Meet: AAA Girls State Meet Predictions
Location: Cabell Midland High School
Date: To be held November 1, 2008
Predicted AAA Girls Team Results
The AAA Girls will close the State Meet on Saturday afternoon. This has to be viewed
as a two-team race. I think everyone expected University to be at or near the top of
the heap. Hurricane may have come as more of a surprise to some people, but they served
notice early that they were a force to be reckoned with and haven't backed off since.
I actually have Hurricane taking the win by 20 points. I have trouble imagining that
it will be that much, but that's what I came up with. Of course, 20 points isn't really
a lot. If the 3-4-5 runners for Hurricane drop 3 places and the 3-4-5 runners for University
move up 3 places, it's a two point game. Obviously, it's not difficult for that to happen.
Hampshire could actually factor into the mix as well. They have a very strong unit, and if
they all perform, they can be right in there. I have Morgantown in 4th, a couple points
ahead of Preston, but that is assuming that Allison Pettit runs. Cabell Midland could crack
the top five with a good day and should crack the top five if Pettit doesn't run. Jefferson
will be without Elisabeth Rust, which keeps them from being a top 4 favorite.
1. Hurricane 68
2. University 88
3. Hampshire 102
4. Morgantown 126
5. Preston 128
6. Cabell Midland 149
7. Jefferson 165
8. Parkersburg South 198
9. Buckhannon-Upshur 203
10. Capital 210
11. George Washington 335
Predicted AAA Girls Top 25
Wow...this is tough. Letitia Propst is the defending champion and top ranked runner.
She was outstanding at the State Meet last year. Ari Kasprowicz has been phenomenal
in the last two meets, beating Propst soundly at the NCAC Championships and setting
a course record on the tough John Marshall course. I'm giving the nod to Kasprowicz.
Her last two meets have just been too impressive to ignore. It's not a "gimme" though.
I've got Propst in 2nd. I dont' think anyone will be particulary close to these two
at the end. I've slotted Courtney Yaeger in 3rd. She's a very steady performer and
has performed well on the big stage. I've dropped Allison Pettit in 4th. Her health
is in question, and I don't know for sure if she's running. She did beat Kasprowicz
at the Octoberfest, and gave Propst all she could handle at last year's State Meet.
I put Alex Dent in 5th. She's the 3rd ranked runner, but she hasn't raced anyone I've
placed ahead of her since the Mountaintop Combo, where she did beat Pettit. She could
easily move up. I have Josie Crouch in 6th. For a 400-800 girl, she makes a fine cross
country runner. Chelsea Jarvis has started moving up the ranks late in the season and
could be poised for another jump. Megan Truelove has been very steady throughout the
season after Winfield's move to AAA and has beaten Dent, Crouch, and Jarvis during
the season. McDonald has been very strong throughout as well. At Geico, she beat
Crouch, Jarvis, and Truelove, but that was 6 weeks ago, so the relevance isn't particularly
high. Alyssa Boucher may be the most improved runner in the State. She's triggered
breakthrough provisions four times in her rise toward the top of the ranks. Anyone
in the top 25 really could crack the lineup. Andrea Nickerson runs very close
to Boucher and had a stellar performance at last year's State Meet. It seems
rather absurd to have a top 10 State Meet prediction without a Martinelli in there.
Danielle Lewis took a giant step forward in the middle of the season, triggering
breakthrough provisions in three consecutive meets. Chelsea Clark is always a threat.
There could be legitimate arguments all the way down to # 25. Rana Conneway was 11th
last year.
The predicted top 25 are as follows.
Place Score Name Year School
1 1 Kasprowicz, Ari 12 Preston
2 x Propst, Letitia 10 Elkins
3 x Yaeger, Courtney 12 Wheeling Park
4 2 Pettit, Allison 12 Morgantown
5 3 Dent, Alex 11 Hurricane
6 4 Crouch, Josie 11 Hurricane
7 5 Jarvis, Chelsea 12 Capital
8 x Truelove, Megan 12 Winfield
9 x McDonald, Jordan 11 North Marion
10 6 Boucher, Alyssa 11 Jefferson
11 7 Martinelli, Sarah 12 University
12 8 Nickerson, Andrea 11 Jefferson
13 9 Martinelli, Lydia 11 University
14 10 Lewis, Danielle 9 Hampshire
15 x Clark, Chelsea 11 Fairmont Senior
16 11 Williams, Rachel 12 Cabell Midland
17 x Voreh, Erica 9 Bridgeport
18 x Sall, Andrea 12 Parkersburg
19 12 Hayslett, Kristen 10 Hurricane
20 13 Azevado, Christine 12 Capital
21 14 Guyer, Carissa 10 Hampshire
22 15 Ridenour, Karli 9 Preston
23 16 Seebaugh, Sara 10 Park. South
24 17 Barlow, Stephanie 11 Buck-Upshur
25 18 Conneway, Rana 12 Hampshire