AA-A Boys Individual Event Predictions

100 M	1. Jamie Moore		Berkeley Springs
	2. Chris Hampton	Bridgeport
	3. Josh Bowman		Ravenswood
	4. Chris Fleming	Greenbrier West
	5. Pat Galapon		Shady Spring
	6. Jeff Honaker		Sissonville

This event is wide open.  Not quite as wide open as last year, 
but the winner could be nearly any of the above.  Moore and 
Hampton had excellent regionals with Moore getting the slight nod
for his better single race best this year.  Bowman has been hand
timed at 11.1 this year so don't count him out.  Fleming just 
started running for the high school one meet before regionals and
who knows what he has under the hood.  Galapon was right behind him
at regionals.  Honaker has the fastest time this year in AA-A but
doesn't have a single other race under 11.55 that we could find.  
If he does the 10.97 again, he should win.  Roger Kupfer had an
excellent region, Nick Young was the most steady of the other 
competitors and Jason Smith of Buffalo has turned in some good times. 
More than any event this year, everyone who qualified has a 
legitimate chance of placing.  

200M	1. Shane Bosley		Berkeley Springs
	2. Josh Natali		Magnolia
	3. Chris Fleming	Greenbrier West
	4. Jarrod Pittman	Mount Hope
	5. Rance Everly		Oak Glen
	6. Jeff Nuzzolo		Berkeley Springs

This too should be a very interesting race.  Bosely has some very
fast accu track times to go up against Natali's 22.5 AA-A best.  
Bosely has been rounding into shape nicely recently and may be 
able to take it to the next level.  Fleming is once again a 
wild card.  The frosh could win it and there is no mistaking his
speed.  Pittman placed last year and performs well at the state 
meet.  Everly should be right there as well.  Nuzzolo has the next
best times of any competitor.  Nick Young has one time under 22.8,
but no other times under 23.4.  If he is back below 22.8 (or even
under 23), he should place.  
	
400M	1. Josh Bowman		Ravenswood
	2. Josh Natali		Magnolia
	3. Rance Everly		Oak Glen
	4. Jarrod Pittman	Mount Hope
	5. Chris Fleming	Greenbrier West
	6. Ben Kelley		Williamstown

Bowman's even faster than his 49.7 and he may be only behind Greenhowe
regardless of class.  Natali edged Everly at regionals and we went
with that finish again but Everly could take the spot easily.  Pittman
won the event last year and burned us.  He could so so again, but to 
do so, he'll need to be in the 49's (about a second faster than he
has ever gone).  We have only Flemings regional 52.2 to go on and
we don't know how often he has ran this event.  With his speed, a 
drop of a second or two would not be out of the question.  Kelley
is the only other runner to have gone under 52 this year.  Schoolcraft
of Pocahontas ran well at Gazettes and jump over several other 
runners.  
	
800M	1. Chris Snell		Ravenswood
	2. Matt Quinet		Magnolia
	3. Seth Hauser		Oak Glen
	4. Ashton Nelson	Independence
	5. Michael King		Richwood
	6. Adam Benford		Ravenswood

Snell is the only runner in the class to go under 2:00 this year 
and has splited 3 additional sub 2's that we have witnessed.  Quinet
ran a sub 159 at states last year, but we think that the 1600 race
may keep him from having the gas to keep up with Snell.  Hauser 
has a ton of low times this year and may be poised for a breakthough.
Nelso and King have been having a great battle recently for 
southern supremecy.  Nelson's been to states before so we'll give 
him the slightest of edges.  Benford has run a great time this year
and could place much higher, but again, we're guessing that the 
mile may drain him of his kick.  This event could unfold very
interestingly as Chris Herron is out there somewhere and he ran a
1:58.52 to take 2nd in last year's state meet.  We don't know if
he's injured, been ill or laying back but if healthly, he will be
a major factor in the race.

