AAA Boys Individual Event Predictions

100 M	1. Scott Mayle		Philip Barbour
	2. Antwan Sorrells	Woodrow Wilson
	3. Willie Whetstone	Riverside
	4. Rusty Taylor		Riverside
	5. Joe Mosley		St. Albans
	6. Ivan Hawkins		Parkersburg South

Mayle appears to be the fastest man in the state and easily won
the Gazettes against much of the same competition.  Each of the
other guys on the list have all been under 11 at least once using
accu track.  Sorrells has 5 times under that magic 11 mark and
seems to be there consistently.  Whetstone has also been 
consistently fast and edges teammate Taylor who both have great
familiarity with the Charleston track.  Taylor placed 5th last 
year in this event and won the MSAC meet against many of the same
guys.  Mosley could go much higher as could Hawkins.  Baisden of
BU is also lurking with several hand times below 11.00 and could 
easily claim one of the spots.

200M	1. Scott Mayle		Philip Barbour
	2. Willie Whetstone	Riverside
	3. Antwan Sorrells	Woodrow Wilson
	4. Ivan Hawkins		Parkersburg South
	5. Rahman Wilcox	Jefferson
	6. Sloan Baisden	Buckhannon Upshur

Once again, we pick Mayle, but this time, it's much closer.  
Sorrells and Whetstone are right there.  Whetstone has been 
electronically timed under 22.19 3 times this year and Sorrells
has been there only once.  Hawkins is the only other runner with
more than one time under 22.61 (3) so he looks good for 4th.  After
that, the field gets much more crowded.  We choose Wilcox and 
Baisden since they had the most times under 22.8.  Lee, Falduto
could also be in the mix with a 22.2 hand clocking by Falduto
being the 4th best in the state this year.
	
400M	1. Rico Greenhowe	Capital	
	2. Ivan Hawkins		Parkersburg South
	3. Antwan Sorrells	Woodrow Wilson
	4. Michael Weber	Huntington
	5. Rahman Wilcox	Jefferson
	6. Josh Santrock	Hurricane

Greenhowe has seemingly left the field and could be chasing an 
all time top ten mark.  Hawkins is the only other runner under 50
and leads the rest of the field by about 1/2 second.  Sorrells
has had a number of mid 50's clockings and should be able to 
break 50 with his speed.  Weber is strong in the event and 
should be able to go into the low 50's at least and shouldn't 
fade at the finish.  Wilcox has also gone into the mid 50's and
also has the nice 200 speed.  Santrock has the same type speed 
and has been low consistently.  Faludto placed 5th in the event
last year, but will likely need to go faster than he has ever
gone to go in again.  His speed makes it a good possibility.  
Clise and Page are the next best bets based on times.  
	
800M	1. Michael Weber	Huntington
	2. Rico Greenhowe	Capital
	3. Justin Johnson	Capital
	4. Justin Bossert	Roane
	5. Forrest Boggess	Parkersburg South
	6. Brad Dodson		Martinsburg

Webber has run a 1:57 this year, has great 400 speed and won the
crazy fast region 3 race.  Greenhowe's 400 speed makes him very
interesting and he could give Webber a great chase.  Johnson
has beaten him every time this year, but Greenhowe has been closing
on both of them.  Bossert and Boggess both ran full bore in 
regionals and probably can't go much lower.  Dodson could also
possibly go 1:59.  Richard Kitching has been extremely strong in 
this event, but we picked him slightly out of the running.  Both
he and DeVault will have a grueling mile that may take them both
out of it.  If Kitching runs below 4:20, it may zap him.  If he
runs in the mid 4:20's, he could go into the top 4.

1600M	1. Tyler DeVault	East Fairmont
	2. Richard Kitching	Cabell Midland
	3. Ben Lukowski		St. Albans
	4. Keith Rand		Morgantown
	5. Chris Walsh		George Washington
	6. Brad Dodson		Martinsburg

Tyler Devault has gone under 4:20 this season and is the only
runner to do so.  Kitching has the best speed in the group and
Lukowski is nearly ledgendary already.  We think that speed will
win out in this battle and Kitching should be very fresh for this
event.  All could go under 4:20.  It should be a great race.  Not
far back appears to be Rand and Walsh who have both gone under 
4:27.  Of the remaining runners, Dodson is the fastest by 3 
seconds and his speed makes him a threat to move several spots
higher.  After that only Cooke is under 4:39 so far this year.
	
