AA Boys Individual Event Predictions 100 M 1. Josh Natali Magnolia 2. Zjaque Douglas Weir 3. Chris Hampton Bridgeport 4. Jason Koon Lewis 5. Pat Galapon Shady Spring 6. Matt Bennett Summers This race should be fairly entertaining with at four or five potential winners. This event is probably Natali's most vulnerable event but we didn't pick him to win any events last year and he burned us (although we did think he'd win high point). Lesson learned. Douglas, Hampton, Koon and Galapon could all possible challenge Natali. Douglas has a number of good times this year and beat Natali in the regional. Hampton and Koon had the two best regional marks with Hampton (who placed 5th last year) edging Koon. Galapon finished a close second to Chris Fleming in a meet that we didn't receive times for so we know he is fast as well. Bennett qualified well in regionals and has a number of good times this year. Weaver of Lewis, Johnson of Ritchie and Kocher of Magnolia are among a host of others that could claim a medal. 200M 1. Josh Natali Magnolia 2. Jason Koon Lewis 3. Pat Galapon Shady Spring 4. Zjaque Douglas Weir 5. Tommy Johnson Ritchie 6. Matt Bennett Summers Natali's a half second better than the field in this event and easily had the best regional time. He is also the defending champion in the event. Koon is the only other runner with more than one mark under 23 (with 2). Galapon has the best series of turned in times for the event. Douglas had the second fastest time out of regionals. Johnson is a wild card here. He ran a legitimate 22.6 hand time at the LKC event and if he can do that again, he'll probably take second. Bennett ran well in regionals and had the 5th best time among qualifiers. Phillips of Shady Spring and Likin of Keyser are right on the cusp as well and should contend. 400M 1. Josh Natali Magnolia 2. Chris Rose Shady Spring 3. Adam Benford Ravenswood 4. Matt Arnold Roane 5. Andy Helmstetter Frankfort 6. John Natow Liberty Harrison Natali is also the defending champion in this event and will go under 50 if pushed (as he was last year). No one else has gone below 51 this year, but Rose has been very close. Of the remaining runners, Benford has 3 times under 51 and only Helmstetter and Arnold have been in that range. Arnold has run mid 51's in the past and Helmstetter edged below 52 in the regional. Natow has the best time among the remaining runners, but King of Richwood and McDougal are likely to be right with him. 800M 1. Chris Snell Ravenswood 2. Scott Gemberling Grafton 3. Justin Bossert Roane 4. Adam Benford Ravenswood 5. Chris Rose Shady Spring 6. Josh Sheets Scott Snell's 156.1 at LKC was a big wake up call. Seldom are mid season times seen in that range. However, Gemberling and Bossert have been in the 158 range already this season as well with Gemberling hitting that mark a number of times. Much of what happens in this 800 race is predicated on what we feel might happen in the 1600. Gemberling has proven he can run a 4:19 and then run a 1:58 so a hot mile shouldn't hurt him. If he goes for the record and gets it, the effect could be draining. If Snell goes with Gemberling and notches a sub 4:20 (or even 4:25), he too will feel the effect and it could cost him. Bossert and Benford however are facing the same problem. All could place in the 1600 and it could cost them. The winner will likely be the runner who runs the smartest 1600 (meaning goes for place, not for time). We are guessing that Benford will not run the 1600 since it is very close to the 400 race and that will allow him to be placed on the 4x400 relay team. If he runs the 1600, he could finish lower or out of the running. Rose and Sheets will be the freshest. We like Rose's speend and gave him the edge over Sheets. McDougal of Grafton and King of Richwood will also be players. McDougal has 201 potential and in a tired field, might really benefit. King placed 3rd in the event last year (the only returning placer) but suffered an injury that will likely keep him from being a factor. 1600M 1. Scott Gemberling Grafton 2. Chris Snell Ravenswood 3. Andrew Benford Ravenswood 4. Justin Bossert Roane 5. Woody Snoberger Frankfort 6. Josh Wagner Liberty Harrison If strategy is chucked out the window and everyone goes for the gusto, we have a potential state record in the making. However, that could cost their teams points in the team race so they may be running for places and not times. Gemberling went below 4:20 this year and Snell has been at 4:20. If Adam Benford runs this event, we would likely pick him 3rd, but to attempt to maximize points, we have guessed they may move him to the 4x4 and save him for the 800 (where fresher legs could add several spots of upward potential.) Instead, we picked younger brother Andrew Benford 3rd (by dropping one runner from the event, it also helps to keep team mates from cannabilizing points from each other). Bossert is just a few clicks behind either Benford. Snoberger and Wagner have the next best times in the event with Snowberger having a decent showing in last years meet. Snell took 3rd and Gemberling 4th in last years event. Jayson Laffere of Ritchie and Jason Sheets of Scott also have shown the capability to place in this field. 