1600M	1. Justin Simpson	Oak Glen
	2. Matt Quinet		Magnolia
	3. Adam Benford		Ravenswood
	4. Scott Gemberling	Grafton
	5. Josh Sheets		Doddridge
	6. Chris Herron		Liberty Raleigh

Simpson is about 5 seconds faster than anyone else but can't have an
off day as the field behind him is very competitive.  Every runner
behind him probably has more speed with Quinet, Benford and Herron
having sub 2 800 speed.  Quinet has been below 4:30 and Benford is
at the door.  Gemberling has edged defending champion Sheets recently
and perhaps has an edge.  If Sheets runs the race he did last year,
he could move way up the list.  Ditto for Herron who took 2nd in
last year's race.  If Herron is not fully up to speed, Adam Raper
and Josh Simpson are the two most likely to step in.  We are 
guessing that Snell will pull from this event to run the 4x400 to
make that group a title contender.  If he runs the mile, slide him
in with those above.  It should be a great race.
	
3200M	1. Justin Simpson	Oak Glen
	2. Josh Sheets		Doddridge
	3. Scott Gemberling	Grafton
	4. Josh Simpson		Oak Glen
	5. Chris Snell		Ravenswood
	6. Woody Snowberger	Frankfort

Simpson's top time is 25 seconds better than anyone else has ran
so far this year and he has at least 5 times better than anyone else.
Sheets is the defending champion and likely has enough in this event
to fight off the rest of the field.  The low 30's are not out of 
question for 2nd place and some runners will likely drop 10 or more
seconds from their PR.  Gemberling is just a step behind Sheets and
could easily step up.  Josh Simpson has 3 times better than the next
person in the field.  Snell has the speed to make this interesting
for perhaps anyone but Justin Simpson, but hasn't been below 9:55 
this year.  Snowberger is the only other runner under 10:00 and no
other runners have gone under 10:07.  If Chris Snell doesn't run 
the 2 mile, Isaac Andrick (placed last year) and John Riffle could 
also slip in and have the ability to run sub 10's and could place
anyway.
	
110H	1. Brad Keys		Winfield
	2. Josh Natali		Magnolia
	3. Shane Bosley		Berkeley Springs
	4. Joe Ielapi		Bridgeport
	5. David Decker		Lincoln
	6. Jeff Bennett		South Harrison
 
Keys has the fastest time this year and more times below 15 than
anyone else in the class.  Natali is strong and also has beaten
Liston who we picked to win the AAA meet.  Bosley looked to have
the event won last year before falling so all 3 could wind up on 
top.  Ielapi is steady and improving to lead the rest of the field.
Decker and Bennett should make 4 for 4 from region 2.  Bennett will
need to run at least as well as he did at regionals or hurdlers
like Belancic, Neely, Forsythe and Clagg will be howling at his 
feet and in hot pursuit.

300H	1. Brad Keys		Winfield
	2. Shane Bosley		Berkeley Springs
	3. Zack Linville	Ritchie
	4. Justin Clagg		Wayne
	5. Joe Ielapi		Bridgeport
	6. Matt Thalman		Wheeling Central
 
Keys and Bosley should stage a great battle here with the mid 39's
probably needed to win.  Keys has the best times this year, but 
Bosley is the defending champion.  Linville has by far the 3rd best
time this year, but will need to overcome his inexperience at the
state meet level and return to his LKC form.  Clagg, Ielpai and 
Thalman should be close for the final 3 spots.  With them being 
placed according to their best times and series of times this year.
All are improving and could catch Linville.  With 42's very likely
to place at states this year, at least 6 more runers have a good shot
at placing.
	
