Meet: AAA Boys State Meet Predictions
Location: Cabell Midland High School
Date: To be held October 27, 2007
Predicted AAA Boys Team Results
Wheeling Park has distanced itself a little from the field late in the season, due in
large part to the emergence of #5 runner Russell Mulley. Cabell Midland is very solid
and has good depth. It's a little hard to gauge them against everyone because they rarely
ran against the upper echelon teams. University blew everyone away at the Mountaintop
Combo. They've swooned a bit late in the season, but I'm betting that's in part due to
training through the Conference and Regional meets. They are very much a threat to win
the meet, but they'll need a big step-up performance from Sam Spanovich or Andrew Rhodes
to make it happen. University showed last year that it can certainly pull off step-up
performances. Jefferson is an afterthought in most people's minds, but they shouldn't
be. They finished only 57 points behind University at the Oatlands Invitational and
did so without Kory Farmer at that meet and with Chris Ledden still working his way back
into shape. Ledden is a threat to rejoin the top 15, but Farmer is going to be the key
for Jefferson. The Regional Meet was his first outing since September 25th, and he ran
very poorly. He was running State top 20 caliber races at that point including a top 10
at the Geico Classic. If Farmer returns to his mid-season form Jefferson's in the ball
game. Fairmont Senior looks like a distant 5th without David Ciarolla, who is out with
a stress fracture in his foot. They're very solid in their remaining group, but I don't
think they've had a meet yet in which the top 5 all ran well. If that happens, they
could surprise and slip into the front four.
1. Wheeling Park 56
2. Cabell Midland 77
3. University 88
4. Jefferson 98
5. Fairmont Senior 151
6. Hampshire 159
7. Elkins 167
8. St. Albans 190
9. George Washington 215
10. Capital 217
11. Parkersburg 252
Predicted Boys AAA Top 25
Ryan Beabout has been at the top all season long, and I don't see anything that makes me
think otherwise for this meet. David Bias and Cory Hampshire will battle for second. I
actually changed this pick a few times before settling on Bias. I started with Bias,
then changed it to Hampshire, who has actually been more impressive late in the season,
but I eventually went back to Bias since he did pull away for the win against Hampshire
at the Geico Classic. That was a long time ago, though. John Binotto will have had another
week to get over a slight ankle injury. He's been very solid all year, even knocking
off Hampshire a couple times. Things get extremely tight after that. Alex Zurbuch has
been the most consistent of the group, so he gets the nod for 5th. Kyle Gramlich has
proven to be a good big-meet performer. Chris Cole always seems to step up his game at
the State Meet. David Caldwell only ran a few meets this year, but was very impressive
in each. Zach Tennant may actually be the most likely of this group to crash the front
three, but he's been very inconsistent. Craig Pritt, like Cole, seems to really step up
for the big meets. He'll have to if he wants to repeat as an All-State performer.
There could be a lot of movement in this field. I can honestly see anyone in the top
21 or so squeezing into that all important top 10. There are even a few oddballs outside
the top 25 that have the potential to really turn one out and provide a major surprise
(Adam Woodruff, Thomas Osborne). If anyone in any of the four sets of predictions has
something to complain about, it's probably Cody Pellicone. He's beaten Craig Pritt every
single time they've raced, and yet I've still picked Pritt. Pritt has been closing that
gap all season. It was 50 seconds at Mylan Park. It was down to 29 seconds at East
Fairmont, followed by 20 seconds at the Mountaintop Combo. Toss out the Buckhannon meet
because Pritt just went for a walk instead of racing. The gap was only 3 seconds at
the conference meet and 2 seconds at the Regional.
Place Score Name Year School
1 1 Beabout, Ryan 12 Wheeling Park
2 2 Bias, David 12 Cabell Midland
3 3 Hampshire, Cory 11 Jefferson
4 4 Binotto, John 11 Hampshire
5 5 Zurbuch, Alex 12 Elkins
6 6 Gramlich, Kyle 11 Wheeling Park
7 7 Cole, Chris 12 University
8 X Caldwell, David 11 So. Charleston
9 X Tennant, Zach 11 North Marion
10 X Pritt, Craig 11 Preston
11 X Pellicone, Cody 9 Morgantown
12 8 Beckett, Trey 11 Cabell Midland
13 9 Schiffbauer, Matt 12 University
14 10 Haldeman, James 12 Fairmont Senior
15 11 Wojcik, Logan 10 Wheeling Park
16 12 Frohnapfel, Adam 11 University
17 13 Burgess, Jordan 12 Capital
18 14 Bennett, Jason 11 Wheeling Park
19 15 Queen, Nolan 10 Cabell Midland
20 16 Ferguson, Josh 12 Elkins
21 17 Elliott, Ethan 11 University
22 18 Ledden, Chris 12 Jefferson
23 X Provenzano, Phillip 12 Brooke
24 19 Doughty, Brandon 9 Jefferson
25 20 Meyers, Dustin 11 Parkersburg