3200M 1. Scott Gemberling Grafton 2. Chris Snell Ravenswood 3. Justin Bossert Roane 4. Andrew Benford Ravenswood 5. Woody Snoberger Frankfort 6. John Riffle Grafton Gemberling has by far the best 3200 mark in any class this year and should be able to cruise into first. Snell has also gone in the mid 9:30's. They are the top two returning runners by placing 3rd and 6th respectively last year. Bossert has a slightly better best time than Benford and we like the finishing speed that Bossert can bring. Snoberger is the only other runner under 10:00 in this field this year. Hartman of Keyser and Smutko of Scott could also grab a spot. 110H 1. Josh Natali Magnolia 2. Brad Keys Winfield 3. Andrew Dawson Sissonville 4. Matt Arnold Roane 5. Jarran Shockley Keyser 6. Dustin Mutschelknaus Liberty Harrison Natali is also the defending champion in this event and could make a rare 4 individual event sweep. This event is not a given however as Keys has the fastest time recorded in the class this year and placed second in the event last year. Dawson ran an excellent regional and beat Arnold so we picked him 3rd. Shockley and Mutschelknaus also recorded good regional times with Shockley given the edge based on a better series of times recorded throughout the season. Forsythe placed 6th last year and could very easily grad a spot once again. 300H 1. Brad Keys Winfield 2. Zach Linville Ritchie 3. Matt Arnold Roane 4. Matt Bennett Summers 5. Brett Barker Ritchie 6. Andrew Dawson Sissonville Keys and Linville took 1st and 3rd last year with Keys having at least 5 marks better than anyone else in the fields best time this year. Linville has a better series than Arnold who posted a slightly better best time. Bennett ran in the mid 41's during the year and a repeat of that time will have him well into the placers. No one else has gone under 42 this year with Barker hitting 42 exactly in regionals. Dawson hasn't been under 43 this year, but ran excellent at states last year in the mid 41's and could move up the list. Forsythe of Oak Glen and Pritt of Winfield are also good possibilities to place. 4x100 1. Shady Spring 2. Winfield 3. Bridgeport 4. Lewis 5. Keyser 6. Weir Shady Spring has the only sub 45 mark in the class this year and always seems fast. Winfield has the best series of times in the state this year and has been very consistent. Bridgeport had the top regional time and could also contend for first. Lewis and Keyser and very close with Keyser taking the regional but Lewis has a better series of times. Weir run poorly at regionals but a hand timed 45.0 early this year show they have potential. If they run to that potential, they could win it. Point Pleasant and Magnolia should also be in the mix. 4x200 1. Shady Spring 2. Keyser 3. Lewis 4. Richwood 5. Ritchie 6. Tyler Consolidated Shady Spring is the only team to go under 1:33 this year (twice) and has the 3 best times in the class. Keyser and Lewis have gone under 1:34 this year and Keyser took the regional and has a better overall series of times. Richwood and Ritchie have gone under 1:35 this year with Richwood looking better at regionals. Ritchie might be able to stack their team and move up the list a few spots (if they choose to possible take someone out of an open event). Tyler Consolidated had the 4th best regional time and the top time this year among remaing teams. Point Pleasant, Winfield and Magnolia also appear to be contenders for a spot. 4x400 1. Roane 2. Magnolia 3. Shady Spring 4. Tyler Consolidated 5. Winfield 6. Ravenswood When it comes to the relays, we try to guess who will be running since teams often load up at states for possibly the first time all year. That is often why you will see picks that seem to be out of order with regional and best times. With that said, we went with Roane. We are guessing they will pull Arnold from the Shuttle Hurdles (in which placing seems iffy) to make a 4x4 team that will be hard to beat (in addition, we are assuming that they will leave Bossert on the team). Magnolia is always strong and could take the top spot as well. Shady Spring ran away with their regional and should be able to shave some additional seconds from their time. Winfield and Tyler Consolidated should be able to improve their times a little and Winfield has the flexability of moving some runners out of open events to help strengthen their team. That brings us to Ravenswood. If they are fully loaded with the elder Benford, a healthy Balis and Snell, they are likely champs. But Snell and the elder Benford can only run 3 events. We're guessing Snell will do 3 opens and the 4x800 so we pulled him out. Balis has been banged up and didn't run on the team at regionals. We guessed that Adam Benford will be pulled from the 1600 and placed in this event. Even with a team that may be missing two of it's best members, they can still place and possible move up several spots. Grafton seems to be the team best positioned to grab a spot among other contenders. 