Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. Your region may be depending on you.
Region II: The addition of Lewis County to this Region gives it a little leeway in advancing four teams. One team can come incomplete, and it can still get four teams out. Jefferson is clearly the class of the Region. Hampshire looks pretty solidly in 2nd. Elkins has a slight edge over Hedgesville for the 3rd spot. Musselman will look to play the role of spoiler and steal on the spots. I show them only 12 points behind Hedgesville for the 4th spot. Individually, the current top 10 includes Brandon Doughty, Austin Rigsby, Justin Miller, Ben Proudfoot, Sam Munnis, Cody Marsh, Nathan Whitacre, Joshua Davis, Tim Loughran, and Nick Dyer. Runners within 60 points of the top 10 that aren't on an expected advancing team that will be trying to steal a spot are Musselman's Cody McDonald (11th), Bridgeport's Todd Edgell (12th), and Martinsburg's Nic Bauer (15th). There are 44 ranked runners in Region II. There are 29 runners in this region that would be expected to advance from Region III.
Region III: It looks like this Region will advance three teams. In order to do so, Nicholas County and Princeton have to get five to the line. They have the numbers but haven't always gotten five to the starting line. George Washington looks like the top team in the Region with St. Albans and Greenbrier East holding the 2nd and 3rd spots. Two of Greenbrier East's ranked runners haven't run in October. If they are out of this meet, that would put Capital very much in the mix for the 3rd spot. Individually, the current top 10 includes Andy Bailey, Garrett Boggs, Luke Teel, Chris Light, Matt Searls, Adam Carte, Blake Woodruff, Chris Pratt, Mason Haynes, and Quinn Doyle. Runners within 60 points of the top 10 that aren't on expected advancing teams include Capital's Sean Conner (14th), Woodrow Wilson's Drew Sauls (17th), and Nitro's Zach Douglas (18th). There are 19 ranked runners in Region III.
Region IV: This Region should advance three teams. Cabell Midland is easily the top team. Winfield looks like they should easily be 2nd. Parkersburg South appears to have the edge for 3rd. Hurricane and Huntington will look to sneak into a qualifying spot but will likely have to run exceptionally well to pull it off. Individually, the current top 10 includes Jacob Burcham, Preston Whitney, Caleb Bowen, Ryan Smith, Patrick Jividen, Ashton Smith, Joseph Kirtner, Michael Niemann, Garret Lynch, and Tyler Salmons. Runners within 60 points of the top 10 that aren't on an expected advancing team include Parkersburg's Josh Harmon (11th), Spring Valley's Jonathan Blatt (12th), Huntington's Evan Jenkins (17th), Hurricane's Aaron Peal (19th), Huntington's Sam Smith (20th), and Spring Valley's Morgan Ferguson (22nd). There are 55 ranked runners in Region IV. There are 35 runners in this region that would be expected to advance from Region III.
Region II: This Region should advance three teams. However, either Lincoln or South Harrison must get five to the starting line for this to happen. Both have run short of five on several occasions and if both run short Thursday, it will cost this region an advancement. Berkeley Springs and Grafton appear to be very solid advancers with Berkeley showing a 6 point advantage over Grafton. The 3rd spot is tight. I show Philip Barbour getting the 3rd spot by just three points over Frankfort. It could certainly go either way. Individually, the current top 10 includes John Mundey, Drew Woodford, David Rhodes, Jake Wise, Chris Toompas, Riley Freeman, Cory Yarrington, Darian Martz, Zack Tennant, and Charles Anderson. Runners within 60 points of the top 10 that are not on an expected advancing team include Frankfort's Brad Miller (11th), Frankfort's Trae Miller (13th), and Keyser's Taven Rohrbaugh (15th). There are 24 ranked runners in Region II.
Region III: It looks like this Region will advance three teams. Richwood is easily the strongest in the field. Oak Hill appears to be the 2nd best. PikeView looks like they're the number three in this Region. Shady Spring will be in the mix. Individually, the current top 10 includes Jordan Weitzel, Derrick Chaffin, Issac Cales, Andrew Shaffer, Emmet Rogers, Cameron Davis, Charles Bard, Scotty Treadway, Wes Stowers, and Lucas Gardner. Runners within 60 points of the top 10 that aren't on expected advancing teams include Shady Spring's Tyler Kosut (12th) and Shady Spring's Aaron Halstead (13th). There are 17 ranked runners in Region IV.
Region IV: It looks like this region will only advance two teams. If for some reason Buffalo and Point Pleasant don't get five to the line, only one team would advance. Scott appears to have the advantage in the Region with Ravenswood looking like the 2nd best team. Charleston Catholic will certainly be in the mix, though. Individually, the current top 10 includes Matt Knowlton, Chase Nelson, Forest Reed, Will Shaffer, Ryan Honeycutt, Chris Jones, Ben Schindler, Marcus Black, Ryan Lockhart, and John Daly. Runners within 60 points of the top 10 that aren't on teams expected to advance include Point Pleasant's John Kinnard (11th), Charleston Catholic's A.J. Laska (12th), Gilmer's Kevin Morris (14th), Buffalo's Tyler Torman (15th), and Buffalo's Dylan Rich (16th). There are 16 ranked runners in Region IV.