Meet: A-AA Girls State Meet Predictions
Location: Cabell Midland High School
Date: To be held October 27, 2007
Predicted A-AA Girls Team Results
Grafton has been the big dog in the rankings all season long and pulled off a stellar
regional run to cement themselves as the favorite. That being said, they're the least
strong favorite of the four races. Shady Spring gave them a scare at Geico and then
pummelled them at Chick-Fil-A. Shady Spring has a very strong front five. If all
five hit a good day, they'll run away with the meet. That has rarely happened, though.
Their 2-5 girls have been maddeningly inconsistent. Shady can win this thing, but
they can't suffer an implosion. Grafton has been far more consistent and has to be
the favorite. Frankfort is very strong through their front five, particularly the
front three. They'll likely have three in before anyone else. If four and five,
the Moreland's, have a good day, they're very much in the game. They did come within
a point of Grafton at the Berkeley Springs Invitational. Charleston Catholic looks to
be a bit back on paper, but they've come on a bit late in the season and will be ready
to move up if anyone falters. Berkeley Springs has used a late season breakthrough
by Chelsea Hessler to move back up in the ranks. The return of Ardath Osborne (her
first race of the season was the regional, but she finished 14th at the State Meet
last year) gives them some upward mobility. Winfield has struggled a bit late, but it
would be silly to rule them out of moving up the ranks. They did thump Charleston
Catholic as recently as October 3rd and actually knocked off Shady Spring (albeit without
Desiree Roseberry in the lineup) that same day.
1. Grafton 71
2. Shady Spring 79
3. Frankfort 89
4. Charleston Catholic 118
5. Berkeley Springs 126
6. Winfield 138
7. Ritchie 140
8. Williamstown 165
9. PikeView 170
Predicted A-AA Girls Top 25
Rachel Buser is positioned well to win her 4th title in as many years. She'll have to
avoid the ailments that plagued her in a couple meets this year, most recently at the
Apple Valley League meet, to retain that title. If she's healthy, she may finish before
anyone else gets onto the track. Things get very convoluted after Buser, though. At
the beginning of the season, it looked like Megan Truelove had a lock on the 2nd spot.
Then Rebekah McBride emerged as the frontrunner for the spot. But now, Truelove has gotten
knocked off by Chelsea Callaway twice and Ally Hoyer once in her last three meets. McBride
was beaten soundly by Chanel Alexander at the regional meet. Alexander has been beaten
by Aly Carpenter on 4 occasions. Carpenter, in turn, was just beaten by Jennifer McFarland
at the Regional Meet. It should all make for a very fun race. I've given the nod to
McBride for the 2nd spot. She needs to run a smart race, though, to hold that spot.
Truelove gets the nod for third. In her losses to Callaway, she ran very poorly losing
a combined 44 points in the two meets. I don't know the circumstances behind those races,
but she at least somewhat righted the ship with a breakeven race at the Regional. Chanel
Alexander gets a tentative nod for 4th, although she appears to fair better on more
difficult courses (I don't count Midland in that group), which could leave her very
susceptible to a drop in the standings. Aly Carpenter is the pick for 5th, on a generally
solid, consistent season and a strong regional outing. Chelsea Callaway lands at number
six off her two recent wins over Truelove (granted Truelove scored poorly those meets, but
part of the reason she scored poorly was how well Callaway ran). Jennifer McFarland
is the pick for 7th. Those in front of her better beware...get away from her before the
last hundred meters. She has a great finish when needed. Ally Hoyer is the 8th pick
based on her exceptional regional run. If she duplicates that, she'll likely finish
higher. Molly Summers has been very steady for Grafton, usually not far behind Alexander.
Kari Mundey is a two-time All-Stater, giving her a history of performing on the big
stage. She also beat Alexander and Summers at the Berkeley Springs Invitational, meaning
she's definitely a threat to move up. It's really not much of a stretch to think that
anyone inside the top 25 has a shot at getting into the top 10. One great race is all
it takes.
1 1 Buser, Rachel 12 Berkeley Spr.
2 2 McBride, Rebecca 10 Frankfort
3 3 Truelove, Megan 11 Winfield
4 4 Alexander, Chanel 10 Grafton
5 5 Carpenter, Aly 10 Ritchie
6 6 Calloway, Chelsea 11 Shady Spring
7 X McFarland, Jennifer 11 St. Marys
8 7 Hoyer, Ally 9 Chas. Catholic
9 8 Summers, Molly 10 Grafton
10 9 Mundey, Kari 12 Berkeley Spr.
11 X John, Jessie 9 Wheeling Cent.
12 10 Manning, Melanie 12 Ritchie
13 X Hall, Blayke 9 Moorefield
14 11 Tappe, Allison 11 Frankfort
15 X Coffman, Emily 12 Doddridge
16 12 Armentrout, Brittney 11 Frankfort
17 13 Osborne, Emily 11 Shady Spring
18 14 Rea, Nici 10 Williamstown
19 15 Poston, Kaylen 10 Grafton
20 16 East, Chelsea 9 PikeView
21 17 Sheridan, Nora 12 Chas. Catholic
22 18 Roseberry, Desiree 9 Shady Spring
23 X Dormagen, Ryan 10 Ravenswood
24 19 Rooper, Holly 12 Winfield
25 20 Paine, Kelsey 11 Shady Spring