4x100	1. Berkeley Springs
	2. Williamstown
	3. Sissonville
	4. Bridgeport
	5. Wheeling Central
	6. Oak Glen

Berkeley Springs has posted the two best times in this event and
have 3 guys that we picked to place in the 100/200 so we know they
are fast.  If they get their handoffs down, they should win.  
Williamstown is the only other team to break 45 this year.  
Sissonville has Honaker and Smithson to build off on and could well
push not only Williamstown, but Berkeley Springsa as well.  
Bridgeport has the next best time and wheeling Central won their
region and seem to be picking up speed at every turn.  Oak Glen
has the 5th best time in the state this year.  Winfield and 
Tyler are just a step back and could be there as well.  

4x200	1. Oak Glen
	2. Tyler Consolidated
	3. Ravenswood
	4. Ritchie
	5. Wheeling Central
	6. Bluefield

Oak Glen has been under 1:34 3 times this year and has the top 2 
times.  Tyler has also been under 1:34, but will need every inch
to compete with Oak Glen and stay ahead of the rest of the field.
Ravenswood has been under 1:35 4 times and Ritchie is the only 
other team to do it once.  Wheeling Central's accu tracked regional
time was just .01 slower than Bluefield's hand timed regional so
took Wheeling Central.  If Ritchie doesn't run the same squad that
posted the low times earlier this year, Mount Hope will be the 
first team wating and could place regardless.  

4x400	1. Ravenswood
	2. Oak Glen
	3. Williamstown
	4. Doddridge
	5. Magnolia
	6. Winfield

When it comes to the relays, we try to guess who will be running 
since teams often load up at states for possibly the first time 
all year.  That is often why you will see picks that seem to 
be out of order with regional and best times.  With that said, 
Ravenswood seems to have what it takes to edge past a great Oak
Glen team who seems well head of the field.  If Chris Snell runs 
the mile and 2 mile, he won't be running this and that might be
enough to knock them down a few notches.  We're guessing he runs
this (but don't know).  Williamstown has a stable full of very
solid 400 runners and could also win if things go perfectly.  
After that, the field bunches up quite a bit and Doddrige, Magnolia
and Winfield seem to be able to put together the next best teams. 
Wheeling Central has ran some great times and they might have more
available to them than we can find (it wouldn't be the first time)
and should also challenge.  As always some team will probably load
up for the first time and burn us, but there is no way to predict
that (yet!).

4x800	1. Ravenswood
	2. Williamstown
	3. Grafton
	4. Oak Glen
	5. Doddridge
	6. Ritchie

See the the 4x4 above for comments about loaded teams vs. regional 
times, etc.  Ravenswood has two runners that could place in the
open and look strong.  Williamstown has the best time this year
and has 4 very good runners on their team.  Grafton is similar in
that they have 4 good runners, but no one likely to place in the
open.  Oak Glen has Hauser to help them into 4th.  Doddridge may
be able to come close to Oak Glen and Ritchie looks to be another
several seconds back.  Scott is a wildcard here.  Fully loaded 
against tough competition may bring out a nice result for them.

Shuttle	1. Magnolia
	2. Winfield
	3. Sissonville
	4. Tyler Consolidated
	5. Bridgeport
	6. Meadow Bridge

This event is always tough to call.  Each team has four chances to
false start (8 counting trials) and has to jump 110 meters of 
hurdles each along the way.  Every year, major competitors get gunned
down for false starting, leaving to early or someone crashes into 
a heap.   Magnolia has the best time this year and won their 
regional.  Winfield and Sissonville had a great regional battle and
Winfield might be able to clip Magnolia.  Tyler is the only other
team under 1:01 this year.  Bridgeport is the only remaining team
under 1:02 this year.  Meadow Bridge won their regional handily 
and may be able to move higher.  Oak Glen, Lincoln and Ritchie
have also been under 1:03 this year and a 1:02 may place.