4x800 1. Ravenswood 2. Grafton 3. Ritchie 4. Scott 5. Roane 6. Libety Harrison See the the 4x4 above for comments about loaded teams vs. regional times, etc. Ravenswood will likely fully load the team and hold off Grafton. If they choose to pull Snell or Benford from the team to run them elsewhere, they would only drop a spot or two. Grafton looks to be just a few seconds behind Ravenswood and should take the top spot if Ravenswood downloads even just a little. Ritchie has a very strong core of runners making up their team and looks like a solid third. Scott also has a good make up of runners and has continued to improve throughout the season. If Roane chooses to let Bossert run this event instead of the 4x400, push them up one or two spots. Even without Bossert, they are almost sure to place. Liberty Harrison is the only other team under 8:40 so far this year although Keyser has not been far off. Shuttle 1. Winfield 2. Keyser 3. Ritchie 4. Bridgeport 5. Magnolia 6. Sissonville Winfield has the best time in the state this year and the best series of times. Keyser is the only other team that we belive to be under 59 this year. Bridgeport's regional clocking is rumored to have been incorrect (although they were still pretty fast). Regardless, they should be right with Ritchie either way since Ritchie may have the opportunity to load their team to run a little faster if they choose. Magnolia has a 59.2 clocking this year which would make them a contender for the title but that team probably included Natali. If they were to pull him out of the 100 for this event, push them up into the top 3 without question. Sissonville is the only other team under 61 this year and looks like a placer. Roane could also contend if Arnold stays in this event and doesn't run the 4x400. H Jump 1. Adam Mason Berkeley Springs 2. Matt Fischer Bridgeport 3. Matt Wilson Bridgeport 4. Scott Sears Webster 5. Matt Wright Tyler consolidated 6. Tony Belt Berkeley Springs The first 3 have all jumped 6'6 this year. Mason is the top returning placer (4th) and has the most jumps over 6'4. Fischer has one more jump than Wilson over 6'4. Sears placed 5th in last years event and was the top regional jumper at 6'4. Matt Wright has been very consistent and jumped 6'2 at his regional. Belt is the only other jumper over 6'4 in the field. Franklin of James Monroe cleared 6'2 at his regional and should contend as well. Zach Linville of Ritche has 3 6'2 jumps to his credit, but he may be pulled into one of Ritchie's relays in an attempt to maximize points. L Jump 1. Chris Hampton Bridgeport 2. Zach Linville Ritchie 3. Nick Ellison Richwood 4. Tony Belt Berkeley Springs 5. Jeremy Lynch Shady Spring 6. Tanre Franklin James Monroe Hampton has the longest three jumps in the field this year and is the top returning placer (4th). Linville is the only other jumper to have gone over 21' this year. Ellison has been jumping well lately and captured his regional. Belt also captured his regional and if he matches his top jump could contend for the title. Lynch as two marks over 20' as does Franklin (with Lynch having a better series of jumps). There are a ton of jumpers in the upper 19' range and any could place as this event is always hard to sort out. P Vault 1. Michael Manning Ritchie 2. Dustin Mutschelknaus Liberty Harrison 3. Jason Alvis Roane 4. Raymond Powers Bridgeport 5. Shane Lucas Roane 6. David Haws Bridgeport Manning was given the edge of Mutschelknaus due to more 13' jumps, but Mutschelknaus has the best jump in the class at 13'6. Alvis has a nice series of jumps of at least 12'0 and no remaining jumpers have cleared that height once. Powers has more jumps over 11' than the rest of the field. Lucas has been improving and recently cleared 11'6. Haws is among a host of jumpers to have cleared 11'0 this year, but has done it on a more consistent basis than remaining vaulters. King of Bridgeport has gone over ll'6 this year and could easily place as high as 4th. Discus 1. Tristian Crookshank Liberty Raleigh 2. Brady Henger Ritchie 3. Aaron Gurskey Weir 4. Travis Emch Magnolia 5. Kevin Hudnall Point Pleasant 6. Reid Pierce Sissonville Crookshank has tossed the best mark in the class this year and has 4 marks over 150'. Henger (6th last year) has more marks over 150' and the two should be close again. Gurskey has also gone over 150' and is in the running for the title. Emch is another thrower with 150' to his credit. Hudnall has the best series of remaining throwers with Pierce and Ryan Booth of Weir not far back. Andrew Morgan of Liberty has also been near 140 and could grab a slot. Shot 1. Travis Emch Magnolia 2. Tristian Crookshank Liberty Raleigh 3. Brady Henger Ritchie 4. Derek Hardman Roane 5. Kevin Hudnall Point Pleasant 6. Steve Barrett Grafton Emch has the top throw in the class and 5 tosses over 52'. Crookshank is the only other 50 thrower and also has five marks over 50'. It would be hard to imagnie a winner that is not one of these two. Henger has the next best throw (in the 49's) and has a number of excellent marks. Hardman and Hudnall should duke it out for the next spot with both in the mid 48's and Hardman having a slightly better series. Barret has the best remaining throw (47's) but Andrew Morgan of Liberty Harrison is also in that range. High Point Predicitons 1. Josh Natali Magnolia 40 2. Scott Gemberling Grafton 30 3. Chris Snell Ravenswood 28.5 4. Brad Keys Winfield 24.5 5. Chris Hampton Bridgeport 18.5 5. Justin Bossert Roane 18.5