Meet: State Meet Predictions Date: For May 26-27, 2001 Location: Charleston, WV Boys Individual Event Predictions 100 M 1. T.R. Dues South Charleston 2. Scott Mayle Philip Barbor 3. Eddie Whitehead South Charleston 4. Terris Baldwin Riverside 5. Chris Spencer Parkersburg South 6. Dino Cardinali Wheeling Park Dues ran the best regional mark and looks to be tops going in. Mayle has been steady this year and has clocked a number of fast times. Whitehead has been injured and the fact that we pick him this high when we know he's slowed, tells you what we think of his speed. If healthy, he and Dues would be about even. All three placed last year with Whitehead taking 3rd, Mayle 5th and Dues 6th. Terris Baldwin also has some fast clockings this year at speeds which Spencer and Cardinali may have trouble getting to, so we took him 4th. Spencer and Cardinali ran nearly identical regionals, but Spencer has a lot of state meet experience that should give him and edge. Jonathan Bonecutter could also slip in this very fast field. 200M 1. T.R. Dues South Charleston 2. Scott Mayle Philip Barbour 3. Chris Spencer Parkersburg South 4. Terris Baldwin Riverside 5. Eddie Whitehead South Charleston 6. Dino Cardinali Wheeling Park Dues and Mayle duked it out at the Gazettes with the stronger Mayle overtaking him by .01 at the line. Dues has had a few weeks to get prepared and we think his superior speed will give him a slight edge. Spencer took 2nd last year in what turned out to be a very slow finals and we think that he will again survive the numerous heat races and finals well. Baldwin (5th last year) has gone faster than Spencer and could beat him but will have ran more heat races than Spencer and we think that may be the difference. Whitehead's (6th last year) injury again made us nervous. His regional clocking in the 200 wasn't near as encouraging as his 100, but if he was just qualifying, eased up and is healthly, he's right in the mix with Mayle and Dues. Cardinali is ahead of the rest of the pack by over a 1/2 second making him an easy choice for 6th. After that, it is wide open. 400M 1. Chris Spencer Parkersburg South 2. Richie Gibbs University 3. Rico Greenhowe Capital 4. Andrew Morgan Martinsburg 5. Jason Battin Parkersburg 6. Clint Falduto Wheeling Park Spencer's regional time left little doubt about the favorite in this event. He has an outside shot at breaking the record in this event and should be an encouragement to sprinters everywhere to try to step up a distance. Gibbs has numerous times under 50 this year so he looks like a good pick for second. Greenhowe (4th last year)hasn't gone as fast as Morgan this year, but he has turned a 49 in the past and we think he'll edge Morgan who has also gone under 50. Battin is the only other runner under 51 in the field and Falduto the only other runner under 51.5 so they were easy picks for 5th and 6th. Rahman Wilcox has the next best FAT time and could place as well. 800M 1. Michael Webber Huntington 2. Jason Battin Parkersburg 3. Zach Beckett Cabell Midland 4. Rico Greenhowe Capital 5. Brandon Johnson Nitro 6. Seth Lawson Morgantown The great region 3 race should continue here. Only .01 seperated Webber and Battin in the region and Beckett has the ability to go 1:58 as well. Battin has better 400 speed, but we're going to go with Webber who won the regional. Beckett's participation in the 1600 make drain enough from him to hold him back from beating the other two but he is from Cabell Midland so maybe not. Greenhowe and Johnson should also go under 2:00 with Greenhowe's speed giving him the edge but Johnson took 3rd last year and might break 1:59. We took Lawson 6th based on his regional performance, but another 5 or 6 runners have a shot at that spot as well. 1600M 1. Zach Sabatino George Washington 2. Ben Lukowski St. Albans 3. Zach Beckett Cabell Midland 4. Richard Kitching Cabell Midland 5. Justin Rogers Cabell Midland 6. Jeff Gessler Jefferson This should be a great race. The top 3 could very well go under 4:20. Sabatino beat Lukowski in the last head to head race and has a little more speed. Beckett will in it as well and if they let him stay close and it comes down to a sprint, Beckett can use his speed to take the victory. Kitching and Rogers can likely handle anyone else in the field if they run what they are capable of. If the front two get away from Beckett, he may let the other Midland runners go and conserve for the 800 since it won't cost his team any points. Gessler has the next best time in the field and we gave him the edge over Stephen Hiser but Hiser has a better series of times so don't be surprised if he's in there. 