3200M	1. Ben Lukowsi		St. Albans
	2. Keith Rand		Morgantown
	3. Tyler DeVault	East Fairmont
	4. Chris Walsh		George Washington
	5. Greg Cooke		Cabell Midland
	6. Dave Ferrell		Parkersburg

Lukowski's top time is nearly 15 seconds better than the nex top 
time.  Of course, it looked that way last year as well when 
Sabatino burst into the picture and has now become one of the best
young runners in America.  Rand defeated DeVault head to head, 
but DeVault has better 800 speed and was the state CC champ so
he could have a real gem under his belt.  Walsh appears to also
have the ability to go as high as second.  After those, Cooke 
and Ferrell ar the only two runners to break 10:00 and Cooke has
done it 3 times.  Thomas Hobbs and Ryan Smith could jump in if
others falter.
	
110H	1. Matt Liston		Preston
	2. Mike Farry		St. Albans
	3. Chad Jordan		Cabell Midland
	4. Matt McDaniel	Hurricane
	5. Chris Nix		Parkersburg South
	6. Ryan Keeney		East Fairmont
 
It appears that the top 4 (at least) have the ability to win this
event.  Liston was picked because he seems to be very consistent
this year and has had the best series of times turned into RunWV.
Farry, Jordan and McDaniel an Nix ran in the same region (what 
a race that was).  McDaniel came out on top there and jumped
into the picture as a very serious contender.  However, that is 
the only time we have for him below 15.20 so we moved him down
the list a tad.  Kenney didn't have a great regional but has had 
an excellent season making him our pick for 6th.  Evan Taylor, Ryan
Vucilek and 'Bo' Bolton (who placed 5th last year) could also 
easily place.  This event could have a big impact on who takes home
the team trophy.

300H	1. Evan Taylor		Keyser
	2. Brent Jarrell	St. Albans
	3. Ryan Vucilek		John Marshall
	4. Matt McDaniel	Hurricane
	5. Chad Jordan		Cabell Midland
	6. Nick Parrish		North Marion
 
With no clear favorite this year, this hurdle event should be 
exciting and may have a huge impact on who wins the state title 
as well.  Taylor has the fastest time this year and more times 
at 41.30 or better than any other hurdler.  Jarrell's 40.55 
regional pushed him head of the rest of the pack and Vucilek is 
the only other runner to break 41 so far this year.  McDaniel 
also had a very strong regional and the 4th best time in the 
state this year.  Jordan and Parrish are the only other runners 
to go under 42 more than once this year with Jordan being very 
consistent this year.  If Parrish is in top form, he could move 
up the list nicely.  Chad Grant, Josh Stroup, Aleka Car, Seth 
Fletcher and Grant Paugh have also broken 42 this year and 
could place.
	
4x100	1. Woodrow Wilson
	2. Parkersburg South
	3. Riverside
	4. Buckhannon Upshur
	5. Ripley
	6. Jefferson

Woodrow Wilson has the top time this year and the top regional 
time.  Parkersburg South has been very fast as well and very 
consistent.  Riverside should also be right there and if any of 
these 3 teams botch a hand off in the least, it could easily change
the outcome.  Buckhannon Upshur seems to be a couple of steps back
but ahead of the rest and a great day could see them challege.
Ripley has a group of very fast runners that has a shot at moving up
but Jefferson should be right there as well.  St. Albans and 
Huntington are the only other teams to break 45 twice this year and
there might be a load up that we have missed for a big surprise for
everyone but that team.  With groupings this tight, places are 
easily changed.

4x200	1. Parkersburg South
	2. Greenbrier East
	3. Riverside
	4. Hurricane
	5. Jefferson
	6. Ripley

South is the only team to break 1:32 twice this year and should be
considered the favorites.  East is the only other team to break
1:32 and their regional time leads us to believe that they are
legitimate.  Riverside has two great sprinters to work off of and
could move into contention, but will have to find two seconds to
do so (regions was likely the first time they have run as a unit).
Hurricane, Ripley, Jefferson and Woodrow Wilson have also gone 
under 1:34 this year.  We are guessing that Sorrells will run the
3 open events and the 4x1 and that leaves WW a little weaker but
likely still in contention for some points.  If he does run this
relay, they could place high.  Hurricane has the next best time 
on the list and Jefferson won their regionals and might be able to
finish higher than we have picked.  Ripley will be right there as 
well and could jump several spots higher.