H Jump	1. Eric Belancic	Wheeling Central
	2. Stephen Zirilli	Richwood
	3. Derek Underwood	Doddridge
	4. Dave Gsell		Tucker
	5. Adam Mason		Berkeley Springs
	6. Matt Fischer		Bridgeport
 
Belancic has 3 jumps at 6'6 or better.  No one else has been that
high.  Zirilli could come close.  Underwood has cleared 6'4 more
than any other jumper and Gsell got 6'4 at the region.  Mason has
jumped higher than 6'0 3 times but has no jumps over 6'2.  Fischer 
and Matt Wrigth are the only other jumpers to clear 6'2 more than 
once.  Fischer's jumps have come later in the season.  Jeffery
Honaker of Sissonville has also cleared 6'2 this season.  

L Jump	1. Chris Hampton	Bridgeport
	2. Tony Flinn		Williamstown
	3. Aaron Long		Magnolia
	4. Stephen Zirilli	Richwood
	5. Jacob Lilly		Gilmer
	6. Daniel Watson 	Buffalo

Hampton has the longest jump of the season and Flinn has the most 
21+ foot jumps.  Long has one of the ten best leaps of all time in
class AA-A at last year's state meet but hasn't been healthy this
year.  Any could win if they are healthy.  Zirilli has began to 
jump consistently well.  Lilly has two jumps over 20 feet this year,
they only remaining jumper to do so.  Watson won his regional and
we don't have many results for Buffalo this year.  He could go 
higher or lower.  Nick Morgan and Zane Bodnar have gone over 20'
this year and Josh Goad and Steven Mitchell were close.  

P Vault	1. Nick Morgan		Ritchie
	2. Dustin Mutschelknaus	Liberty Harrison
	3. Justin Gaiser	Tyler Consolidated
	4. Wesley Billups	Williamstown
	5. Darren Turner	Grafton
	6. Josh Wiethe		Wheeling Central

Morgan has cleared 13' 3 times, the only survivor of regionals to
clear that height.  Mutschelknaus is the only other jumper to have
gone over 12'6.  Gaiser and Billups have both jumped 12'0 with 
Gaiser having better second jumps.  Turner and Weithe are the only
other jumpers to have cleared 11'6 this year and are close with 
Turner's higher jumps coming more recently.  David Chipps, Adam
Petryszak and Willie Sarine have all cleared 11'0 this year and 
that might be what it takes to place.

Discus	1. Ryan Burdette	Poca
	2. Zac Hall		Williamstown
	3. Tristian Crookshank	Liberty Raleigh
	4. Eric Reed		Ravenswood
	5. Brady Henger		Ritchie
	6. Brad Wilt		Doddridge

Burdette's regional toss of 163'5 put him ahead of the field and one
inch over the state record if he can repeat the throw.  The field
is very strong this year.  Hall was 3 last year and has more throws
over 150' than anyone in the field.  Crookshank has the 2nd best 
throw of the group.  Reed has been throwing well and on the average
has thrown slightly better than Henger.  Wilt has the next best 
throw and series of throws.  Travis Shreve, Tony Flinn, Travis Emch
and Aaron Barnette have all gone over 142' this year and could
place as well.

Shot	1. Brad Wilt		Doddridge
	2. Travis Emch		Magnolia
	3. Ryan Burdette	Poca
	4. Tony Flinn		Williamstown
	5. Nick Henderson	Paden City
	6. Tristian Crookshank	Liberty Raleigh

Strangely enough, Of the 5 defending champions in AA-A Wilt is the
only one we picked to repeat.  He has at least 5 throws over 51'
and only Emch has even crossed 50' this year.  Burdette has 5 throws
over 47' and no one else has more than 2.  Flinn and Henderson are
very close with Flinn having a few more long tosses on the year.  
Crookshank is the next farthest thrower with nearly 1/2 on the rest
of the field.  Steve Barrett is the only other thrower over 48'
this year.  

High Point Predicitons
T1.Shane Bosley		Berkeley Springs26.5	
2. Josh Natali		Magnolia	26.5
3. Justin Simpson	Oak Glen	23
4. Brad Keys		Winfield	22.25
5. Josh Bowman		Ravenswood	20