3200M 1. Ben Lukowsi St. Albans 2. Zach Sabatino George Washington 3. Justin Cox Huntington 4. Richard Kitching Cabell Midland 5. Justin Rogers Cabell Midland 6. Stephen Hiser University Lukowski pretty much won the meet early in the year when he started clocking times under 9:30. He'll have more competiton in this race than he's faced yet this year but likely won't be pushed to hard. Runners 2-5 will have probably run the 4x800 meters giving Lukowski another advantage. Sabatino has the next best time in the state and his team might be out of contention in the 4x800 by the time he gets the baton so we picked him second. If his team is in competion and he goes for it on his leg, it might cost him. However, since the runners right behind him face the same situation he'll probably come in ahead of them anyway. Cox knows this will be his only chance at an individual medal and we think he'll give everything he has and come up with a good time. Kitching and Rogers could go as high as second if everything goes right. Hiser has gone faster, but doesn't have the speed of the Midland runners. A bunch of other runners could be very competitive in this event including Jeff Gessler, Shane Ruggles (4th last year, but out of action for a good portion of the year) and Brad Kohler. Kohler has the added advantage of not running the 4x800 and that may get him past Hiser and the others. 110H 1. Tony Shade Robert C. Byrd 2. Scott Kautz South Charleston 3. Aaron McCartney Parkersburg South 4. Matt Liston Preston 5. Josh McCallister Nitro 6. William Bolten Jefferson Shade has been dominant in this event and was 2nd at last year's meet. Kautz and McCartney have also been under 15 this year with Kautz (who easily won his regional) getting the nod for 2nd. Liston has been steady this year but a false start at Gazette's left us wondering what he could do on that track. McCallister had a good regional and Bolten had the 6th best time. Chris Nix placed 5th in the event last year, but only at region did he run a good time. Keep an eye on him, Josh Wade and Andy Kucish. 300H 1. Scott Kautz South Charleston 2. Tony Shade Robert C. Byrd 3. Jared O'Malley Cabell Midland 4. Andy Kucish North Marion 5. Shaun Marshall South Charleston 6. Justin Beckner Point Pleasant Kautz is a full second ahead of anyone else this year and is the clear favorite. However, if Shade (2nd last year) puts everything together, he could win as well. O'Malley had a very good regional to put himself in line for a great finish. Kucish was 5th last year and also went under 41 at regionals. Marshall is a question mark. His 40.57 top mark this year is 3rd best in the field, but he hasn't really approached that mark any other time. If he runs that, he could move up. If he runs what he did at regionals, he won't place. We're guessing somewhere in between. Beckner has also gone under 41 and looks like a solid choice to take a place. Brent Jarrell, Todd Busick, Evan Taylor and Nick Parrish also have a chance to slip in if they can clip a few tenths off their PR's. 4x100 1. South Charleston 2. Riverside 3. Parkersburg South 4. Wheeling Park 5. Woodrow Wilson 6. Brooke South Charleston has the best time this year and the top regional mark. The Dues/Whitehead led team should win again barring exchange difficulties. Riverside has also ran well this year and seem a clear choice for second. South had an excellent regional that was better than anyone else has ran this year. Wheeling Park was given the edge over Woodrow Wilson and Brooke with Cardinali as the closer. Wilson has gone faster this year, but didn't perform great at regionals. The remainder of the field is pretty tight and it would be hard to guess who might slip in if one of the above falters. 4x200 1. South Charleston 2. Riverside 3. Parkersburg South 4. Wheeling Park 5. Captial 6. Cabell Midland Again, South Charleston is pretty far ahead of the pack if they are healthy and don't goof up. Riverside looks like a clear second but if Spencer runs this relay at states, they could challenge the top two teams. Wheeling Park seems well ahead of the rest of the field and we gave Capital and edge over Cabell Midland based on regional times but don't be surprised if Midland moves up. They had a great trials at regionals before leaving for prom. 4x400 1. Capital 2. Cabell Midland 3. Wheeling Park 4. University 5. Huntington 6. Parkersburg When it comes to the relays, we try to guess who will be running since teams often load up at states for possibly the first time all year. That is often why you will see picks that seem to be out of order with regional and best times. With that said, we have taken Capital to be first based on what we know their runners can do. Cabell Midland is second for the same reason. Wheeling Park and University could both insert great runners (Gibbs and Cardinali) into their teams but we don't know if they will do the event at states or if they did at regionals (we're guessing no on both). Huntington and Parkersburg round out our picks with similar regional times but Huntington appears to have more upward potential. Nitro, South Charleston, Martinsburg and Hedgesville all have a shot at placing as well but we don't know enough about their relay teams to move them into a place. 