4x400	1. Capital
	2. Huntington
	3. Cabell Midland
	4. Martinsburg
	5. Ripley
	6. Lewis

When it comes to the relays, we try to guess who will be running 
since teams often load up at states for possibly the first time 
all year.  That is often why you will see picks that seem to 
be out of order with regional and best times.  With that said, 
Capital seems to be well ahead of the field and has some great 
individual 400 runners.  Huntington has gone 3 seconds faster than
any other team and won a very hot regional.  Midland has some 
horses in the stable and didn't lay it all out at the region so
we know there is several seconds there.  Martinsburg won their
regional and along with Ripley, should be able to push at or below
the 3:30 mark.  Lewis isn't far off from that mark and their 
runners should be fresher than other teams and that should give 
them the edge they need.  South Charleston, Buckhannon Upshur and
Parkersburg could also factor (at minimum).

4x800	1. Capital
	2. Martinsburg
	3. Cabell Midland
	4. East Fairmont
	5. George Washington
	6. Preston

See the 4x4 above for comments about loaded teams vs. regional times,
etc.  East Fairmont has the fastest time so far this year and we
think they can go faster, but...  We think that if the other squads
stack their teams (such as Greenhowe and Johnson on Capital), that
they can cut their times significantly.  If we guessed right about
who will run on the teams, what their peak times might be (we 
admit that this involves a lot of guessing), Capital seems to come
out on top by several seconds, followed by Martinsburg and then
a close one between Midland, East Fairmont and George Washington.  
Preston seems another few seconds behind those and South Charleston,
Parkersburg South and Hedgesville should all be in the mix as well.
Where Midland and South fall into this mix will help decide the title
as their places could move several spots up for South and down for 
Midland.  

Shuttle	1. Buckhannon Upshur
	2. St. Albans
	3. Parkersburg South
	4. Cabell Midland
	5. Keyser
	6. Hurricane

This event is always tough to call.  Each team has four chances to
foul (8 counting trials) and has to jump 110 meters of 
hurdles each along the way.  Every year, major competitors get gunned
down for false starting, leaving to early or someone crashes into 
a heap.  Like most of the relays, several of the teams vying for 
the state title are in the mix and it could play a major role.  BU
is a second ahead of the pack and has the best 4 times in the 
state this year.  St. Albans and South had very good regionals and
also have several marks under 60 this year.  Midland also has
mulitple marks under 60 this year to go with a great regional. 
Hurricane has a great chance to be right on top of the battle for
second (or first as explained above!) but have their regional time
not backed by another great run.  Keyser fell at their regional and
still ran a 60.30 so we don't know exactly what they are capable of.
They may be as good as second in this field and we felt they needed
to be in the mix.  North Marion and John Marshall could place as 
well with North Marion having some very good individual hurdlers. 

H Jump	1. Scott Mayle		Philip Barbour
	2. Mike Farry		St. Albans
	3. Josh Boone		Preston
	4. Chris Pettrey	Robert C. Byrd
	5. Mike Winkfield	Greenbrier East
	6. Josh Hall		Parkersburg South
	
With Rader's ankle injury keeping him and his 6'10 leap out of the
picture, it becomes an event that has no clear favorite.  Mayle
has cleared 6'4 at least 5 times this year.  Farry has the best
jump of the qualifiers at 6'6, but that is his only jump over 6'2.  
Boone has 4 6'2 jumps his year and placed last year as a freshman.
We like the fact that he placed last year and has had a consistent
season.  Pettrey has beaten Mayle and is one of only 3 jumpers to
hit 6'4 this year.  Winkfield placed last year as well, but only 
has one jump over 6'0 this year.  If he jumps 6'4 like he did at 
states last year, he could win it.  Hall is the only other jumper
in the field to have cleared at least 6'2.  6'0 might place this 
year and that would open the final places to a qood quarter of 
the remainder of the field.

