. DeMarco
has a slightly better series than Scott McMillan. Zack Breakiron and Ryan Miller also have
12'6 vaults to their credit.

High Point Predicitons
1. Josh Brown Jefferson 30.50
2. Matt Wilson Bridgeport 24
3. Andy Goldbaugh Wheeling Park 23
4. Marquel Ali Woodrow Wilson 22
5. Josh Feather Preston 20.50