4x800 1. Cabell Midland 2. Huntington 3. Parkersburg South 4. Nitro 5. Morgantown 6. Hedgesville Midland might be able to push the 8 minute barrier, but won't unless someone is close. More likely to go about 8:10 and the last legs will conserve for later races. Huntington has the states second best time and should be able to hold off Parkersburg South and Nitro as Region 3 appears to be ready to take the top 4 slots. Nitro had the top regional time, but we feel the others have a good deal of upward potential. Morgantown could also push faster and might join the 3 ahead of them. Hedgesville doesn't have any stars, but runs together as a team with solid legs and looks good for 6th. Jefferson and George Washington may be in it as well. Shuttle 1. North Marion 2. Parkersburg South 3. Cabell Midland 4. East Fairmont 5. Keyser 6. Buckhannon Upshur North Marion has the best time in the state this year. South and Midland staged a great regional battle and any of the 3 could win. East Fairmont and Keyser have the next best times and we gave Buckhannon Upshur the edge over St. Albans based on their number of good times this season. Parkersburg could also play a role in this event. H Jump 1. Chris Taylor Parkersburg South 2. Scott Mayle Philip Barbour 3. Ryan Rader Parkersburg 4. Brandon Wiley North Marion 5. Chuck Braithwaite Hampshire 6. Evan Taylor Keyser Chris Taylor looked to be head and heels over everyone else with a 6'9 jump early in the season but he hasn't gotten that high again and the rest of the field got a little higher. He's still clearing 6'4 or better on a more consistent basis than anyone else so he's still the favorite, but he must be at the top of his game or he might not even place. Mayle has great talent and we have placed him second. His regional was poor, but he has had a number of good jumps this year. Rader was the only regional performer to clear 6'6 and could win it as well. Wiley has a number of jumps at 6'4 and 6'2. Braithwaite (5th last year) has cleared 6'5 this year but doesn't have a great second height. Evan Taylor is among a group of other jumpers who have cleared 6'2 but will take him on athleticism. Josh Boone of Preston popped off a 6'3 at regionals but that was the first time he was on the radar. Mike Winkfield and Jeff Scott have also cleared 6'2 this year. L Jump 1. Scott Mayle Philip Barbour 2. Tony Shade Robert C. Byrd 3. Patrick Miller Hedgesville 4. Richie Gibbs University 5. Brock Stotts Ripley 6. Darnell Davis Capital Mayle (3rd last year)has gone over 23' several times this year and many look for him to use his speed to break the LJ record that has stood since 1978. Shade has jumped 22' 1/2 feet this year and Mayle will have to get in a good jump to beat that mark. Miller has also neared 22' feet this year and could take second as well. Gibbs and totts have both gone over 21 feet with Gibbs having the better mark of the two. No one else stands out but we'll go with region 4 winner Davis who proved he could jump under pressure with a 6th place finish last year. Other over 20' 1/2 feet this season include Billy Horton, Ryan Rader and Darryl Jones. P Vault 1. Ryan Rader Parkersburg 2. Chris McGee Nitro 3. Mike Teel Parkersburg South 4. Stephen Patton University 5. Sonny Dye Parkersburg South 6. Chad Showen Parkersburg South Rader has began to get 13' on a regular basis and become the favorite. McGee has the fields only 13'6 leap but Rader has move over 13. Teel has also gone over 13' and could win as well. This event is very important to South's championship hopes. They could pick up a bunch more than predicted or lose a bunch. Either way, it will have a big impact on the final outcome. Patton placed 6th in last year's post meet event and has gone 12'6 this season. Dye and Showen are the only other jumpers to go that high this year. A half dozen other jumpers have cleared 12' in an event in which six inches make all the difference - between placing and not placing between a championship and second. Discus 1. Matt Morris Woodrow Wilson 2. Brad Morris Parkersburg 3. Ken Sanders Musselman 4. Jarrett Thompson St. Albans 5. Zach Morrison Cabell Midland 6. Justin Carr Point Pleasant Matt Morris, the defending champion has throws that are more than 10' better than anyone else. Brad Morris has thrown farther and more consistenly than Sanders and we gave him and edge for 2nd. Thompson, Morrison and Carr have all thrown within a foot of each other with their order decided by the number of good throws each has. No one else has came within 8' of any of these throwers so we don't know who would hop in if one of the six has an off day. Shot 1. R.J. Coleman Robert C. Byrd 2. Michael Otzenberger Hurricane 3. Jon Spencer Ripley 4. Stephen Berg Hedgesville 5. Zach Martin Fairmont Senior 6. Eric Frye Point Pleasant Coleman (4th last year) has a throw nearly a foot further than anyone else. Otzenberger has been over 51' and if he hits that again, he could challenge Coleman. Spencer is the only other thrower over 50'. Berg is peaking at the right time. Martin had a good regional and we gave him the edge over Eric Frye who has thrown a little further. Only Matt Morris has gone over 47' aside from the top 6 so they look like good bets. High Point Predicitons 1. Scott Mayle Philip Barbor 34 2. Tony Shade Robert C. Byrd 26 3. T.R. Dues South Charleston25 4. Scott Kautz South Charleston20.5 5. Chris Spencer Park South 19.5