L Jump	1. Scott Mayle		Philip Barbour
	2. Matt Cox		Roane
	3. Brock Stotts		Ripley
	4. Darnell Davis	Capital
	5. Matt Battin		Parkersburg South
	6. Rocky Manchin	North Marion

Mayle appears to have this one sewed up.  It is a luxury to be a 
foot off of your best and still be a foot ahead of the field.  He
can challenge the all time mark if he hits his marks and doesn't
try to conserve for his numerous trials and finals.  Cox is the 
only other jumper in the field with more than one leap over 21'.
Stotts placed high at states last year and has been jumping his
best marks the last few meets.  Davis has the 2nd best 5th jump 
(yeah, we track a lot of stuff) and he consistently goes at least
20 1/2 feet.  Battin had a very good regional and beat some 
very good jumpers.  Manchin has gone over 20' 4 times and any of these
jumpers could take the second spot.  Darryl Jones and Justin Wood
have both gone over 21' this year, but haven't jumped within a foot
of their best mark at any other meet.  The potential is obviously 
there.  Alex Lee could also place and is the only other jumper over
20' this year (at 20.065).

P Vault	1. Chris McGhee		Nitro
	2. Robert Kozul		East Fairmont
	3. Adam Albaugh		Wheeling Park
	4. Ryan Rader		Parkersburg
	5. Jason Alvis		Roane
	6. Sonny Dye		Parkersburg South

With Rader's injury, McGhee becomes a clear favorite.  If Rader is
moderately heathy, he could take second here and even injured, 
should place.  Kozul has consistently been clearing 13' an beat
Albaugh in the regionals so we picked him despite Albaugh's 13'6 
best jump.  To top if off, Albaugh's pole has come up missing.    
Alvis took 4th as a freshman last year and did well 
on the big stage so we picked him next out of the 12'6 group and 
gave and edge to Dye for the last spot.  Scott Burdette and Joe 
Bowie also have cleared 12'6 this year and could go as high as
4th.

Discus	1. Matt Morris		Woodrow Wilson
	2. Chris Boggs		St. Albans
	3. Zack Morrison	Cabell Midland
	4. Ken Sanders		Musselman
	5. Adam Newman		Buckhannon Upshur
	6. Andrew Starsick	North Marion

Morris is going for his 3rd title in a row, but has been beaten by
Boggs this year and needs to throw his best.  Boggs is nearly 10 
feet better than the next competitor.  Morrison hasn't thrown quite
as far as Sanders this year, but had a great regional and seems to
be peaking.  Newman is the only other thrower to have gone over 150' 
from the remaining throwers.  Starsick placed last year, but 
should see a strong challenge from Adam Wieble and Velmere Greene. 

Shot	1. R.J. Coleman		Robert C. Byrd
	2. Zack Morrison	Cabell Midland
	3. Adam Weible		Cabell Midland
	4. Matt Morris		Woodrow Wilson
	5. Josh Frye		Logan
	6. Ryan Moore		Hedgesville

Coleman has been dominant this year and his regional toss was the
states best this year.  He's been over 50 feet at least five times
with 3 of those over 53.  No one else has gone over 52 feet and 
only Morrison has gone over 50'.  Morrison's 52+ foot toss did
make it so that Coleman must throw his best to get his second
consecutive title in the event.  Weible has distanced himself from
the field on his last two throws.  Morris has two throws over 49'
but must get hit that or close again to get his spot on the list.
Frye had a good regional backed up by some solid throws during the 
season.  Moore was down a bit at region, but has had a consistent 
year.  Starsick popped off the 4th longest throw of the year at
regionals, but his next best over 2 feet lower.  If he does what
he did in regions, he should place.  Pat Young is also a top
contender and placed in states last year.  A number of other 
throwers haved topped 48 and could slide into a place.

High Point Predicitons
1. Scott Mayle		Philip Barbor	40
2. Rico Greenhowe	Capital		23
3. Antwan Sorrells	Woodrow Wilson	22.5
4. Mike Farry		St. Albans	18
T5.Willie Whetstone	Riverside	17
T5.Tyler DeVault	East Fairmont	17